Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GhostSkater]

NACS has a 1000 volt version. Assuming sufficient HV to Ground isolation, a Vx cabinet can stack AC to DC modules to double the output voltage.
Paired with a Megapack, the cabinet output is closer to 1 MW.

View attachment 914068

The issue I'm saying is the opposite, how it will charge on V3?

While V3 is likely capable of 1000V according to wk057, the plug isn't, which means either some of the alternatives above, or Tesla has to replace all the cables on all the V3s

 

[dhanson865]

This makes sense to me. I have read here in the past few days that the plan is to have Giga Monterrey built in about 12 months. I also read that a Tesla executive said it will be producing Gen 3 vehicles in 18-24 months. What I have not read is, what will the factory be producing in months 12-18?

Test cars that don't get sold, just like Berlin did for so long.

Factory gets built, equipment gets installed, people get hired, people get trained, test cars are built. Lots of stuff happening with almost no output at first.

 

[unk45]

Ah, the racist ploy of a skilled debater

I've been to most south american countries. You haven't, but perhaps you have been to the Bahamas. The per capita income in the Bahamas is double that of the wealthiest countries in South America.

Tesla undoubtedly has a South America plan, but its not absorbing the output of the new factory. It also wouldn't just include the new vehicle.

Somehow you miss the point. You're quite confident despite being a bit clueless.
As a former owner of a Bahamian island, a resident of more countries than you may have visited as a tourist and a citizen more than one I have firm opinions.

One such opinion is that generalizations built on general data do not ever provide useful decision support. You will see in five years time or so, just what effect Tesla can bring to these 'benighted shores'.

 

[MP3Mike]

If I recall correctly Tesla still hasn't drawn on any of the German factory grants. They were conditional on battery manufacture in Berlin. Hard to see when Berlin is actually going to be able to get its hands on any 4680 kit to execute on that.

They had to decline the funding, and now do not qualify. The reason: because it required the first production of that battery technology be performed in Germany, and because of permitting/building delays Tesla ended up making the production 4680s in the US first.

The problem is not with the 800v architecture per se, but rather the electronics on the cars equipped with 800v architectures. For instance, the 800v Porsche Taycan can pull 130 kW on a V3 supercharger.

Only if you paid for the upgraded DC-DC converter when your car was speced. Otherwise it is limited to 50kW just like the Lucid Air.

 

[Ogre]

It's crazy how the Tesla community went overboard with this especially when the master plan presentation talks about the next gen car being painted separately which reduces paint. In that context, Tom didn't say anything new because paint is expensive, hence why they are reducing paint usage. It is NOT a silver stainless car.

Eh.

I don’t believe they said Gen 3 would be painted. They said “the parts that need to be painted” get painted. Parts on the Cybertruck will be painted.

I mentioned above, Tesla threw out a few red herrings during the event. This is definitely one of them. Not clear at all if Gen 3 will be painted. Or perhaps it varies from one model to the next.

 

[Singuy]

Eh.

I don’t believe they said Gen 3 would be painted. They said “the parts that need to be painted” get painted. Parts on the Cybertruck will be painted.

I mentioned above, Tesla threw out a few red herrings during the event. This is definitely one of them. Not clear at all if Gen 3 will be painted. Or perhaps it varies from one model to the next.

Yeah but the animation at that moment in time shows red painted panels.

 

[Gigapress]

Not the same, that's why must keeps talking about haerdness.

But I've convinced myself that there is no exoskeleton, so not the 3mm first talked about either.

How did you convince yourself of that? It’s foundational to the entire concept of the Cybertruck. Exoskeleton is still the first listed feature on the Cybertruck page on Tesla.com

 

[unk45]

Yeah those who think Latin America would be a Tesla wasteland likely haven't spent much (or any) time there. I've had some of my most extravagant meals in Mexico City, Lima, Santiago, and Valparaíso. And Sao Paulo, Rio, and Buenos Aires are all world class cities. 5 of the top 11 restaurants in the world are located in these regions.

The World’s 50 Best Restaurants | The List and Awards.

So while the average per capita income is lower, there is plenty of wealth in my opinion to soak up many thousands to millions of Tesla vehicles

Thank you! I have never had better meals than at Nagamaya, Oteque, Grade and a litany of others. They are all well above the best to be found in, say, Miami. Bizarrely they're also a fraction of the price of those in other hemispheres. I saw my first Brazilian Model Y just outside Clan, considered among the best in Rio (bias alert: my nephew is an owner).

