Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cab]

With regard to the "new" Model Y "Standard Range", at first I thought "It's only $3K cheaper...not sure many people would step down from a Model Y Long Range just to save $3K". However, with the Model 3 RWD tax rebate being cut in half, the distance between the Model 3 RWD and Model Y standard range may be just small enough to pull Model 3 RWD buyer UP to a Model Y SR. I'm sure it is NO COINCIDENCE that Tesla added the Model Y SR officially to the "menu" at the same time they confirmed the drop in rebate for the Model 3 RWD.

The end result may be less total buyers (those now priced out), but more profitable sales from folks stepping up the Model Y SR. Regardless, it is likely an "interim" thing anyway as project Highland will HOPEFULLY reduce production costs of the Model 3 by a significant amount (otherwise, why bother) ad, if we are lucky, start production by the Fall (hoping for sooner),

 

[JRP3]

Also, there's GOT to be a way to put solar PV on big ships somehow.

Cargo ships have containers stacked on the deck so that wouldn't work.

 

[DarthPierce]

I honestly think Tesla should do a full redesign of the X with their new manufacturing method but keep the falcon wing doors that makes it possible to retail the X at $80k. Do the whole works, front/rear casting, 4680 so they get the direct credits for the battery production.. Do away with the S entirely and devote the entire production line to the X. With the EV tax credit as it is, the S is useless. At least with the X and a major redesign, it’s somewhat possible to get it down to 80k.

The falcon wing doors are by far the #1 reason my parents want to replace their X with an S. The doors open to inconsistent heights (they almost never open fully) and are therefore constantly causing bumped heads. They like higher ride, higher seats, bigger cargo space, but hate the "flashy, frustrating, and painful" falcon wings so much another x is off the table.

Put normal doors on the X: save a ton of money on motors, sensors, finnicky assembly alignment, and have a vehicle that appeals to more (or at least different) people. Heck, make falcon wings and normal doors like round and yoke. I bet my parents would pay an extra 10k for an X with normal doors (that probably cost tesla 5k less to make).

Anyway, the S is not useless - it's faster, more range, and has doors that don't try to assassinate you.

 

[mongo]

Cargo ships have containers stacked on the deck so that wouldn't work.

Oh, there are ways...
Maybe not practical, but still...

For container ships, container dimensioned panel units (low profile) could be placed on top. Stack em out of the way when loading/ unloading, then put them back for the journey.
Easier to swap shipping container battery modules on the bottom and recharge them with shore mounted panels.

 

[Ogre]

With regard to the "new" Model Y "Standard Range", at first I thought "It's only $3K cheaper...not sure many people would step down from a Model Y Long Range just to save $3K". However, with the Model 3 RWD tax rebate being cut in half, the distance between the Model 3 RWD and Model Y standard range may be just small enough to pull Model 3 RWD buyer UP to a Model Y SR. I'm sure it is NO COINCIDENCE that Tesla added the Model Y SR officially to the "menu" at the same time they confirmed the drop in rebate for the Model 3 RWD.

The end result may be less total buyers (those now priced out), but more profitable sales from folks stepping up the Model Y SR. Regardless, it is likely an "interim" thing anyway as project Highland will HOPEFULLY reduce production costs of the Model 3 by a significant amount (otherwise, why bother) ad, if we are lucky, start production by the Fall (hoping for sooner),

The Model Y AWD doesn't need to "compete" with the Model Y LR or the M3. It competes with other brands of cars, many of which have less range.

At $43,000 after the tax credit, it is very competitive with the Prius Prime, Rav4 Prime, and many of the Kona offerings which skunked Tesla on pricing just 6 months ago.

 

[Max Plaid]

Well, considering an import levy of 10% in EU plus VAT of 20%-25% (depending on country, which is included in the price mentioned) the price in Europe seems to be in line with the price in the US.

MSX are roughly 50% more expensive in the EU than the US, MY is 15%

M3Y had prices cut the same as the US in January, MSX stayed up

 

[wipster]

I don't know, the idea of an automated corridor actually seems interesting and maybe shouldn't be dismissed in the same sense that trains don't need to conform to road routes/rules.

