Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Also worth pointing out that speeding only really improves ETA on long trips with open roads. Most of our driving is around town and in traffic so going 80 in a 65 for 1/10th of the trip isn't going to make much difference vs doing 65 the whole way.

This is how my Model Y is able to do the same trip faster than my ICE car. In my Subaru, I keep the car around 70MPH or lower on most trips because 75-80MPH puts a bit hit on fuel economy. On the Model Y, I don’t care. It definitely affects range and efficiency, but not as much and it costs less regardless. Particularly the first and last 200 miles of the trip where I’m heading to/ from home and dirt cheap power.

I tried going slower and eliminating charging stops, but it doesn’t seem to eliminate stops. So Autopilot at 80MPH most of the way on most trips.

 

[JRP3]

I don't know why everyone feels like the car must be able to do some speed racer Kung fu super human type driving before its feasible. That's like saying electric cars shouldn't exist until a 450 mile car exist.

Yes, the 35% slower robotaxi is not for everyone,

There is a difference between normal driving speeds and 35% slower, no one mentioned it needing to be speed racer. I do acknowledge that on shorter trips around 15 minutes or less 35% slower wouldn't be much of an issue.

 

[Krugerrand]

Vision doesn't have to be any better than humans' vision. If it "sees" equally well (acuity and sensitivity to EMR spectrum) but:

1. can see in 360 degrees (it can)
2. is always paying attention (it is)
3. can make better decisions (work in progress...)
4. can make above decisions more quickly (should be able to once it learns how to make the best decisions)

then it will be a much better driver than humans with equal vision.

Our roadways are designed for human vision and cognitive abilities. Not even perfect human vision as there's a fair amount of latitude as to how poor one's vision can get before one loses the privilege of driving. I see people arguing that there needs to be cameras on the front bumper to see around corners. Not true, the front cameras in the mirror console are already positioned more anteriorly than a driver's head. Seeing more into the IR/UV spectrum than a human can could maybe allow for earlier perception of wildlife at night for instance, but isn't necessary to be equally good as a human. Radar/lidar/ultrasonics could maybe add additional information that could make the autonomous vehicle better than a human, but aren't necessary to make it equally good.

While driving as good as a human may seem like a low bar, keep in mind that most accidents are not a result of the driver's vision (assuming they meet the standards for driving). Most accidents are from driver inattention, distractions, impairment, poor judgement, driving inappropriately for conditions, mechanical failure of the vehicle. None of these would be overcome with better vision.

The only failure I see for current camera positioning is there should be a forward facing camera on the driver's side of the vehicle to enable passing on 2-lane undivided highways - maybe the B-pillar cameras allow for this, I haven't seen enough footage from them to know one way or the other, but I'm skeptical. The other issue I can see with current cameras is a lack of dynamic range/sensitivity to glare when driving into the sun when it's near the horizon.

One new issue I had, was glare at night from oncoming cars as their headlights reflected off the road. One of my cameras kept throwing up a ‘I’m blind’ error in the way my pillar cameras will sometimes if the sun is shining just so. The difference in this case, was I could see just fine whereas when I get the sun errors, I typically can’t see either if I’m looking in that direction. I’ve never had this night time issue before so I’m going to have that camera specifically checked.

 

[Krugerrand]

So the new vehicles will have radar again? What about those who bought vehicles without the new radar, does FSD still work with their cars? Why drop the previous radar? Logistics? Found something better?

Yes
Yes
Because
No
Yes

 

[SOULPEDL]

In my investment thesis there are 2 primary tipping points. (1) ICE to EV adoption by the masses. IMO this has already occurred. Not to say that EV currently outsell ICE (which they clearly don't), but rather that the point at which ICE can recover has passed. I believe it will only accelerate from here. (2) Human driving to FSD (or any other autonomous driving system). This one's difficult to predict and I personally would hedge it to a decade plus. I'd be pleased to be wrong, but it seems to me that the point at which there are substantial autonomous and human drivers sharing the road will be a highly challenging one for us (the royal "us") to handle for a variety of reasons. I'm fine with time passing for (2) since (1) is pretty plainly happening after being such a pipe dream for the past several years.

You could be right on the time frame for Robo - for full adoption perhaps (20 yrs for Louisiana).

But consider roll-out might not be in US (China rules already being established) and would likely be both isolated and gradual. (Recalling how FSD features from the start were limited, could take the same approach.)

Combined with how GPT4 is clearly showing exponential growth in AI, and so I expect step changes in improvement, not gradual. 10x learning rates by year end (Dojo) and 100x next year per Elon, grain of salt... but he would know better than most. I'd think 2X better than V11 would be plenty, just sayin'.

