Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

That sounds like wide release is with 10.69.2

If it is, meaning no safety score required and is available to everyone to use that has purchased it, I smell FSD revenue recognition in Q3.

Gutsy move. They must feel really good about it.

 

[Singuy]

Still slowing to 2 mph in the roundabouts. That will generate some serious honking where we are. Overall looks pretty smooth though.

I think this release is the cautious version not for mass consumption. It's Tesla trying to validate if the new architecture will work as intended. You can tell that every turn is very cautious.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sounds to me like he is talking about the current FSD beta participants... the ones who already have FSD, not all who have purchased.

I’d have to say I disagree, especially when you take into context that Elon specifically said that the next price increase will coincide with wide release of FSD beta to everyone that has purchased it on the Q2 earnings call.

 

[willow_hiller]

Sounds to me like he is talking about the current FSD beta participants... the ones who already have FSD, not all who have purchased.

I posted about this above, but if you read the Q2 earnings call transcript, Elon draws a distinction between purchasing FSD and opting into FSD Beta.

He said the next price increase would come when it's available to everyone who requests it. So they'll still be "FSD Beta participants," but it sounds like it will be an automatic approval once they read and agree to the disclaimer.

 

[elasalle]

(Current)2022 Q3 Shanghai-6, SF-3 - Total 9
2022 Q2. Shanghai- 5, SFO 3 - Total 8
2022 Q1, Shanghai-15, SF -2 - Total 17

https://twitter.com/x/status/1561363640263086081

 

[henchman24]

I’d have to say I disagree, especially when you take into context that Elon specifically said that the next price increase will coincide with wide release of FSD beta to everyone that has purchased it on the Q2 earnings call.

I take him literally on his statement. When he says FSD Beta participants, he means FSD Beta participants... not those who have purchased. IMO if he meant wide release, he would simply state for wide release or all who have purchased FSD.

 

[henchman24]

I posted about this above, but if you read the Q2 earnings call transcript, Elon draws a distinction between purchasing FSD and opting into FSD Beta.

He said the next price increase would come when it's available to everyone who requests it. So they'll still be "FSD Beta participants," but it sounds like it will be an automatic approval once they read and agree to the disclaimer.

I think your first part is the very literal translation of this... the way Elon should be interpreted. The participants in the system are the ones who will get it. Currently that means safety score and Tesla sending it to them.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I take him literally on his statement. When he says FSD Beta participants, he means FSD Beta participants... not those who have purchased. IMO if he meant wide release, he would simply state for wide release or all who have purchased FSD.

Except in the very sentence above the one we re talking about, he says wide release without any mention of fad beta . I think you’re reading way too much into your way of reading it and ignoring context, especially when you factor in Elon’s comments on the earning call about when a price hike would happen.

Anyways, we can just move on about Elon’s intent in that tweet

 

[Ogre]

From where we stand, it seems like a no brainer for any new entry into the BEV field to partner up with Tesla like Aptera is doing. How big of an advantage would Honda, Suburu, Toyota have if their initial entry into BEV's was part of the SpC Network. They would instantaneously leapfrog everyone else and struggle to meet demand long after the chip/battery shortages are alleviated. Now that Tesla is opening it up, it's not as big of an advantage as long as the adapter allows full power.

I completely agree.

I think they avoid it because of Teslas “Open Patent” agreement. Which allows anyone to use their patents so long as they don’t initiate patent actions against Tesla. I suspect they are under the mistaken assumption that they have some IP which Tesla will steal which is more valuable than the Tesla patent portfolio they would gain access to.

Aptera lacks a big patent portfolio of their own so they have little to lose.

I gotta say though the US would be a lot better off if they ditched the CCS standard and went with Tesla. It’s hard to call something a “Standard” when most EVs in the US don’t use it and implementations are so varied.

 

[henchman24]

Except in the very sentence above the one we re talking about, he says wide release without any mention of fad beta . I think you’re reading way too much into your way of reading it and ignoring context, especially when you factor in Elon’s comments on the earning call about when a price hike would happen.