If an automated corridor could allow much higher speeds of travel and a constant flow of autonomous vehicles between two high-traffic routes, that's something that could provide real benefits soon. Generalized Level 4-5 robotaxis that can actually independently deal with real road conditions and don't need a human behind the wheel thus unlocking massively increased utilization and such, who knows how far away that is.

Just watch "Logan" to see one in action... in a movie at least.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1644420959690977287

 

[Max Plaid]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1644420959690977287

Nothing wrong my my MXP yoke, with the exception of the buttons being impossible to use when turning, that they need to resolve, otherwise it's great - would prefer a leather one, must admit, but wouldn't go back to a wheel

 

[hobbes]

Look at this table. Pay attention to the values highlighted in yellow. Understand what they mean — how Tesla’s sales move in relation to the overall auto market, not in isolation. If Tesla’s sales moved in lockstep with the overall market, there would be no change in its market share. Same thing for BEV sales.
View attachment 925788

I like the idea of your table, but I´d like it even better with trailing twelve months (TTM) numbers to cancel fluctuations due to seasonality and Tesla shifting cars between different countries between quarters.

 

[wipster]

Cargo ships have containers stacked on the deck so that wouldn't work.

Put them on top of the containers.

 

[navguy12]

Is the MP3 Tesla's plan or a roadmap for the world? If it's Tesla's plan, then will they be buying or starting their own shipbuilding operation? It doesn't seem crazy that they would. Find some near-bankrupt ship builder and buy it out. Elon has said that the ships need a major redesign to become electric. So why not build the whole boat? Set up solar/wind recharging stations on shipping lanes around the world. Could be one of the still secret products Tesla is working on. Throw in a Starlink terminal and the ship could be operated autonomously.

Another random thought regarding MP3: how much money will be saved from avoided health expenses because nobody is burning stuff anymore?

 

[JRP3]

Put them on top of the containers.

And disconnect/reconnect them each time containers are loaded/unloaded? Containers don't live an easy life, repeatedly installing and removing solar panels from them seems like a really bad idea.

 

[wipster]

And disconnect/reconnect them each time containers are loaded/unloaded? Containers don't live an easy life, repeatedly installing and removing solar panels from them seems like a really bad idea.

Where there's a will there's a way...

Edit: Heck, build some type of big ass solar panel canopy that opens on the top in order to load the Conex boxes. Just doesn't make sense to miss out on all that potential energy.

 

[Cosmacelf]

So, y'all remember Elon's infamous "Considering taking Tesla private at $420/share" tweet? I was playing golf that day and for some reason I actually checked twitter on the second hole fairway soon after the tweet was sent. By the third hole, I had called my broker and bought $1M worth of Tesla. I ended up buying it at $375/share (pre splits - this was August 2018).

Well, the SEC sued Elon and in the end created a $40M fund (funded by Elon) to pay back people who had bought based on that tweet.

So I submitted a claim and my calculated "loss" amount is $55,000. You didn't have to sell to claim a "loss". If you held it through the next day, your "loss" is calculated by the share price difference from $356.67, which was the stock price right before the tweet went out.

How much I'll actually get will depend on how many people file claims, but fingers crossed

 

[petit_bateau]

Where there's a will there's a way...

Edit: Heck, build some type of big ass solar panel canopy that opens on the top in order to load the Conex boxes. Just doesn't make sense to miss out on all that potential energy.

Because, physics.

I've done the maths on this a few times over the many years. You'll find some of my sums in the TMC shipping thread if you look.

From memory. Even if you carpeted the entire planform (deck area) of the ship with solar, and sailed in gorgeous sunshine at economuc cruising speeds, ypu'd only get about 10% of the energy requirement of a typical deep-sea long-distance cargo vessel.

(And that;s ignoring all the practicalities about decks having many other competing engineering requirements apart from carring a carpet of solar.)

And don't start me on the stupdity of proposing batteries for the use case of deep sea long duration large vessel cargo voyages .........

 

[Ogre]

Where there's a will there's a way...

Edit: Heck, build some type of big ass solar panel canopy that opens on the top in order to load the Conex boxes. Just doesn't make sense to miss out on all that potential energy.

Nooclear is the way.

Something like NuScale's modular design might work if it ever emerges from the labs.