 

[SOULPEDL]

One possible scenario... Those with FSD who also feel comfortable enough (in their regions and approved routine drives) could allow it to go without driver or occupants. This is hardly a savings (one way trips with zero occupants), but it would naturally provide a level of easing based on driver confidence and the area it serves. Think baby steps, and maintain high confidence at all times.

 

[Singuy]

There is a difference between normal driving speeds and 35% slower, no one mentioned it needing to be speed racer. I do acknowledge that on shorter trips around 15 minutes or less 35% slower wouldn't be much of an issue.

People want the car to see through fog, to have cameras where the front lights are to see over blind spots humans cant, and they want every cm measured and the entire city mapped. If xray vision is avaliable people want that in their cars too. Only thing missing a is red cape with a S symbol on it.

Or the world can just reduce their driving speed..but no we can't have that.

 

[gsmith123]

Don't forget thermal cameras and all Tesla's need to talk to each other and share sensor data in real time !!

 

[Krugerrand]

One possible scenario... Those with FSD who also feel comfortable enough (in their regions and approved routine drives) could allow it to go without driver or occupants. This is hardly a savings (one way trips with zero occupants), but it would naturally provide a level of easing based on driver confidence and the area it serves. Think baby steps, and maintain high confidence at all times.

Not a bad idea. Every time I show someone FSD for the first time, they freak out/are nervous. Every time someone drives my car on FSD for the first time, they freak out/are nervous. I experienced that too.

As you (read me specifically) become more familiar with what it can and can not do, you become more comfortable and confident - under certain circumstances. You begin to ‘test’ it under more intricate, complex, and difficult situations to find the limits and to define for yourself when you need to be a more vigilant driver. Some people don’t do the above, are unable to do the above. They should use Uber until FSD is no longer Beta.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Not a bad idea. Every time I show someone FSD for the first time, they freak out/are nervous. Every time someone drives my car on FSD for the first time, they freak out/are nervous. I experienced that too.

As you (read me specifically) become more familiar with what it can and can not do, you become more comfortable and confident - under certain circumstances. You begin to ‘test’ it under more intricate, complex, and difficult situations to find the limits and to define for yourself when you need to be a more vigilant driver. Some people don’t do the above, are unable to do the above. They should use Uber until FSD is no longer Beta.

Further, driver approval could be route specific based on zero disengagements. This eliminates TSLAQ, as they cannot allow something that the car cannot already do on it's own - perfectly... 3 Times in a row. All depends on confidence levels.

 

[mongo]

"SpaceX will be ready to launch Starship in a few weeks, then launch timing depends on FAA license approval. Assuming that takes a few weeks, first launch attempt will be near end of third week of April, aka …" - Elon Musk

I fully believe there will be full sized V2 sats in orbit this spring (early to mid 2023) and significant coverage by Fall 2023.

So that in the US Tmobile phones won't ever go to 0 bars. The only question is when will Tesla switch away from AT&T as the cell provider in the cars? Can the cars with LTE modems just accept SpaceX/Tmobile data with a software update?

Right, but AD referenced the "mini" V2s they are launching on F9.

As to cell compatibility, a major feature of Starlink cell is that is apprears exactly the same as a cell tower, just much futher away. So the cellphone software needs to allow for the longer roundtrip timing. However, it also needs to support the t-mobile frequency band (10MHz of G band of 1.9 GHz PCS (LTE 25), 1910-1915 and 1990-1995MHz). From the searching I just did, the as-of-2018 modem didn't support G. It does support nearby frequencies, so might be able to get updated via software (with appropriate FCC documentation) .

Satellite is not initally intended as primary coverage, but Tesla could theoretically switch terrestrial service providers, band allowing.

 

[totoro722]

It is truly amazing that we ALL so blatently and unapologetically chose to ignore the law in regards to speed limits. I'm no different, it is just amazing, when you think about it, that this has been allowed to become the accepted norm. Can you thimk of any oyher law that is so universally ignored?

Dan

I recall a time when speed limits were largely observed. During the 1970’s Arab Oil Embargo, the highway speed was dropped from 65 to 55 to reduce fuel consumption. At that point, massive disobedience of speed limits emerged as people were too angry to go along with 55 mph. Once that behavior emerged, it has not gone away. Pity.

 

[2daMoon]

This is just the beginning. As Tesla reiterates with future updates the speed at which you get to work gets faster and faster while keeping the same safety risk. Tho lots of people has zero problem spending 30 mins on the road reading a book vs 20 mins driving themselves.

I don't know why everyone feels like the car must be able to do some speed racer Kung fu super human type driving before its feasible. That's like saying electric cars shouldn't exist until a 450 mile car exist.

Yes, the 35% slower robotaxi is not for everyone, until one day it is for everyone, just like a 60 mile EV1 was not for everyone, but it have a demand from a bunch of people, but it has to start somewhere.

