Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Max Plaid]

Traders/shareholders selling puts doesn'tforce the MMs to delta hedge and sell stock. Buying puts does that.

Each put buy has a sell and vice-versa, so...

But yes, of course the downward price pressure comes from the buying of puts... brain-fart on my side, cheers

 

[Stretch2727]

For Y, the estimated delivery window straddles the March Treasury update.
They could update Electric Vehicle & Solar Incentives | Tesla Support though.

I understood the treasury guidance delay is only for the battery sourcing requirements. I don't think the pricing caps or leasing work around will change.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/treasury-delays-guidance-on-ev-batteries-until-march-keeping-more-cars-qualified-for-tax

As far as I am concerned the guidance will not be meaningful as any manufacturer that can't meet them will likely just lease as a work around to get the full $7500 subsidy applied to their cars. There is no sourcing or manufacturing requirement for vehicle leased under the commercial vehicle requirements.

 

[Mengy]

Retail traders dumping stocks en masse including record amounts of Tesla

Retail traders unloaded $3.1 billion in assets this past week, making it the third worst week of net selling in history, according to JPMorgan.

www.cnbc.com

Are you guys dumping tsla stocks?

The unloading is likely due to margin calls down at this low share price.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe it's Buffett finally buying TSLA? He did sell all of his BYD a bit ago....

Haha, who's selling 51M shares is my question...

 

[MP3Mike]

@danahull has a piece of Tesla investors lamenting the company's "sneaky" notifying of the shareholder meeting date (in May) and deadline to submit proposals (2 weeks ago).

Life After Elon Musk: Tesla’s Board Takes Heat Over CEO Succession Planning

Tesla Inc.’s board of directors is facing mounting pressure to prove just how prepared they are for the potential loss of Elon Musk, the erratic chief executive officer largely behind the breakneck rise and dramatic fall in the company’s valuation.

www.bloomberg.com

Ironically one of the main subjects of the story is @KarenRei and her motion to have the board make a key-man risk report.

This is funny to me, because about 4 years ago Karen was helping me come up with faked emails to send Dana to expose her.

How times have changed!

I'm actually happy that Tesla did this. That means there will likely be less time wasted in the next shareholder's meeting listening to crap proposals.

If they aren't actually reading the 10-Q are they really that invested in Tesla?

 

[StealthP3D]

I understood the treasury guidance delay is only for the battery sourcing requirements. I don't think the pricing caps or leasing work around will change.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/treasury-delays-guidance-on-ev-batteries-until-march-keeping-more-cars-qualified-for-tax

As far as I am concerned the guidance will not be meaningful as any manufacturer that can't meet them will likely just lease as a work around to get the full $7500 subsidy applied to their cars. There is no sourcing or manufacturing requirement for vehicle leased under the commercial vehicle requirements.

Leasing cannot replace selling at anything close to a 1:1 ratio in this scenario, probably more like 1 lease for every 2-3 sales lost.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm actually happy that Tesla did this. That means there will likely be less time wasted in the next shareholder's meeting listening to crap proposals.

If they aren't actually reading the 10-Q are they really that invested in Tesla?

You must be an eternal optimist. It doesn't take long to write up a crap proposal! I think we will suffer through just as many crap proposals as ever, but I can dream you're right.

 

[Stretch2727]

Leasing cannot replace selling at anything close to a 1:1 ratio in this scenario, probably more like 1 lease for every 2-3 sales lost.

There is a huge arbitrage here that will be taken full advantage.

A leasing company can buy the cars at full retail price get the $7500 and then lease them at a much lower payments due to buy down on the original price. If you cannot get this discount as a purchaser why would you not lease? Most of the legacy manufacturers will do this with their internal finance department. If Tesla does not do this there will be a big opportunities for leasing companies. I am sure some will figure it out.

 

[Artful Dodger]

You must be an eternal optimist. It doesn't take long to write up a crap proposal! I think we will suffer through just as many crap proposals as ever, but I can dream you're right.

Perhaps CrapGPT will improve the overall quality of proposals? /s

 

[2101Guy]

Haha, who's selling 51M shares is my question...

Retail investors.

 

[trayloader]

Leo is buying

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611004987743797252

Is the the very beginning of a takeover? He seems to have no limit.