I haven't looked into this mush and it's OT, but just worth pointing out that rows of solar panels aren't the solution to every energy problem.

 

[petit_bateau]

Nooclear is the way.

Something like NuScale's modular design might work if it ever emerges from the labs.

I haven't looked into this mush and it's OT, but just worth pointing out that rows of solar panels aren't the solution to every energy problem.

No. Not nuclear. For a zillion reasons.

Instead. Various combinations of.

Synthetic liquid fuels (green variety)

or

Methanol (green variety)

or

Ammonia. (green variety)

or

many shipments will vanish (oil, gas coal) or be shifted to electrified rail ( more routes than you would imagine, green rail)

Just read the energy news thread and you'll see the links to the various moves, plus commentary.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm not sure if this US data is correct for Q1. We can probably add up Europe and China and do the math, I just haven't bothered to do it yet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1644440912561594368

But if the numbers are correct, hard for me correlate Q1 2023 only being 7,000 more deliveries than Q1 2022 when you have Austin hitting 4k/week during Q1. Yes that 4k/week wasn't averaged over all of Q1. The average was likely something like 2,500/week, maybe 3,000/week. But even at 2,000/week, that should have equated to roughly 26,000 more deliveries in Q1 2023 verses Q1 2022 if Fremont production stayed the same. Now S/X are being shipped overseas so subtract out 7-8k and we're still left with 18k-19k.

Q1 US sales really were rather disappointing considering the combination of first quarter of the EV tax credits and the massive price cuts by Tesla.

The flip side is this could be Tesla's way of ending the wave and essentially not caring about whether a delivery happens in the last 5 days of the quarter or the first 5 days of the next quarter. But even still, the price cuts (though rather small on 3/Y) will surely be treated as imbalance between supply and demand.

I'm not turning bearish by any means and if we get a notice of Austin hitting 5k/week within the next couple of weeks, then you can chalk it up to the ramp of US production but this earnings call is going to be incredibly insightful into what exactly are the dynamics at play. I'm probably going to go into this earnings report with a more defensive position because if margins to compress significantly, it's gonna get ugly for the stock for a while

EDIT: Disregard....the Q1 2022 number can't possibly be correct.

 

[TesslaBull]

I'm not sure if this US data is correct for Q1. We can probably add up Europe and China and do the math, I just haven't bothered to do it yet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1644440912561594368

But if the numbers are correct, hard for me correlate Q1 2023 only being 7,000 more deliveries than Q1 2022 when you have Austin hitting 4k/week during Q1. Yes that 4k/week wasn't averaged over all of Q1. The average was likely something like 2,500/week, maybe 3,000/week. But even at 2,000/week, that should have equated to roughly 26,000 more deliveries in Q1 2023 verses Q1 2022 if Fremont production stayed the same. Now S/X are being shipped overseas so subtract out 7-8k and we're still left with 18k-19k.

Q1 US sales really were rather disappointing considering the combination of first quarter of the EV tax credits and the massive price cuts by Tesla.

The flip side is this could be Tesla's way of ending the wave and essentially not caring about whether a delivery happens in the last 5 days of the quarter or the first 5 days of the next quarter. But even still, the price cuts (though rather small on 3/Y) will surely be treated as imbalance between supply and demand.

I'm not turning bearish by any means and if we get a notice of Austin hitting 5k/week within the next couple of weeks, then you can chalk it up to the ramp of US production but this earnings call is going to be incredibly insightful into what exactly are the dynamics at play. I'm probably going to go into this earnings report with a more defensive position because if margins to compress significantly, it's gonna get ugly for the stock for a while

Does no one else but me notice that Q1 2022 numbers seem extraordinarily high compared to the previous several quarters, AND the next several quarters? Doesn't that make comparing Q1 2023 with Q1 2022 a bit of an anomaly and not a general trend? Fearing doom and gloom based on Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022 therefore seems a bit like baseless panic to me. I personally couldn't care less about the day to day or month to month fluctuations as I'm not a speculator. Just pointing out that Q1 2022 numbers seem to be an anomaly.

To put it another away, even factoring in Q1 2022 abnormally high numbers, the average quarterly sales for 2022 were ~134,000 in the US.