That is relevant mostly because the parking for all those places is filled with brands and models that would fit easily in Monte Carlo.

Of course the data suggests nobody actually buys those cars. Obviously not./s My block is the stuff of 'The Truman Show'. It cannot exist.

So processing a passport application at the US Consulate. I ahem no apartment number, I live in a single family house. Helpful American, "you must have an apartment number", faced with the insistence I put C (for Casa ie house). That worked. That again reminds me that few Americans imagine the rest of the world at all, even if they nominally live in such a place.

Luckily for us as TSLA holders the management of Tesla, beginning with Elon, is not myopic so will just sell wherever there are buyers.

I apologize for my attitude. It gets quite tiresome dealing with the extreme myopia common to the USA. I know, land of my birth, but my family roamed the world so I never learned to be sufficiently ignorant.
Sorry, it's been a tough day...

 

[Xepa777]

That video is as real as the Tesla 2016 autonomy drive. Optimus is probably earlier stage than Teslas FSD program back then. And we know their first use case is going to be building cars for gen 3 before anyone even thinks of getting it into their homes. So that’s easily 5+ years out.

Having discussion around Optimus is fun, but any serious conversation about it is so detached from reality. I remember when people in 2018 were talking about Tesla having a fleet of self driving semi trucks for its own supply chain and here we are in 2023 with a single pilot customer. Keep expectations in check.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Only if you paid for the upgraded DC-DC converter when your car was speced. Otherwise it is limited to 50kW just like the Lucid Air.

That upgrade is a $460 option on the Taycan. I guarantee there's at least a few owners kicking themselves for not ponying up for that.

 

[Ogre]

Whether Tesla can sell 20m cars by 2030 reminds me of the goal to have robotaxi's available this year. A great goal but not happening.
If Tesla produces more cars then Toyota (10.5m) that would still be a success IMO. It will very challenging to produce 5m cars by 2025 let alone another 15m cars annually on top of that just 5 years later. None of this though should stop Tesla from trying to accomplish what seems to most an impossible goal. Along the way Tesla will make great things happen no matter if they make the goal or not.

It’s a poor analogy.

Robotaxi is either working or not. It is a binary. One day Robotaxi does not exist, the next it does. If they are 5 lines of code short of releasing final FSD, it just trundles along in this weird half finished state we see now.

Ramping production is a progression. If Tesla is 5 cars short of 20m vehicles per year, every step between here and there generates huge profits.

Robotaxi also has an amorphous objective. Nobody really quite knows what the final version of Robotaxi looks like. Does it require Dojo running? Maybe something beyond Dojo event? what about onboard hardware? Is Hardware 3 enough for Robotaxi or just FSD? Without knowing the full scope it’s impossible to know how close to the finish line you are.

Shipping 20m cars is by definition a much more knowable problem. It’s easy to measure progress and see when they are on track. They’ve even given us a benchmark for it.

It’ll be a challenge, but there will never be this big void of time where we’re in the dark about progress. Obviously we won’t know what their full plan and progress is, but we know where we are on the curve at any given moment.

 

[mongo]

In 1969 that was certainly true.

Today making such a video would be trivial.

None of which presents any opinion on how real the demo shown at investor day was-- but the objection a fake video would be hard with modern CGI and video editing capabilities simply ain't so.

Not that simulation is hard, but that the level of effort and attention to detail that would have been involved in this video to make it look real vs just being real does not seem reasonable.

Another couple examples: the robot is not shown releasing the connector latch, just pulling on the cable. Release and pull is easy in CGI but hard IRL.

The screens on the PC in the corner power down during a scene break.

Could these have been deliberate choices to add verisimilitude? Sure, but I don't think so.

 

[KBF]

Please, as has been asked of everyone who has made such a statement, show us the supporting fact-based evidence regarding how this "damage to his reputation" you go on about has impacted sales.

Regarding the "bored" people, as long as Tesla are selling cars as fast as they can produce them there is no substantiation to mimic the legacy sham of multi-branding a single design, or offering myriad versions of the same model with a facelift as if they are somehow different and the customer is missing out if they do not upgrade today. Much less, adopt this method of creating additional models to compete in the same space, just so some buyers can feel unique.

