Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CarpeDiem00]

Worth more than Apple and Aramco combined is approximately saying Tesla can sustainably earn as much as Apple and Aramco combined, or around $200B/year. The goal of 20M vehicles/year and 1.5 TWh/year of stationary batteries plus the other smaller business units could do it, if Tesla's competitive positioning continues to let them deliver better products with a superior cost structure. The TAM is enormous for both automotive and energy, so it's basically a question of scaling up and keeping margins decent.

You can book it that the Model X is next in line for price cuts. It will be significant, probably around $30k. The car currently valued cannot compete with upcoming line up. So these margins will be reduced.

Elon has one end game - get market share and force people on his network of superchargers and have enough of a lead in the electric car game to have leverage of government and infrastructure.

 

[CarpeDiem00]

What did Tesla say to make you think Tesla is a luxury brand?

Mercedes sells fewer than 3 million cars a year worldwide. Toyota sells about 10. Tesla is selling 2 million this year, and 20 million in 7 years. It's pretty clear what market Tesla is targeting.

What did Tesla say?? In CAD $ the model Y was priced at 100k and the Model X at 200k with all the bells and whistles. Not to mention every car enthusiast website lists them as luxury cars. Elons been fooling us and now he’s dropping the prices because the cars don’t cost as much, but he will tell us he magically fixed the supply chain and that’s why the costs are reduced.

 

[Singuy]

Are you people okay? Are all of you on some kind medication? Lol trading in iPhones? Go to an Apple Store and trade in your iPhone and see what they give you for it. Yeah the trillion dollar company is just giving their new iPhones away for free. Please have an intellectually honest conversation.

How about all the people that bought these cars for significantly more? Some paid over ten thousand of dollars or more. We all knew Tesla had high margins but it feels like Elon has been screwing over his base to make us feel like Tesla is a luxury brand when in fact it competes with Toyota and VW at the most.

You pay nothing with an eligible trade in. Either Att is subsidizing or Apple is...don't know who but most people in the US doesn't really pay for phones anymore. They just keep trading them in.

https://www.att.com/buy/phones/apple-iphone-14.html?offerID=22100052&source=EC1NvImlp0000000P&tfn=homesolutions&WT.srch=1&wtExtndSource=att+iphones&ds_eid=700000002596606&ds_cid=71700000099867174&ds_agid=58700008008606467&ds_kids=p72842732752&&&&&gclsrc=aw.ds&&gclid=CjwKCAjw__ihBhADEiwAXEazJk3QrA9rV_ddVhzU5hwFdkmtNew0-zQWhvNLjC-xFbebO1Xt_N6vFxoCJhsQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

 

[Gigapress]

You can book it that the Model X is next in line for price cuts. It will be significant, probably around $30k. The car currently valued cannot compete with upcoming line up. So these margins will be reduced.

$30k cut all at once? To $65k base? Really?

Elon has one end game - get market share and force people on his network of superchargers and have enough of a lead in the electric car game to have leverage of government and infrastructure.

I'm pretty sure this is the end game: Master Plan Part 3 | Tesla

 

[Singuy]

What did Tesla say?? In CAD $ the model Y was priced at 100k and the Model X at 200k with all the bells and whistles. Not to mention every car enthusiast website lists them as luxury cars. Elons been fooling us and now he’s dropping the prices because the cars don’t cost as much, but he will tell us he magically fixed the supply chain and that’s why the costs are reduced.

LoL you a troll or something? Tesla doesn't have a supply chain issue...obviously given the amount of cars they pump out.

 

[Hiline]

Don't feed the troll...

 

[CarpeDiem00]

$30k cut all at once? To $65k base? Really?


I'm pretty sure this is the end game: Master Plan Part 3 | Tesla

Why is that hard to believe?
I purchased my model 3 for over $75k CAD
And now it’s going to sell for $40k CAD after rebates

Righhhhht, the “master plan 3”.

 

[NicoV]

The Model Y AWD LR is now selling for the same as it was when I bought it.

“Massive Price Drop”.

Teslas are finally entering into true price competition with ICE vehicles.

