lafrisbee
Active Member
I only gave you a "Helpful" as a reaction to this post because a " GOLD STAR" wasn't an option.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
The "value" of the car and the value of the stock are similar in one respect, it only matters if you are selling.
Just HODL your car, enjoy it, and accept how Early Adopters will always pay more to get the shiny new toy before the masses do.
If you insist on rating your "enjoyment" based upon what you can sell it for (when you have no intention of selling), then you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Take a moment to consider why you are doing that.
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Costs are volume dependent. As Berlin and Austin ramp, those cars cost less to make.
Costs are credit dependent. As Tesla brings local cell manufacturing on-line, the IRA will lower costs. Panasonic/ Nevada is already local (one of them is getting the credits and savings pass on).
Costs are manufacturing dependent. As Tesla ramps up in house 4680 DBE lines, pack costs drop. As Tesla improves all lines, costs drop.
Costs are BOM dependent. Tesla has pulled out USS and switched to an in-house radar. HW4 (at present) has fewer cameras.
Costs are design dependent. Tesla has the real world warranty and usage data that allows them to revisit over-designed parts.
Costs are delivery dependent. As Tesla adds regional production, cost to deliver are reduced. As Tesla smooths delivery rate, costs are reduced.
Operating profit is gross profit across all lines dependent. If OpEx is not significantly impacted by additional product volumes, gross profit travels straight to the bottom line (sans taxes). As Tesla adds in positive margin Semi, Cybertruck, Megapack, Gen ?, OI increases.
Operating profit is infrastructure cost dependent. As the Tesla fleet ages out of warranty, service center costs will reduce. As Superchargers open to the public (and Tesla fleet grows), they become a revenue stream.
Operating profit is debt dependent. With a ton of cash, a chunk in investments, and paid down debts Tesla derives income even when standing still.
Pricing is future looking. When costs were expected to rise, Tesla adjusted up. With costs going down, they are lowering prices. Tesla is skating to where the puck will be. They'll want to price based on the expected average costs of a payment adjusted period. That means lower margins at the start and higher at the end.
Tesla retroactively gives outstanding orders the option of newer pricing (option because resetting the car and FSD may not be a good deal). Having a reduced backlog means less retroactive impact in play.
Stock price is random number dependent, good luck predicting that...
Costs are credit dependent. As Tesla brings local cell manufacturing on-line, the IRA will lower costs. Panasonic/ Nevada is already local (one of them is getting the credits and savings pass on).
Costs are manufacturing dependent. As Tesla ramps up in house 4680 DBE lines, pack costs drop. As Tesla improves all lines, costs drop.
Costs are BOM dependent. Tesla has pulled out USS and switched to an in-house radar. HW4 (at present) has fewer cameras.
Costs are design dependent. Tesla has the real world warranty and usage data that allows them to revisit over-designed parts.
Costs are delivery dependent. As Tesla adds regional production, cost to deliver are reduced. As Tesla smooths delivery rate, costs are reduced.
Operating profit is gross profit across all lines dependent. If OpEx is not significantly impacted by additional product volumes, gross profit travels straight to the bottom line (sans taxes). As Tesla adds in positive margin Semi, Cybertruck, Megapack, Gen ?, OI increases.
Operating profit is infrastructure cost dependent. As the Tesla fleet ages out of warranty, service center costs will reduce. As Superchargers open to the public (and Tesla fleet grows), they become a revenue stream.
Operating profit is debt dependent. With a ton of cash, a chunk in investments, and paid down debts Tesla derives income even when standing still.
Pricing is future looking. When costs were expected to rise, Tesla adjusted up. With costs going down, they are lowering prices. Tesla is skating to where the puck will be. They'll want to price based on the expected average costs of a payment adjusted period. That means lower margins at the start and higher at the end.
Tesla retroactively gives outstanding orders the option of newer pricing (option because resetting the car and FSD may not be a good deal). Having a reduced backlog means less retroactive impact in play.
Stock price is random number dependent, good luck predicting that...
Yup. The 2018 X75D was 80k MSRP. If Tesla could get MX to qualify for the tax credit, that would be good.
I think you meant 2 weeks
I do think Tesla should raise prices in a few weeks which actually causes more buying. Just like stocks, people want the rock bottom prices so they wait..until price goes up and then they fomo in.
Not sure about the shipping side of things but last quarter the Tesla team themselves weren't expecting big immediate tailwinds from dropping commodity futures prices, partially because of the lag going from commodity futures to product. Those lithium futures prices specifically are also spot prices, not large contract prices, and there is likely a lag before spot prices will affect large contracts.To be realistic, the effects on sales are only part the story.
Check the Renault reaction to glimpse the larger issue; driving the world auto kicking and screaming into the future.
These messages do serve the TSLA mission, whether or not they appeal to any of us at a given time.
OTOH, check out the plummeting prices of major cost categories for Tesla now:
Container freight index from Shanghai to Rotterdam 2023 | Statista
Container freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam oscillated dramatically between January 2019 and August 2023.www.statista.com
Only refer to two major costs for Tesla, both dropping by roughly half since their peaks last year. There are other lists here and elsewhere that detail numerous categories.
Lithium Prices Slide As Surplus Of Key EV Battery Material Looms
The lithium price decline is accelerating. One firm sees new supply creating a surplus in 2023.www.investors.com
Bluntly, the people who forecast earning catastrophe this afternoon are neglecting large cost tailwinds during the quarter, and that ignores scale benefits and manufacturing economies.
