Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UltradoomY]

And it's not like Toyota (and other lagacy automakers) haven't have notice in China. From the article:

Industry has had plenty of warning of new emission standards​

China released its rule for stage 6 light-duty vehicle emissions limits in December 2016, so manufacturers have had 7 years to bring their vehicles into line.​

​

The “China 6 standard” is being implemented in two phases. The first phase, 6a took effect on July 1 2020 and the 6b standard will be implemented on July 1 2023.​

The big automakers are whistling as they shuffle past their graveyard, ignoring their own imminent demise, pretending the past is the future. Lol, I'd hate to be a taxpayer in Japan or Germany when these dino-sours inevitably collapse under their own bulk and lethargy.

Cheers!

I would guess because of their experience with the USA and other governments allowing the goal posts to be moved. I.E. We aren't ready!! Please make the rule another 3 years from now so we can comply. We promise to be ready...

But in this case China said.... No

 

[SOULPEDL]

you had a bet with somoe one that if the car made it there on it’s own they would pay for groceries.
It means that FSD can already generate you money.

Not quite but I like your thinking. (It can make it no problem every time, this is Chandler we're taking, I'm just picky.)

Second hint: I didn't like the map route so I del it and took the time to select my preferred route (it's also giving me more time to select the alt route than before). Normally I disengage, pass through the light to force the new route, and re-engaged FSD (by dragging the Nav bar down with my finger in case you didn't know it will go Home this easy way.) So I actually took the more tedious way (map selection). Hmmm....

Giving-it-away... The first dip I disengaged and was reported, the second one that followed was no problem... I slowed it down with the thumbwheel.

Is it sinking in yet?

 

[Stretch2727]

Nobody debates that Q1 is up YoY.

The open question is whether it’s up QoQ.

The first quarter is always tough for sequential delivery gains. Q1 is tough for the auto industry as most consumers do not want to buy a car in the middle of winter for various reasons.

If you look at the data from the past Tesla mostly stayed relative flat Q4 to Q1.

Q4 Q1
2019/20 - 112K 89K Covid effected Q1.
2020/21- 181K 185K
2021/22- 309K 310K
2022/23- 405K ???K

The US market alone is expected to drop Q4 to Q1 by a few percent but much better than expected due to improved inventory.

Cox Automotive Forecast: An Upside Surprise Expected for U.S. Auto Sales in Q1 2023

Cox Automotive, the world's largest automotive services and technology provider, forecasts new-vehicle sales volume in Q1 will increase by nearly 6% year over year, reaching 3.5 million units. Sales volume in March, the final month of Q1, is expected to be near 1.30 million, an increase of 2.6%...

finance.yahoo.com

For sure it looks like a pretty good sequential delivery gain over Q4 which is a huge win in my mind and sets up things nicely to hit the 1.8-2M deliveries for the year.

 

[Hiline]

Having said that, even with a 15k shortfall in Europe vs Q4, I still think we see a record worldwide.

Since Tesla sells all cars they build, it really just comes down to how much they produced, doesn't it? So factory utilization is the strongest indicator of unit sales. I haven't been following these metrics closely, but assuming that downtime was consistent with Q4, factory utilization should be higher and therefore we should expect a new quarterly record.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla has probably collected more revenue from FSD Capability purchases alone than Mobileye has made total lol. Mobileye is a publicly traded company under ticker MBLY, their Average System Price in 4Q22 was $56.20 (yes less than sixty dollars) and total 2022 revenue was $1.87billion.

I definitely think you're right that responsibility will be shared in the cases of these other manufacturers and the companies providing their hardware/systems.

Haha yes, I'm sure a suite of cameras, lidar, fsd chip, and the software cost car manufactures 56 dollars.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Not quite but I like your thinking. (It can make it no problem every time, this is Chandler we're taking, I'm just picky.)

Second hint: I didn't like the map route so I del it and took the time to select my preferred route (it's also giving me more time to select the alt route than before). Normally I disengage, pass through the light to force the new route, and re-engaged FSD (by dragging the Nav bar down with my finger in case you didn't know it will go Home this easy way.) So I actually took the more tedious way (map selection). Hmmm....

Giving-it-away... The first dip I disengaged and was reported, the second one that followed was no problem... I slowed it down with the thumbwheel.

Is it sinking in yet?

You were drinking again?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm practicing patience. It was obvious last week how I'm not so much when I trade. However, I also don't want to clog this thread any further.

The ans is I'm disengaging less often (for the same drive as baseline) because I'm filtering what I think Tesla should know, combined with how it's a new form of nag and even interfered with my normal commands as mentioned. The result if others behave similarly, Tesla disengagements just went down with this upgrade by having fewer repeats.

As to what it means for the bonus points (and this thread), the FSD team will have a smaller dataset from which to focus, query, and prioritize issues. This accelerates the learning process whether it is manual or automated - it's all about compute time. (Incidentally, Dojo was available for the FSD team initially, but the team chose not to use it at first because Elon allows people to completely own the problem and solutions. Drastic management difference here, and puts shade on the "late" rhetoric of Dojo recently.)