If they want to feel unique, they can buy someone else's EV, then get their Tesla after their experience shows them how being "special" may not have been the choice bringing the most value to their life.

Tesla vehicles are a paradigm shift in the ownership experience. Now, instead of having to replace a car that wears out in 100K miles, buyers will purchase a car that could reasonably last 1 million miles while requiring less maintenance. Imagine, a car that could be passed down through generations.

Tesla puts all the goodies into every car they make, then, they update every car they have sold to keep it as current as possible and do so without charging extra for the value this provides. For me, this trumps the reasoning of purchasing a car because it has slightly different styling changes from last year. (though, if Tesla can improve functionality and a by-product is a styling change, that is always good)

I agree. For those that want to be special, there are some pretty amazing wraps and custom aftermarket paint jobs. For those that are 'serious' about being unique instead being fooled by advertising into pretending they are special, custom alterations are the only way to go...

 

[Gigapress]

The gen 3 has to be separated in price from the model 3. The Y and 3 are currently in supply/demand balance in the U.S. The only way the next gen can sell more cars is to be significantly under $35K.

Tesla is selling about 40K vehicles/month in the U.S. The market is no longer supply constrained. How do you expect Tesla to get to 400K per month if not by price?

The 3&Y supply-demand equilibrium is only in the short term. In the long run, demand is exponentially increasing. Still today, most of the US population knows little to nothing about these products. Awareness remains low.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Tesla recalls 3,470 Model Y vehicles over loose bolts

Tesla said it is recalling 3,470 2022 through 2023 Model Y vehicles in the United States

www.cnbc.com

Maybe another buying opp tomorrow

 

[Captkerosene]

300+ miles range at $50K. Dream on.

Today we don’t have a 300 mile range Y at $50k, and there is no way a much bigger vehicle with a brand new design & tech with volumes that are going to be low initially will be priced at $50K.

$70K+ would be more realistic. Lets not overhype the specs and the cost

Gen 3 is a manufacturing methodology, CT will be the first Gen 3 product. Add exoskeleton, SS, 4680, castings, HW4, 48V, no paint and armored glass to the mix. (This truck is going to be one hot ticket.) Almost every design choice leads to CT being a better product .... but, also, with a lower cost of production. If Tesla is forced by strong demand to add 20K+ to the price on top of already good margins ... and then add big FSD revenues to that ... well, as a shareholder ... I will not object.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Not that simulation is hard, but that the level of effort and attention to detail that would have been involved in this video to make it look real vs just being real does not seem reasonable.

Another couple examples: the robot is not shown releasing the connector latch, just pulling on the cable. Release and pull is easy in CGI but hard IRL.

The screens on the PC in the corner power down during a scene break.

Could these have been deliberate choices to add verisimilitude? Sure, but I don't think so.

I'm not a gamer either, but I suggest you take a look at some of the new photorealistic games like Red Dead redemption 2 and Ghost of Tsushima. Those games are orders of magnitude more difficult to program than a few minutes of non interactive Optimus action in poor lighting.

 

[Singuy]

That upgrade is a $460 option on the Taycan. I guarantee there's at least a few owners kicking themselves for not ponying up for that.

Would a Taycan owner even know you need a 460 dollar option to get a faster charging rate? Why are OEMs making things so difficult? Guess this is why they call Tesla the apple of the world. "It just works".

 

[Singuy]

Tesla recalls 3,470 Model Y vehicles over loose bolts

Tesla said it is recalling 3,470 2022 through 2023 Model Y vehicles in the United States

www.cnbc.com

Maybe another buying opp tomorrow

Nope, even cnbc are not expecting a drop in stock price from this recall. Typically they like to save the juicy and most damning article to be released late premarket Monday morning.

 

[Singuy]

Not that simulation is hard, but that the level of effort and attention to detail that would have been involved in this video to make it look real vs just being real does not seem reasonable.

Another couple examples: the robot is not shown releasing the connector latch, just pulling on the cable. Release and pull is easy in CGI but hard IRL.

The screens on the PC in the corner power down during a scene break.

Could these have been deliberate choices to add verisimilitude? Sure, but I don't think so.

You know what Tesla did was to make all of these background stuff as detailed as possible so you think it's real, but make the front and center stuff like the plug pull sus. Maybe they blew their 100M CGI budget building the shutting down screen in the background and ran out of budget trying to get the cable pull animation right.