In other words, just because you may be able to beat an elevator to the next floor by running up the stairs in no way correlates with people not taking the elevator because they know it is slower, or, them holding out in taking elevators until they are faster.

Once a passenger is able to do something useful, productive, or entertaining with their time, rather than driving, the fact that the robotaxi will be a few minutes slower will be forgotten. Particularly when you really wish you had a few extra minutes to finish the show, game, document, etc. you are engaged in when the taxi reaches your destination.

 

[totoro722]

In other words, just because you may be able to beat an elevator to the next floor by running up the stairs in no way correlates with people not taking the elevator because they know it is slower, or, them holding out in taking elevators until they are faster.

Once a passenger is able to do something useful, productive, or entertaining with their time, rather than driving, the fact that the robotaxi will be a few minutes slower will be forgotten. Particularly when you really wish you had a few extra minutes to finish the show, game, document, etc. you are engaged in when the taxi reaches your destination.

You may be right about some people as passengers, however I suspect others will be gnashing their teeth and worrying over every minute. Not everyone will react the same way.

 

[Ogre]

In other words, just because you may be able to beat an elevator to the next floor by running up the stairs in no way correlates with people not taking the elevator because they know it is slower, or, them holding out in taking elevators until they are faster.

Once a passenger is able to do something useful, productive, or entertaining with their time, rather than driving, the fact that the robotaxi will be a few minutes slower will be forgotten. Particularly when you really wish you had a few extra minutes to finish the show, game, document, etc. you are engaged in when the taxi reaches your destination.

Tesla will need to work on the noise cancellation so you don’t have to listen to the guy behind you honk his horn after the third hole in traffic you didn’t shoot into.

 

[Rarity]

Does anybody have a good sense of how much cash Musk has? A couple billion?

 

[Curt Renz]

Similar bills are now being considered by the Florida legislature. If passed and signed by Gov. DeSantis, Elon Musk may not remain as supportive of DeSantis' presidential ambitions. I emailed the governor and my two Florida legislators to state my objections to these bills. Other Floridians here may also want to relay their opinions to Florida politicians.

This Forbes article is ten years old, but it certainly applies to current state attempts to force Tesla to contract with franchised dealerships;
Strangling Innovation: Tesla vs. 'Rent Seekers'

 

[dhanson865]

Right, but AD referenced the "mini" V2s they are launching on F9.

As to cell compatibility, a major feature of Starlink cell is that is apprears exactly the same as a cell tower, just much futher away. So the cellphone software needs to allow for the longer roundtrip timing. However, it also needs to support the t-mobile frequency band (10MHz of G band of 1.9 GHz PCS (LTE 25), 1910-1915 and 1990-1995MHz). From the searching I just did, the as-of-2018 modem didn't support G. It does support nearby frequencies, so might be able to get updated via software (with appropriate FCC documentation) .

Satellite is not initially intended as primary coverage, but Tesla could theoretically switch terrestrial service providers, band allowing.

You are right that Artful Dodger was on a different thought path, I just wanted to extend the conversation on to the next level.

I'm not as worried about the frequency as I am the SIM. Will it be able to authenticate on the Tmobile network with the existing SIM or will every car have to go in for a sim swap? Does it have a physical SIM or is it an E-SIM?

Next level if they have to swap sims they might as well swap radios to get a newer radio in the loop. I don't know if a swap is required, but newer hardware might handle it better even if the old hardware can do the right band(s).

If they can switch it would seem they would be planning to do so. SpaceX will be have peering agreements with Tmobile and once that goes live it'll be cheaper and more functional to use that network (from Elon's view or SpaceX's view, maybe a wash for Tesla?). I agree the sat is not the primary source but if peering agreements are in place it seems right to switch away from AT&T and towards T-Mobile if the cost to Tesla is close to the same and the added backup path to sat increases coverage.

 

[Skryll]

I recall a time when speed limits were largely observed. During the 1970’s Arab Oil Embargo, the highway speed was dropped from 65 to 55 to reduce fuel consumption. At that point, massive disobedience of speed limits emerged as people were too angry to go along with 55 mph. Once that behavior emerged, it has not gone away. Pity.

'I can't drive - 65!' Frei Fahrt fuer freie Buerger

 

[keydiver]

I recall a time when speed limits were largely observed. During the 1970’s Arab Oil Embargo, the highway speed was dropped from 65 to 55 to reduce fuel consumption. At that point, massive disobedience of speed limits emerged as people were too angry to go along with 55 mph. Once that behavior emerged, it has not gone away. Pity.

That was also the time when a cop would pull you over for doing only 3-4 mph over the speed limit. Tough times. Today, in my state, they only pull you over if you are going >10 mph over the limit, and most people are doing 15 mph over.