Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tachyon]

Tachyon, I had a brain fart and should have said "buying" rather than "selling".

Through naked shorting, some market makers created short positions that are not associated with any legitimate shares, and they need to buy shares in order to position themselves to deliver additional shares to the buyers of that original shorting activity when the split occurs.

Thank you for the clarification.
Appreciate all that you do.

 

[Usain]

 

[Bet TSLA]

Here in NYC have been paid owner of FSD since 2018. I only get to watch it on videos.

I am consistently whacked as an unsafe driver. For example, I will swerve to avoid a cavernous pothole and suddenly the parked car 30 yards in the distance lights up and my car informs me that it has taken corrective action and saved my life. I will straddle the yellow line on an otherwise empty two way street that does not actually fit two cars in either direction so that I do not roll over the continuous potholes located in the middle of the road and suddenly the alarm is blaring at me to take control immediately! (Wtf, I am driving already…) and that corrective action was taken and the car saved my life.

Despite the fact that I am the guy who everyone cuts off on the highway because I do not tailgate which means there is a space to cut in, I am routinely informed that the car had to engage the brakes to save my life and avoid a forward collision. When I take a turn and juice it a little to safely clear the intersection which only allows me short windows of opportunity to do so due to the steady and relentless traffic, I am tagged as an aggressive turner.

So despite the fact that I have NEVER hit anyone or anything over 30 years of driving, I am an unsafe driver with a high score of around 92. I have been in accidents. Rear ended once by a crazy maniac of a driver and another rear ending sitting at a stop light.

I don’t think I would be able to use it much, don‘t think FSD could handle my drive much less merge on the GCP at this point, but this does bother me. In the end I am happy to subsidize Tesla as it is a two way street, but I have paid somewhere around 30k on three different vehicles for FSD, but have never actually been able to use it.

980 today?

The safety score is designed to be a statistical correlation with drivers of cars that get in accidents. It means something important for insurance rates over a population. It means little about how safe an individual driver may be.

One thing it leaves out entirely is how many accidents are caused by, but don't directly involve, a driver. That's because the data don't exist.

So... you drive something like people who get in more accidents, but are quite safe yourself. There will always be some in that category. If you really want to be approved for FSD beta, then you know how to do it. Drive the way they want you to until you get approved.

 

[MountainRatMat]

He is hacking the system IMO like our best Tesla bear GJ. Finding shortcuts and cherry picking edge data to circumvent it's greater value while not showing the actual value. He is not showing how a slightly taller mannequin is 100% detected as an example.

I won't get in to the definition of hacking and the modern interpretation of hacking but you are technically correct. I guess I would use a different term for what GJ and Dan are doing.

Funny we are talking about this though, I was literally at a Mexican restaurant for lunch today, local news playing in the background, and the commercial came on TV. It was so bad, literally looked like someone put a little doll in the road and purposely ran it over. No in car video at all. I think it will only increase the visibility of Tesla kind of like all the EV Superbowl ads did. Thank you Dan for the free advertising.

 

[hobbes]

FSD switched lanes for a squirrel for me before, quite casually I must say while I was still contemplating my options. Switched back into the right lane after we passed it.

They say everything is bigger in America - but a 34 inch squirrel, seriously ?! Or does FSD react to small squirrels but not small children? Color me confused...

 

[MP3Mike]

They say everything is bigger in America - but a 34 inch squirrel, seriously ?! Or does FSD react to small squirrels but not small children? Color me confused...

Remember that in two of Dan's videos where they hit the dummy, FSD wanted to change lanes around it, but it couldn't because of the cones. So apparently it knew something was there and that it would prefer to go around it, but it apparently wasn't classified as something it should stop for. (Maybe as a result of trying to limit the "false braking" that people complain about?)

 

[traxila]

That would be awesome. Be nice to recoup a fraction of my > 50% income taxes paid out to the bureaucrats.

Might need some Heat Pumps to replace the HVACs in a few years as well (waiting to see if Tesla enters this space, I would prefer to give them my business).

Building a house in PA with Tesla Solar roof, powerwalls and electric across the board, two years into the damn process we finally broke ground last week.

Have to beat back the constant recommendations of fossils.

Fossils will only be allowed when I take advantage of further tax breaks to begin fracking on the property for some cold hard cash flow. Yeah, baby!

No, just kidding.

I am happy to take advantage of anything the IRA wants to give me. I promise the extra money will be used for even further Solar / electric projects. I am already planning them in fact.

All the best!

 

[Max Plaid]

Toyota Motor Corp. suspended operations at its Sichuan plant in China because of a power shortage, the Kyodo News reported on Tuesday.
The local authority has ordered the automaker to suspend operations, the report said.

Volkswagen AG also has a plant in Sichuan. The automaker’s China spokesperson said its factory in Chengdu is affected by power shortages.