Anyways, we can just move on about Elon’s intent in that tweet

If you go back and read a lot of Elon's statements, a number of them don't come true or things simply change along the way making them not true rather quickly. Not that he is lying or anything, he's just too transparent on his thoughts and those thoughts can change quickly. A good example is that Austin was only going to be 4680... situation simply changed. I believe he means what he says when he says it. It might have been the plan on the next increase to go to wide release, but that plan can simply change. It makes sense to have another step of validation too.

IMO When he states FSD Beta Participants, he means exactly that. I'm not trying to parse or put any meaning to it other than what he directly says.

 

[Singuy]

I take him literally on his statement. When he says FSD Beta participants, he means FSD Beta participants... not those who have purchased. IMO if he meant wide release, he would simply state for wide release or all who have purchased FSD.

I am in this camp. I think fsd full release is v11, not 10.69. 10.69 is a brand new architecture and requires some tweaks before wide release.

Elon did say by the end of this year and not q3..and he will drag this out as long as he can to squeeze in every bit of improvement before everyone gets it.

Edit: scratch that, 10.69.2 is wide release per Elons quote about the 15k.

 

[willow_hiller]

Anyways, we can just move on about Elon’s intent in that tweet

And given the timeline Elon tweeted about price increases, I think we'll know for certain within the first couple weeks of September.

 

[henchman24]

And given the timeline Elon tweeted about price increases, I think we'll know for certain within the first couple weeks of September.

Yup, we will certainly know soon.

 

[Ogre]

It's not though (the claim of they can build a car that never crashes. Even with a 1000% perfect driving AI you can't "eliminate" all accidents, because of physics.

This is nonsense.

Ashok was not suggesting the car would avoid 100% of accidents. He was suggesting that the car can avoid all accidents which can be avoided.

You can absolutely avoid all crashes where human error (on the part of the driver) or machine error is at fault.

Obviously you cannot avoid crashes where the car (FSD) or the driver are not at fault.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Although I like the idea of Tesla making more money (obviously) it does feel that Elon's focus on raising FSD pricing is a bit optimistic. As I understand it, the FSD take-up rate is still pretty low, shouldn't they wait until FSD is selling like hot cakes before raising the price AGAIN?
I say this as someone who has reserved a performance model Y with FSD (still waiting...will be almost a year soon...).

I do see comments outside this forum from Tesla owners who say they think FSD is seriously overpriced. Given its a feature you can buy...but not even use yet unless you are judged worthy by Tesla to get into the beta... This seems like the company is getting ahead of itself.

I'd rather Tesla sold FSD to almost everyone at $10k/car than to 10% of the buyers at $15k.

Until you can legally read a book and let it do its thing...its just *really good driver assistance*, and thats assuming you are allowed into the beta.

I think the $15k is "in-between" pricing.

Up until now, many who were interested (*cough* geeks *cough*) could buy FSD as an expensive party trick (really? you prefer going across town slowly in your sub-4-sec Tesla??).

As we approach Level 5, price will +2x and FSD will no longer be affordable for individual drivers on unshared cars. It'll be the cost of doing business for robo-taxis. There'll be Teslas bought with FSD for robo-taxi use, and Teslas bought without FSD for personal use. The rare exception will be rich disabled or visually-impaired customers who want independence from taxi services and public transit.

The $15k is the we're-still-working-on-L5 price. Party trick still affordable, though less so after Sept. 5.

Conversely, the $15k is a loss leader for an entrepreneur looking forward x years until they can farm that car out @80% as a robo-taxi. Kinda like us buying TSLA today looking forward to TSLA being the most valuable company in the world in 2-5 years.

Edit: In fact, to @StarFoxisDown! 's point, the $15k is really to minimize those owners looking to be future robot-taxi entrepreneurs from getting a cheap deal on FSD now. After all, Tesla is under no short-term pricing pressure. Every price increase is a bullish sign that the current release is getting closer to full Level 4/5. (They can raise the pay-as-you-go price anytime as performance improves. But they can't retroactively get more money for buying FSD today.)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think we're at in-between pricing.

Up until now, many who were interested (*cough* geeks *cough*) could buy FSD as an expensive party trick (really? you prefer going across town that slowly in your sub-4-sec Tesla??).