I looked up my invoice for my 4 year old Model 3 LR and it cost 3K euro more than today’s price. With all the noise about price reductions, I’d expect it to cost much less than that.

 

[Ogre]

What did Tesla say?? In CAD $ the model Y was priced at 100k and the Model X at 200k with all the bells and whistles. Not to mention every car enthusiast website lists them as luxury cars. Elons been fooling us and now he’s dropping the prices because the cars don’t cost as much, but he will tell us he magically fixed the supply chain and that’s why the costs are reduced.

Model Y AWD LR is exactly the same cost as when I bought it.

“Magically Fixed the Supply Chain”.

Tesla management has said outright that raw materials costs are way down. Likewise they are $3,000 subsidies on the MY AWD. That’s a 7.5% cost cut by itself. Nothing magic about anything.

 

[CarpeDiem00]

LoL you a troll or something? Tesla doesn't have a supply chain issue...obviously given the amount of cars they pump out.

Tesla Elon Musk: Tesla's Musk signals optimism for end to 'supply chain hell' - The Economic Times

The Austin, Texas-based manufacturer left unchanged its production forecast for 50% average annual growth “over a multiyear horizon,” but said issues ranging from shortages of supplies and labor to logistical problems kept its factories from running at full capacity in the most recent quarter.

m.economictimes.com

Like I said, have an intellectually honest conversation

 

[Hiline]

Tesla Elon Musk: Tesla's Musk signals optimism for end to 'supply chain hell' - The Economic Times

The Austin, Texas-based manufacturer left unchanged its production forecast for 50% average annual growth “over a multiyear horizon,” but said issues ranging from shortages of supplies and labor to logistical problems kept its factories from running at full capacity in the most recent quarter.

m.economictimes.com

Like I said, have an intellectually honest conversation

Oh look! A year-old article!

 

[CarpeDiem00]

I looked up my invoice for my 4 year old Model 3 LR and it cost 3K euro more than today’s price. With all the noise about price reductions, I’d expect it to cost much less than that.

Tesla Dramatically Cuts Prices in Canada, Model 3 Regains EV Rebate

Just like it did in several other countries in recent days, Tesla yesterday dramatically cut prices on its various models in Canada. This comes after the electric vehicle manufacturer failed to meet its delivery forecast for 2022 and lost two-thirds of its market value. Most notably, the Tesla...

mobile.guideautoweb.com

I live in Canada. That link describes it well. This was the first cut. The second of pricing is also significant.

 

[AndrewZ]

I looked up my invoice for my 4 year old Model 3 LR and it cost 3K euro more than today’s price. With all the noise about price reductions, I’d expect it to cost much less than that.

I would posit that price cuts are likely not yet over unless the macro story changes course. In the US, interest rate hikes aren’t even done yet and the Fed expects to hold rates for some unknown period after reaching a restrictive level.

If rates stay higher for longer, more is likely coming. We’re not even in recession territory, if a recession happens then who knows.

We’ll see how inventory trends after this but my initial reaction is that prices likely still have wiggle room and to hope any recession is very shallow and short. The next potential wrench will be the IRA credit disqualification starting next year if batteries contain any Chinese components, depending on how strictly that is interpreted by the Treasury.

 

[Gigapress]

Time will tell. As we've seen from the price cuts, the auto market doesn't work like the smart phone market. Apple doesn't pull a demand lever by cutting the RRP of their products. They refresh their products every year. How often does Tesla refresh their models? To do 20M vehicles a year at a model refresh rate of 6 years would mean they need to sell 120M vehicles to 120M different families over 6 years. That is a lot. I'm simplifying things because they sell more than 1 model but you get the idea.

Apple + AramCo = $5T.

Tesla Master Plan Part 3 estimates 240 TWh of storage needed. That's 240 billion kWh. What's the lifetime profit per kWh going to be for Tesla? If it's maybe $50/kWh and Tesla will sell 100 TWh of the total then that's already $5T pre-tax profit.

Sell 20M vehicles per year at $5k average gross profit apiece for 25 years and that's another $2.5T.