I don't think my behavior was the intended goal for adding in capability to report what happened (for example, allowing for faster queries of "trucks with deer strapped to it" edge cases). It's likely more of a byproduct, but they are pretty smart so I hear. Whether or not others start doing this, or simply stop using FSD in nagging routes is another behavior that is possible, and not sure that I like.

 

[Krugerrand]

True. But they should recognize the reality of the situation. Eg, missed projections of FSD etc. It comes down to the integrity of the company. It’s a great company but this particular area is a huge miss. They need to be straight up and realistic about it.

You have zero idea ‘the reality’ of the situation unless you’re on the AP team or you know something from a professional standpoint because you’re working on full self driving at another company doing it the same way as Tesla AND you’re in the top percentile in your field.

OMG! They’re late with a driving feature the likes of you think is impossible. What a shock. Tesla has had to restart their programming from the start at least two times while trying to solve a problem the likes of you think is impossible. Also a shock. Tesla has had to upgrade and change the hardware on the cars a couple of times as they progressed and changed their approach to the problem. OMGWTH!?

If you’re so smart, then why’d you buy FSD on your vehicle in the first place? If the company’s integrity is so damaged from a shift in FSD timeline then how exactly is Tesla outselling other OEMs in many markets, continues to rapidly expand production of their cars, and keeps recording record sales numbers and gross margins? Fairy dust?

Your argument is tired at best at this moment. They’re late. We get it. You think current FSD is useless. We get it. You think Tesla can’t solve FSD before you hit the grave. We get it. Kindly move on with your opinion to the appropriate thread as it has < 0 relevance to the current SP being controlled by MMs, hedge funds, shorts and the US government.

 

[Mengy]

The stock market seems to have really calmed down in the past few weeks. Feels like it's in a holding pattern, just patiently waiting until either something horrendous happens or the Fed reverses course.

It will be curious to see how Tesla's Q1 impacts TSLA, or even the production numbers next week.

 

[Artful Dodger]

For sure it looks like a pretty good sequential delivery gain over Q4

Yes we would expect that, after the U.S. Treasury Dept. announced IRA rebates in mid-Dec 2022 which shifted demand from 22'Q4 into 23'Q1.

Now it remains to be seen if Treasury will pull similar shenanigans on the final day of Q1 and announce that 'SURPRISE! -- as of tomorrow, no more $3,750 for China LFP'.

Personally, I think this is one of the reasons Elon went to Washington, D.C. back in January. After the Treasury stunt at the end of last Quarter, Elon had the opportunity to make public Supercharger Access a reality with Magic Dock, and (I hope) he told them the roll-out would continue s-l-o-w-l-y if Treasury tries to jerk the rug out from under 3SR+/LFP sales.

All Tesla needs is reasonable notice to make the changes to their logistics, and to notify their suppliers. Each already has the technology to resume building std rge packs in N. America w. Pansonic 2170 NCAs (that's what Model 3SR+ had when 1st introduced in Q1 2019).

Now, IRA production benefits together with lower shipping costs vs MiC LFP make the retail margins comparable to before this pending IRA regulation. It's just the mental affect of the rebate on the consumer that is at stake going forward in Q2.

So Tesla just needs reasonable notice. Tomorrow, we'll find out if this Administration will be reasonable in dealing w. Tesla (we already know what hedgies will do).

Cheers if they do; Jeers if they don't!

 

[EVNow]

Tomorrow, we'll find out if this Administration will be reasonable in dealing w. Tesla (we already know what hedgies will do).

Tomorrow we'll find out whether this Administration will bend over backwards to accommodate Tesla or actually implement IRA as intended

ps :

Manchin Legislation Halts EV Tax Credits Until Treasury Issues Guidance in Line with IRA

www.energy.senate.gov

“It is unacceptable that the U.S. Treasury has failed to issue updated guidance for the 30D electric vehicle tax credits and continues to make the full $7,500 credits available without meeting all of the clear requirements included in the Inflation Reduction Act. The Treasury Department failed to meet the statutory deadline of December 31, 2022, to release guidance for the 30D credit and have created an opportunity to circumvent stringent supply chain requirements included in the IRA. ..."

 

[AndrewZ]

Haha yes, I'm sure a suite of cameras, lidar, fsd chip, and the software cost car manufactures 56 dollars.

Yes because the average implementation is not a full suite of sensors and Robotaxi software just like Tesla's ASP is not equivalent to a fully-specced Model S/X Plaid with FSD

 

[unk45]

Notes on UK March 2023 sales, using ONLY generic news sources:
First the unusually good results for February sales, typically one of the worst months for US car sales:

UK car sales rise by a quarter as industry recovers from chip shortage

Registrations hit 74,400 in seventh successive month of growth, with electric cars accounting for 16.5%

www.theguardian.com

Second, Then consider how the BEV market is developing in the UK:

Car industry expects almost 500,000 EV sales this year as demand spikes

The SMMT uses its latest sales update to warn that the budget must address affordability and access to charging for electric vehicles, as the clock ticks down to the 2030 ban on the sale of new cars powered by petrol and diesel.

