Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

Repeater camera hardware upgrade seems doable. I had some glare on mine at night (due to turn signal glare) and paid to have them replaced about a year ago. Cost under $500, took 5 minutes and I kept the old cameras as spares.

Time may result in some upgrades eventually. Just my guess.

 

[MP3Mike]

BYD possibility channel stuffing their cars.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628184997839654912

This seems to back that up:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628188611626799104

 

[y_naught]

Maybe start dollar-cost averaging if you're considering investing more? Perhaps a $5 drop triggers a buy of 100, another $5 triggers another buy of 100, etc.

Or go with an even more opportunistic method:

SP @ 195 buys 50
SP @ 190 buys 75
SP @ 180 buys 100
SP @ 170 buys 200
etc.

But wait! In your scenario, an investor wants to put in 0over $75,000. You suggest he puts in less than $10k (12% of the desired investment) and what advice if the price rises? No one knows where the market will go, but it’s certainly better to DCA specified amounts on a time basis regardless of price (whether 10% per month over 10 months or 100% once) than to try to outguess the price?

 

[Hiline]

Maybe start dollar-cost averaging if you're considering investing more? Perhaps a $5 drop triggers a buy of 100, another $5 triggers another buy of 100, etc.

Or go with an even more opportunistic method:

SP @ 195 buys 50
SP @ 190 buys 75
SP @ 180 buys 100
SP @ 170 buys 200
etc.

I’d prefer the 401k-style dollar cost averaging: buy the same amount of money’s worth, say $10k, per week:

Week 1: 50@200
Week 2: 45@220
Week 3: 55@180

Etc.

This way you don’t just stop buying past a certain stock price.

 

[Thekiwi]

This seems to back that up:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628188611626799104

Isn‘t his how most of the auto industry operates? THey sell to dealerships who sell to consumers.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Isn‘t his how most of the auto industry operates? THey sell to dealerships who sell to consumers.

Yes, but the problem is that manufacturers can intentionally oversell to dealers to make their books look good for a quarter. It's called channel stuffing.

 

[Surfer of Life]

But wait! In your scenario, an investor wants to put in 0over $75,000. You suggest he puts in less than $10k (12% of the desired investment) and what advice if the price rises? No one knows where the market will go, but it’s certainly better to DCA specified amounts on a time basis regardless of price (whether 10% per month over 10 months or 100% once) than to try to outguess the price?

Exactly. Every time I hear “Dollar Cost Average” it grates on me like chalk screeching on a board.

Isn’t “Dollar Cost Averaging” just fancy talk for “try and wait to buy some a little cheaper"? (Emphasis on “try”).

 

[Surfer of Life]

No pumpkins on this beast. Just go straight over the rocks. (Turn up the sound... is this CT motors or steering maybe?)

Tesla Cybertruck prototype spotted with its air suspension cranked [Video]

We already know the Tesla Cybertruck will come with adjustable air suspension, but a new video has emerged showing just how high the electric pickup truck will be when the air suspension is adjusted to […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Ground clearance 16" and flat bottom. So the bottom would be at my knee cap level.

The only video I saw on that link is a scam video with crappy music and photos of old model S’s.

 

[Ogre]

Isn’t “Dollar Cost Averaging” just fancy talk for “try and wait to buy some a little cheaper"? (Emphasis on “try”).

Not at all. It is literally the opposite of ”Waiting”.

Dollar cost averaging simply means you buy a shares on a regular basis and don’t worry about the share price. The whole point of DCA is that market timing is nearly impossible and “Waiting for a price” is frequently another way of saying “Missing the bus”.

Buy shares every month when you get your paycheck and don’t worry about what the SP is. That is DCA.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The only video I saw on that link is a scam video with crappy music and photos of old model S’s.

Recommend looking for this on that same page.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628287649059377155

Troy seeing low growth from 2022Q4 for 2023. I had a different understanding of what Elon said during the ER, imo Tesla's 2023 target is not 1.8M but >2M and Tesla intend to make and sell every car they can even if they have to lower margins to do so. But this is the bear case if the world goes into a severe recession, if it doesn't then expect strong margins. That was my interpretation.

I think Berlin 150k for the year is way too low. Time will tell who is right this time, I give Troy cred for standing strong in his beliefs and having been right a few times in the past.