As we approach Level 5, FSD will no longer be affordable for individual drivers on unshared cars. It'll be the cost of doing business for robo-taxis. There'll be Tesla's bought with FSD for robo-taxi use, and Tesla's bought without for personal use. Rare exception well be rich blind or disabled customers who want independence from taxi services and public transit.

The $15k is the we're-still-working-on-L5 price. Party trick still affordable, though less so after Sept. 5.

The more simple answer I think, is that they want to drive as much people to the subscription model as possible. With the new price hike, the monthly subscription price starts to look a lot more attractive

 

[Ogre]

I think we're at in-between pricing.

Up until now, many who were interested (*cough* geeks *cough*) could buy FSD as an expensive party trick (really? you prefer going across town that slowly in your sub-4-sec Tesla??).

As we approach Level 5, FSD will no longer be affordable for individual drivers on unshared cars. It'll be the cost of doing business for robo-taxis. There'll be Tesla's bought with FSD for robo-taxi use, and Tesla's bought without for personal use. Rare exception well be rich blind or disabled customers who want independence from taxi services and public transit.

The $15k is the we're-still-working-on-L5 price. Party trick still affordable, though less so after Sept. 5.

FSD isn’t complete until I can climb into the car after a massive day of riding, punch “Home” and promptly pass out from exhaustion.

Any intermediate step has very limited value to me. I love Autopilot and it relieves a huge driver load, particularly on long trips. But if I can’t jump in my car at midnight and sleep until I get to the first Supercharger, I don’t see why I would pay $12-15k for the upgrade. Even $6k for EAP is questionable, though I might jump on it before the next price hike just so I can perhaps lock in a lower upgrade price to FSD.

If FSD “Complete” is a $20k+ upgrade, I’m going to have a hard time paying for it. I guess it’s a good thing I reserved a Cybertruck and locked in the FSD price.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Raising FSD pricing could be just as much about the IRAct. Shifting as much cost around to things that can technically be considered post-delivery.

Funny we've had this bill passed for 5 days and the final language in front of us for weeks.....still no clarity of which EVs (and consumers) actually apply.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Although I like the idea of Tesla making more money (obviously) it does feel that Elon's focus on raising FSD pricing is a bit optimistic. As I understand it, the FSD take-up rate is still pretty low, shouldn't they wait until FSD is selling like hot cakes before raising the price AGAIN?
I say this as someone who has reserved a performance model Y with FSD (still waiting...will be almost a year soon...).

I do see comments outside this forum from Tesla owners who say they think FSD is seriously overpriced. Given its a feature you can buy...but not even use yet unless you are judged worthy by Tesla to get into the beta... This seems like the company is getting ahead of itself.

I'd rather Tesla sold FSD to almost everyone at $10k/car than to 10% of the buyers at $15k.

Until you can legally read a book and let it do its thing...its just *really good driver assistance*, and thats assuming you are allowed into the beta.

The early adopters are gonna include drunk drivers, and will likely lease it (because they spent their last $15K on a lawyer). Maybe Tesla is setting the stage for a monthly subscription increase which would excite the Accountants.

Currently this is from Tesla/support site... so we'll see if it changes as well. I think many would view, say $249/mo, as worth the the added family safety on a vacation drive. At least!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The early adopters are gonna include drunk drivers, and will likely lease it (because they spent their last $15K on a lawyer). Maybe Tesla is setting the stage for a monthly subscription increase which would excite the Accountants.

Currently this is from Tesla/support site... so we'll see if it changes as well. I think many would view, say $249/mo, as worth the the added family safety on a vacation drive. At least!

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I would actually prefer them keeping the subscription price the same, but $50 increase won’t matter much I guess

But given the price increase of buying FSD + general inflation increases where you have other auto makers charging monthly subscription fees of $50-100 for rather meaningless things (like seat warmers BMW ), $200 a month for FSD, to me, is an incredibly attractive price point and subscriptions will take off like a rocket.

I’d rather FSD subscription take off in the masses where they get hooked and really understand the importance of it and then Tesla start increasing the monthly subscription price