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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I was assuming that the prices of S/X were going to be lowered more permanently due to commodity price pressure easing.

When the IRA kicks in they’ll be getting some of that sweet government cheese; even if the consumer doesn’t see a tax credit, the battery manufacturer would!
No it seems that commodity pricing wouldn't hit Tesla's financials for perhaps another 6 months according to Elon's sentiment on how there's a long lag. My take is pricing will go back to normal and Tesla will ship out all excess inventory to EU and China. There are plenty of places to absorb the production for now. Tesla MAY decrease price by the amount they get from the battery pack incentive but with demand out stripping production world wide they may just keep the prices high until end of Q when they do some made discounting to move units.

Hoping for a better market in 2023. Even if it's a 10% green market for the year would do wonders to demand for high priced products.
 
On Wednesday, I sold shares at around $112 to buy leaps. I bought a spread of January 2025 leaps mostly at strike prices a bit above where we are now and others at some higher stock prices we’ve seen this year. The shares I sold were ones I was planning to hold indefinitely and comprised less than 10% of my holdings.

This is certainly not advice. I felt I should share given my previously stated opinions about options. These remain and I do not consider this an about face.

On one hand, it’s still my opinion that it is a fool’s errand to try to time the market and I’m not planning to make a habit trying to do so or of using options.

On the other hand, I have sometimes wished I’d bought leaps instead of more shares in the Summer of 2019. Now feels so very like then. I’m not trying to hunt for something, it is simply that the circumstances are just so…ripe. Also and given the circumstances, I suppose I see an opportunity to reassure myself that my reticence to buy leaps hasn’t simply been a lack of, shall we say, testicular fortitude (ah, we men 🤷‍♂️).

Obviously, I am of the opinion that we’ve bottomed, but I’m prepared to accept it if we haven’t.

As for the moral hazard, it’s not great for other longs when shares are sold. However, it is in the interest of longs that Elon remain in charge at Tesla. While I don’t believe the comments by some investors, ahem @TrendTrader007, for change will amount to much, I want as many shares as I can get to vote in Elon’s favor should it be necessary.
 
On Wednesday, I sold shares at around $112 to buy leaps. I bought a spread of January 2025 leaps mostly at strike prices a bit above where we are now and others at some higher stock prices we’ve seen this year. The shares I sold were ones I was planning to hold indefinitely and comprised less than 10% of my holdings.

This is certainly not advice. I felt I should share given my previously stated opinions about options. These remain and I do not consider this an about face.

On one hand, it’s still my opinion that it is a fool’s errand to try to time the market and I’m not planning to make a habit trying to do so or of using options.

On the other hand, I have sometimes wished I’d bought leaps instead of more shares in the Summer of 2019. Now feels so very like then. I’m not trying to hunt for something, it is simply that the circumstances are just so…ripe. Also and given the circumstances, I suppose I see an opportunity to reassure myself that my reticence to buy leaps hasn’t simply been a lack of, shall we say, testicular fortitude (ah, we men 🤷‍♂️).

Obviously, I am of the opinion that we’ve bottomed, but I’m prepared to accept it if we haven’t.

As for the moral hazard, it’s not great for other longs when shares are sold. However, it is in the interest of longs that Elon remain in charge at Tesla. While I don’t believe the comments by some investors, ahem @TrendTrader007, for change will amount to much, I want as many shares as I can get to vote in Elon’s favor should it be necessary.
I just rolled over my 401k into my IRA and the funds are sitting in my account but I cannot trade them yet. Soooo frustrating.
 
Screenshot_20221230_170603_Gmail.jpg

That's a lot of buying...
 
Been following new Y inventory all day for my sister. Seems like they drop 20-30 new ones every hour or so and they start disappearing within minutes. Inventory generally staying below 100 cars, most of which seem to be in the Bay Area.

Just found her config in her city and booked it 4 minutes after it dropped. Btw she thinks Elon is crazy and had been averse to getting a Tesla, but she has enough common sense to buy the best car anyway.
 
This was the mistake, IMO. The Q2 GF3 C19 shutdown gave them a Mulligan to revise the annual forecast. They could have easily said they have the ambition to hit 50%, but given the lost production 45% was more realistic

Wall Street would have accepted this without a stock impact, and yet here we are. Poor expectation management, simple as that

And sure, you can blame the short-termism of the markets, but it's the pool we're swimming in

We need more under-promising and over-delivering, that's all

Edit: used the same phrase twice, which is very poor form...
Elon's gonna Elon...his forecasts have always been swing for the fences, aspirational numbers. It's how he expects and motivates his crew more than traditional leaders. Somehow wallstreet finds a way to not believe Tesla and still penalize them when they don't exceed their unbelievable and aspirational goals. It's interesting to say the least.
 
Very sobering tweet from Tesla Economist. He was one of the most bullish analysts out there. I’m not sure what he did to crash and burn his father’s retirement like this and I don’t want to speculate too much. Just wish him and his family well and hopefully we can all take a lesson away here.

Don’t get greedy. I know there seems to be a tentative optimism going into Q4 earnings season and it feels like we’re at the lowest of the low and ready for a “Face Ripping Rally”. Lets try to keep a little perspective here and manage our risk.

I still see people talking about engaging in risky leveraging with LEAPS… be careful out there.



Bullish as hell, but be aware that the market can be insane longer than you can remain solvent.

PS: Please be respectful.
 
Very sobering tweet from Tesla Economist. He was one of the most bullish analysts out there. I’m not sure what he did to crash and burn his father’s retirement like this and I don’t want to speculate too much. Just wish him and his family well and hopefully we can all take a lesson away here.

Don’t get greedy. I know there seems to be a tentative optimism going into Q4 earnings season and it feels like we’re at the lowest of the low and ready for a “Face Ripping Rally”. Lets try to keep a little perspective here and manage our risk.

I still see people talking about engaging in risky leveraging with LEAPS… be careful out there.



Bullish as hell, but be aware that the market can be insane longer than you can remain solvent.

PS: Please be respectful.
I'm not sure if he lost his dad 10M or 10M of paper gains. Or a combination of both. I can't see how he actually lost his dad 10M.
 
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