 

[hobbes]

This seems to back that up:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628188611626799104

Was just going to say that the gap might be due to exports, but the table seems to have an extra column for that, too:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628209636150218752

 

[jeewee3000]

Repeater camera hardware upgrade seems doable. I had some glare on mine at night (due to turn signal glare) and paid to have them replaced about a year ago. Cost under $500, took 5 minutes and I kept the old cameras as spares.

Time may result in some upgrades eventually. Just my guess.

Yes but the HW4 repeater camera's will be higher resolution (and possibly have a slightly different viewing angle if the above pics are truly HW4) so your HW3 FSD computer won't know what to do with this data stream. The FSD computer is built for the resolution of the camera's in its same hardware suite. HW3 FSDchip can't handle higher resolution. (too much data to process and keep a decent framerate up)

 

[jeewee3000]

From an investment standpoint I would say insignificant.

Do you mean the cost of upgrading ~750k no-USS HW3 cars to HW4 is insignificant or do you mean forget about those 750k people that were "unlucky" with the timing of their purchase?

I hope Elon sticks to his word regarding Tesla should always do the right thing.

 

[hobbes]

I assume this is the HW4 cameras:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628126330486411265

An article:

Tesla Model S/X Builds Spotted with New Autopilot Cameras, No Rear Emblems, Steering Wheels [PICS] - TeslaNorth.com

We’re not sure how The Kilowatts do it but they always seem to be in the right place at the right time, and now they have come across the latest Model S and Model X builds from Tesla’s Fremont Factory, that contains new upgrades. The most interesting discovery by The Kilowatts was new Autopilot...

teslanorth.com

So I think we can assume that at least some HW4 Model S/X are in production right now.

No additional cameras seen by kilowatts (who took the pictures), which contradicts verygreens finding of additonal plugs for cameras on HW4 board...

That would obviously make retrofit more likely after all, but unlikely they add capability for more cameras to board and then don´t use them. Different number of cams for different cars?

 

[Max Plaid]

Did our bit for Q1 today... GF4 Quicksilver MYLR

Very interesting, this is a recently opened delivery centre in south Brussels, it was packed with cars, 100's of them, I asked if they were inventory or sold, the Tesla guy told me they are "all allocated" (this photo is just a part of the case they have waiting)

Huge step-up in numbers from previous years. BAF

 

[15Peter20]

In bad weather, AP now gives me "speed limited" regularly and slows down. Very annoying. Didn´t do that when radar was still active. Might have to do with higher speed limits in Europe though.

Same problem on 40MPH roads in fog or even just heavy rain. Never did this with radar.

 

[Huskyf]

Same problem on 40MPH roads in fog or even just heavy rain. Never did this with radar.

In certain countries you have to adapt your speed when is bad weather if you have an accident your insurance can not paid if they find you travel to fast on bad condition for me the car reduced speed on weather is a good thing for example in France when dry you can go to 130 km/h and when raining you must not go more than 110 km/h in Switzerland also.

 

[petit_bateau]

In certain countries you have to adapt your speed when is bad weather if you have an accident your insurance can not paid if they find you travel to fast on bad condition for me the car reduced speed on weather is a good thing for example in France when dry you can go to 130 km/h and when raining you must not go more than 110 km/h in Switzerland also.

I think it is more related to the bulk of the dataset being collected in Californian conditions rather than typical muck. Yes I know that the obscured vision dataset exists and is growing, but it is by no means the norm in the publicly observed dataset examples. I really don't know how low-placed cameras are expected to cope in muck. And are we really expected to sponge clean all the cameras every couple of hours to keep going ?

 

[jw934]

BYD possibility channel stuffing their cars.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628184997839654912

Not channel stuffing, which is for OEMs to sell cars to dealers.

My understanding is that this used car dealer is claiming something fishy could be going on with BYD claimed 2022 _insured_ vehicle figures. His evidence is that he bought the fleet of cars with only 40km on the odometer at used car prices (21% off list). The car is "used" because it has already been registered as sold on Dec 30, 2022. This registration allowed BYD to claim Chinese government incentives that expired at end of 2022. If BYD only sold the cars to dealers and the dealers did not sell them to the consumer, then the total 2022 government incentive amount for BYD would have been less, and so would the 2022 "insured" volume.

The question is on the integrity of BYD business practices.