This is very approximate guesswork and doesn't factor in time-value of money, tax, or solar, but it's definitely plausible that Tesla's net present value of future cash flows is worth $5T (excluding AI stuff, as Elon did when making the Apple+Aramco projection). Massive TAM plus advantages on both value and cost that appear insurmountable for competitors from my vantage point today.

 

[Ogre]

I don’t get this.

The whole time prices were in the $60k range Musk was talking about “Embarrassingly High Prices” and how they would lower them when they had the chance. The commodity bubble was exceedingly well plotted out with lithium, nickel, steel, and other commodities selling for 5-10 times what they have been.

Tesla has said the plan was to bring prices down so these cars are more affordable.

They are making good on their promises. Now people want to whine about it? Like suddenly they should ignore what they’ve said and do a huge money grab?

 

[MrMoo]

I looked up my invoice for my 4 year old Model 3 LR and it cost 3K euro more than today’s price. With all the noise about price reductions, I’d expect it to cost much less than that.

Hey buddy in case you didn't know. Just a copy paste below:

The inflation rate in Belgium reached 11.27%, the highest level recorded since August 1975. Now, it rose to levels not seen since June of that year — when inflation reached 12.50% — sitting at 12.27%, the latest figures from Belgium's statistics office Statbel showed.

Apple + AramCo = $5T.

Tesla Master Plan Part 3 estimates 240 TWh of storage needed. That's 240 billion kWh. What's the lifetime profit per kWh going to be for Tesla? If it's maybe $50/kWh and Tesla will sell 100 TWh of the total then that's already $5T pre-tax profit.

Sell 20M vehicles per year at $5k average gross profit apiece for 25 years and that's another $2.5T.

This is very approximate guesswork and doesn't factor in time-value of money, tax, or solar, but it's definitely plausible that Tesla's net present value of future cash flows is worth $5T (excluding AI stuff, as Elon did when making the Apple+Aramco projection). Massive TAM plus advantages on both value and cost that appear insurmountable for competitors from my vantage point today.

No one on Wall St trusts that TSLA or Elon can do what you outlined which is why NVDA trades at 160 P/E and TSLA Trades at 50.

Actions speak louder than words and right now all I see is a CEO busy with side projects, selling stock and a company that produces more cars than it can sell.

I don’t get this.

The whole time prices were in the $60k range Musk was talking about “Embarrassingly High Prices” and how they would lower them when they had the chance. The commodity bubble was exceedingly well plotted out with lithium, nickel, steel, and other commodities selling for 5-10 times what they have been.

Tesla has said the plan was to bring prices down so these cars are more affordable.

They are making good on their promises. Now people want to whine about it? Like suddenly they should ignore what they’ve said and do a huge money grab?

Elon says a lot of things, he also said Tesla would be worth nothing without solving FSD.

 

[CarpeDiem00]

Oh look! A year-old article!

The other guy said Tesla didn’t have supply chain issues. I just proved to him that it did.

And then Elon jumped out and said “supply chain issues have been fixed” and material prices are down and that’s the reason for the cuts.

Why can’t you guys just admit that people got screwed buying these cars (at least those in Canada) by over $10k. How does that make investors like myself feel? Why would I be a troll if I have a significant holdings in Tesla not just through my vehicle purchase but through investments and I’m upset that he’s running this like a game. The added value of having a Tesla hasn’t been felt by me and I’m expressing it

 

[CarpeDiem00]

The other guy said Tesla didn’t have supply chain issues. I just proved to him that it did.

And then Elon jumped out and said “supply chain issues have been fixed” and material prices are down and that’s the reason for the cuts.

Why can’t you guys just admit that people got screwed buying these cars (at least those in Canada) by over $10k. How does that make investors like myself feel? Why would I be a troll if I have a significant holdings in Tesla not just through my vehicle purchase but through investments and I’m upset that he’s running this like a game. The added value of having a Tesla hasn’t been felt by me and I’m expressing it

Not to mention when I want to sell it, I’ll be massively taking a loss.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Not to mention when I want to sell it, I’ll be massively taking a loss.

You really need to work on your car investing skills.

 

[CarpeDiem00]

You really need to work on your car investing skills.

So I shouldn’t have bought a Tesla?