 

[bkp_duke]

Worse specs. IP55, operating temperature only to -10 degrees. Not acceptable in my climate for outdoor installation. That Powerwall is looking better and better.

IP67 on the powerwalls might even be an underspec:

Tesla Solar Roof And Submerged Powerwalls Survived Hurricane Ian

Tesla continues to share that its products are some of the safest and most reliable in the industry. It's peace of mind to know your investment should last.

insideevs.com

Underwater for hours, still worked without a hitch.

 

[Ogre]

There is a huge arbitrage here that will be taken full advantage.

A leasing company can buy the cars at full retail price get the $7500 and then lease them at a much lower payments due to buy down on the original price. If you cannot get this discount as a purchaser why would you not lease? Most of the legacy manufacturers will do this with their internal finance department. If Tesla does not do this there will be a big opportunities for leasing companies. I am sure some will figure it out.

Hmm. Seems like you could do the same by creating a small business to rent out your own vehicle and rent it out via Turo. Or for that matter if you are a contractor buying it for your business.

 

[bkp_duke]

Haha, who's selling 51M shares is my question...

I wish Elon would take this as an example of how to structure a trade . . .

 

[Stretch2727]

Hmm. Seems like you could do the same by creating a small business to rent out your own vehicle and rent it out via Turo. Or for that matter if you are a contractor buying it for your business.

Yep any business can get the $7500 as long as the vehicle is for commercial use including leasing for private use.

Much easier than figuring out how to mine all those battery materials and assembling batteries etc or having complicated price caps and income limits. My opinion is that allowing the leasing gutted the 30D section of the law as every requirement in section 30D can be worked around by leasing.

 

[petit_bateau]

Spoiler: OT - personal experience with LG and SolarEdge

A little concerned about this ... my personal experience:
Bought a house recently. Former owners were obviously big into solar and battery. They had originally gone with LG house backup batteries, which failed, and were replaced by other LG batteries, which failed, and were replaced... eventually with a Powerwall.
My inverters are SolarEdge - former owners did mention one of them having had problems and been replaced. Recently, our solar contractor (still under warranty apparently) came out and replaced some sort of comm modules that those inverters used, if I understood right.
I appreciate hearing your experience in this, anyway. Will eye the existing inverters with suspicion but not much else I can do here.

Interesting. My own direct personal SolarEdge experience is that out of 24 module optimisers and approx 7-years run-time and two inverters (two separate systems) we have had a grand total of one optimiser failure and no inverter failures. Detected using SolarEdge web-monitoring within a week. Replaced within a fortnight under warranty. You don't by any chance have dry earths do you ? (In the UK there is no chance of that). Over the years I've done plenty of on and off grid systems, mostly SMA, Fronius, Mastervolt. These happen to be the only two SolarEdge.

 

[Ogre]

Seems like we should be doing bingo for the Ram truck event.

You can all just make your own cards with “Full Of Fail” being a free square in the center and at all 4 corners.

 

[petit_bateau]

Is the the very beginning of a takeover? He seems to have no limit.

Indeed, where is he getting the funding from.

 

[mongo]

I understood the treasury guidance delay is only for the battery sourcing requirements. I don't think the pricing caps or leasing work around will change.

Treasury guidance is due for critical materials, components, and vehicle classification (MSRP cap).
They also oversee what is a lease vs purchase.
From the memo that defines vehicle classes:

This notice informs taxpayers that the Department of the Treasury (Treasury Department) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) intend to propose regulations under § 30D of the Internal Revenue Code (Code) (forthcoming proposed regulations) addressing the definitions of certain terms relevant to the requirements of the clean vehicle credit available under § 30D (§ 30D credit).

Combined with the extended comment period, it seems not locked in.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I can't believe people waste their time reading all that analyst gobbledygook. It's utterly useless to an investor and is often purposefully misleading. Why do you think they give away their misguided speculations for free anyway?

People on this board have a better understanding of the various fundamentals involved than most of them, and the analysts who might actually be good can't give you the straight scoop in a timely manner anyway because they have to tow the company line. Smart investors ignore them so they can focus on things that actually matter. They didn't call the breakout in 2019 in advance, and they won't call the next one out either. But some people still consider every word they say carefully as if they never learn. There's a reason Elon treats them like little parasites and won't give them the time of day.

But they sound so sophisticated and knowledgeable! /s

I wouldn't ignore all analysts.