news.sky.com

Third, 'The March Hare', specifically the number plate annual year change in March, disclosed earlier in this thread courtesy of @generalenthu :

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Maybe. But seriously. Even Elon has to know that the robotaxi autonomous FSD dream is over, at least for the next decade or two. I personally don’t think it was a malicious deception on Elons or Teslas part, but they need to come clean on this fantasy of robotaxi being a reality with the...

teslamotorsclub.com

That is a quite decent summary, pointing out that the UK new car market is dominated by the twice yearly number pate changes. Of course that is not exactly unique, but now there si a massive shift to BEV happening also. Much of that is encouraged by company car benefits,
A BIG DEAL in the Uk and many other markets:
BIK on Electric Cars | (Benefit in Kind) BIK Explained for EV Company Car Drivers

Those factors are all combining to make an already very rapid shift to BEV even faster.
SO, how about Tesla Q1 results?: Clean technical, among others, reported BEV February sales were not stellar. Correct! Why? A large push by dealers and OEM's to unload excess stock of ICE, probably coupled with some promotions of some soon-to-be-discontued models:

Best new car offers February 2023 - Car Keys

Looking for a new car at a great price? Here we round-up the best current offers

www.carkeys.co.uk

Traditionally in the UK February is a very strange month. All over the UK car sellers are 'clearing the decks' for March Madness. carkeys.com lists some of them.

The final UK numbers really depend on how many of the Model Y and Model S at Southhampton and elsewhere can get registered today and tomorrow.

The wave has not yet died!

 

[EVNow]

Hmmm ....

Senate Energy Committee Chair Joe Manchin said on Wednesday he may go to court after the U.S. Treasury releases guidance later this week on battery sourcing guidance for electric vehicle tax credits.

Democratic Sen. Manchin threatens legal action over Treasury EV battery guidance

 

[Brn2Run]

Q4 to Q1 is an irrelevant measure, yoy is the important number and Europe is +70% already for those territories that report daily numbers

Wrong. Last year in Q1 Tesla could not deliver enough cars. Demand was bigger than production capacity.
So yoy is not showing a realistic picture of the development in Teslas car sales.

I know you want the market to see the prettiest picture, but what I stated above is the fair and correct way to look at it.
I expect like every quarter there is these tweets with 900% increase or decrease, with capital letters, but its just junk, to use the first word that came to mind

 

[AndrewZ]

I think it could be argued the delivery wave is expanding as vehicles are being shifted around from the larger markets that were previously supply-constrained to other/smaller/newer markets.

IE the news of crazy deliveries in Portugal, S/X deliveries happening in China, S/X orders opening up in South Korea, there's a bunch of this happening this quarter.

International shipping volumes might be increasing along with this and that might drive up costs, but who knows with how the shipping industry has been changing lately and container costs decreasing etc -- shipping costs might still end up being lower than previous quarters despite volumes increasing.

 

[unk45]

... I think UK gov will bribe companies to stay with taxpayer funds personally. In my opinion ultimately Nissan will likely be the major beneficiary in the UK's post-Brexit BEV landscape, maybe also JLR, perhaps the BMW-Mini plant one day. He thinks everyone will simply pull out of UK...

Were Nissan to be a net winner would be 'odd' since Sunderland voted to leave, IIRC, and Nissan has since ceased promoting its Sunderland plant. OTOH, there is not much of a plausible way to make that work, despite the nice new rail link that was built for them,

All this is becoming more like 'interesting days' and Rudyard Kipling might have said.
IMHO, one next move for Tesla might well be to begin some UK-specific solutions, sourcing or UK market CKD. After all some clever solutions might be beneficial for everyone.

 

[Artful Dodger]

“The Treasury Department failed to meet the statutory deadline of December 31, 2022, to release guidance for the 30D credit and have created an opportunity to circumvent stringent supply chain requirements included in the IRA. ..."

What Joe Manchin doesn't seem to know is that supply chains do not turn on a dime. It is unreasonable to expect to change the sourcing of a large critical EV component with just a few months notice. If Treasury was being realistic, they'd extend the current incentives for 3 years (enough time to create a N. American LFP supply chain), and make future benefits dependant upon making good on those plans. It's time to get the lead out, literally.

 

[AndrewZ]

What Joe Manchin doesn't seem to know is that supply chains do not turn on a dime. It is unreasonable to expect to change the sourcing of a large critical EV component with just a few months notice. If Treasury was being realistic, they'd extend the current incentives for 3 years (enough time to create a N. American LFP supply chain), and make future benefits dependant upon making good on those plans. It's time to get the lead out, literally.

It's not like EVs with batteries containing Chinese/Russian/North Korean/Iranian materials can't be sold domestically, they just shouldn't be subsidized using taxpayer money. Maybe China should be eating a loss to sell those here, or maybe they can use those batteries domestically rather than planning on building a brand new 300,000 barrel per day facility to refine oil from Saudi Arabia.

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:

Tesla and Map Data For new real time mapping.
EV and Battery Credits - Change inbound
Project Highland (Investor impact etc.) - Could Elon soft launch 1st April to avoid osborning?