So, regardless of this afternoon's results, cutting prices everywhere is reflecting the quite huge cost reductions per unit for vehicles and stationary storage. Under these conditions price reductions seem obvious.
After that the US IRA and other such developments combine with services revenue to paint an interesting remainder of 2023. All this is making me go longer...
Materials being used to build batteries/vehicles right now today could have been procured months ago at higher prices and current futures prices might not show up until months later when those futures become physical deliveries of materials that are then manufactured into finished product. Nickel for example, current Nickel futures prices are contracts for delivery of physical product in June. After Nickel is delivered in June, it still needs to be received and turned into actual batteries that end up in vehicles, however long that process takes and how much nickel the manufacturer already had on hand and needs to burn through before getting to their June-delivered inventory.
Now efficiency of scale, that should be a more immediate positive impact
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lafrisbee
Active Member
Curse you!It is already happening! Those cars were almost all BEVs!/s
Parking garage collapses in NYC, killing 1; 5 injured
One person has been killed and five have been injured in a parking garage collapse in lower Manhattan’s Financial District. Officials say cars were crushed as concrete floors fell on top of each other like a stack of pancakes. Authorities believe everyone inside has been accounted for, but...apnews.com
I read the article (Which I never would have bothered) and even watched the useless video (again I never would have), because YOU hid the "/s". (I read as well as I ever did. Olive in the SRA's. I felt so mad at the world. I hated olives, and gold is where the money was)
Seriously, here were quite a lot of limos and panel trucks that routinely used the place. The New York Times reported slab cracks and missing structural beams as long ago as 2003:It is already happening! Those cars were almost all BEVs!/s
Parking garage collapses in NYC, killing 1; 5 injured
One person has been killed and five have been injured in a parking garage collapse in lower Manhattan’s Financial District. Officials say cars were crushed as concrete floors fell on top of each other like a stack of pancakes. Authorities believe everyone inside has been accounted for, but...
One Dead in Parking Garage Collapse in Lower Manhattan
A portion of the four-story Ann Street structure fell in, leaving cars stacked atop one another and rubble down to street level.
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lafrisbee
Active Member
A second post that would have gotten a "GOLD STAR." Two in one day? It couldn't have anything to do with this being an earnings report day??? (The real brainiacs dusting off their keyboards)
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
With constantly increasing sales volumes the fleet won't be aging out of warranty for a long time.
the difference is the investor motivation :
greed motivated
mission motivated investors such as myself are happy with the price cuts
years ago many here where complaining there was no $35K Model 3 ... we are basically there
Even though Tesla is not going to lower prices more in China for now, the market is pricing in the possibility of Chinese EV manufactures throwing in the towel for the US market due to what Tesla is doing. There's absolutely no way for these EV manufactures to gain any traction when their cars are 20-30k more than a Tesla since they don't quality for the tax credit plus shipping cost/import tax/etc. Company like Nio pride themselves on battery swapping, which is a major infrastructure build that cost way more in the US using US labors, then add to the fact they need service centers and delivery centers.
I believe it's safe to say new chinese EV competitors are DOA, and legacy auto are barely hanging on since lots of them use Chinese sourced materials.
True, on a percentage of fleet basis.
One hopes warranty work as a percentage of sales decreases over time, while time will cause all older cars to need parts (if only brakes and suspension).
Does Tesla self lease much outside of the US? Q4 had 15k leased. If 2/3 US, that's 10k * $7,500 commercial clean credits = $75 million. (With some amortized impact for pricing)
Haha, well 67% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck so lets just say making bad financial decisions is part of the culture. I have talked at least 2 people who makes 18 dollars a hour out of buying a Tesla.
So you think that in the what 2 weeks since the last USA price cut Austin has ramped enough to cover the price reductions?
Krugerrand
Meow
Not intentionally. Tesla is following their mission statement. The incumbents were warned a decade ago; copy us, work with us as we work toward sustainability. Do this or die. I love a dramatic death scene, especially when it’s deserved.
I hope Tesla stops reporting GM and every other financial metric that WS bats around as an excuse to falsely price TSLA. I don’t want Tesla to lie about their financial health, I just want them to do it their way, the way that makes sense for them.
I’m sick to death of people micromanaging Tesla, thinking they know more. If you (and you know who you are) know so much about building and growing an EV company and how best to transition this planet, then get off your lazy butts and show us all how great you are. Otherwise sit down and shut up so you can learn how much you don’t know.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I don't remember these articles as heavy SUVs started outselling sedans...Lagacy OEMs and ICE media getting really desperate with these ricidulous claims.
Heavy EVs Could Collapse Old Parking Garages: Report
Cars keep getting heavier, and experts are worried that aging parking garages simply weren't built to cope.www.thedrive.com
I think Tesla have learned their lesson from the past so they now set introductory price that is high just to get the initial set of orders. They are not a fan of setting the price too low and then increase prices later. This is something they used to do and shot themselves in the foot too many times, later having to increase the price which not only have you missing out from the people who would gladly pay more, but now you are stuck with lower demand with the rest of the people.
Cybertruck, Model 3 35k, Original S 40kwh pack are good examples of their major F-up. New Model S/X refresh is an example of them starting a new pricing strategy.
SebastienBonny
Member
Bonzai! Some say people won't buy a Tesla now, because prices will keep dropping, but they forget a couple of things:
- Some people are happy with the current price (or any price) and buy anyway;
- Doubters will wait until Tesla raises prices again and wil buy then to avoid even higher prices (like you say).
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