CATL’s factory in Yibin, Sichuan Province, stopped production due to power brownouts, and the duration of power brownouts rationing lasted from August 15 to August 20.

Foxconn is suspending operations at a factory in the city of Chengdu from August 15 to 20 under government order.

Source: Google for Sichuan automaker, foxconn
Nothing on Tesla

Maybe there's nothing on Tesla because AFAIK they don't have any manufacturing facilities in Sichuan, or am I totally out of touch there?

 

[Ogre]

Going to steal a slide from JB Straubel‘s deck here. With a rough edit to emphasize a different point.

In the Q1 earnings call, Tesla’s management suggested that the 4680 line had realized their goals in terms of capital expenditures. That’s 12.4% of cell cost.

We’ve built the facility here in Texas, we know how much we spent on capital equipment in the facility, and it’s more than 5x less than prior technology installation, so we’re saving huge on CapEx.

So… that suggests to me Tesla’s CapEx for battery production is going from 12.4% to 2.5%. At $100/ kWh, that’s roughly a $10/ kWh savings. Drew also suggested there were pretty large reductions in OpEx, but he didn’t specify. Even a 20% OpEx reduction would result in a $3/ kWh savings. Those are huge numbers. On a Model Y LR, we’re looking at a total savings of $1000+ on cell costs.

That’s savings at the cell level, not even looking at the savings due to the structural pack.

 

[traxila]

The safety score is designed to be a statistical correlation with drivers of cars that get in accidents. It means something important for insurance rates over a population. It means little about how safe an individual driver may be.

One thing it leaves out entirely is how many accidents are caused by, but don't directly involve, a driver. That's because the data don't exist.

So... you drive something like people who get in more accidents, but are quite safe yourself. There will always be some in that category. If you really want to be approved for FSD beta, then you know how to do it. Drive the way they want you to until you get approved.

I don't want to say you must be from California, but....

I can't allow my car to hit potholes so that I don't get mistaken collision warnings. Have had my wheels bent in the past, and I am talking 19 or 18 inch.

I have actually tried driving like a grandma, but that really doesn't work out merging on the GCP. You end up causing an accident.... which I am trying to avoid.

Anyway, I appreciate the advice. I will get it at some point.

 

[Boomer19]

$TSLA totally under MM's control, changing directions at those 15 minute marks on the minute.

I wonder what is their closing strategy that they probably decided in the pre-market.

View attachment 841629

depart from the normal trading pattern to avoid detection and being front run

chart messy today

 

[MABMAB]

So much to read and catch up, I'm gonna go to Wegeners for some crudite' for a break. Then I will go to Pubics for some vodka.

 

[Speedr117]

Still with the same income restrictions?

What are they, if there are income restrictions? I'm pretty sure Solar doesn't have any.

 

[lafrisbee]

So much to read and catch up, I'm gonna go to Wegeners for some crudite' for a break. Then I will go to Pubics for some vodka.

Pubics? Is that for flavored vodka?

 

[StealthP3D]

Edit: Yup and now the tanking starts. Even a day before the record date for the spilt, there’s no buying interest. Gonna be a long month 2 months until Q3 earnings

What do you think is significant about the record date of the split? I wouldn't expect such an insignificant date to have any expectations in terms of movement of the share price. Even the actual day of the split itself could go either direction - it largely depends upon how much of the recent buying was market makers "cleaning up" their books and whether they are ahead of the game or behind it when it comes time to distribute the split shares. The rest of it depends upon the same supply and demand that normally controls the share price movements.

And, guess what? We have no real way to know until the shares make a move or they don't. So, I suggest you may benefit if you tame the manic-depressive mood that changes positions faster than a day trader on crystal meth. Unless you are a day-trader or swing-trader, an investment in Tesla is based on the value they create as they grow production, production capacity and gain efficiencies in their supply chain, their manufacturing and sales and distribution over time. Essentially, grow earnings. And they are showing us how they can do that at an astounding pace. This increase in value is what is behind the fact that many TSLA investors have 100X'ed their investments in only a decade and change and I think it's likely those gains are going to continue to compound over the next decade.

On the other hand, your perpetual handwringing is focused on the normal volatility or noise which is basically nothing more than white noise.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I don't want to say you must be from California, but....

I can't allow my car to hit potholes so that I don't get mistaken collision warnings. Have had my wheels bent in the past, and I am talking 19 or 18 inch.

I have actually tried driving like a grandma, but that really doesn't work out merging on the GCP. You end up causing an accident.... which I am trying to avoid.

Anyway, I appreciate the advice. I will get it at some point.

My actual advice is to ignore the entire issue. You paid for FSD. You have FSD as it exists today. FSD Beta is simply out of reach in NYC, and you shouldn't worry about it. Eventually, some day, FSD Beta will be good enough to be given to everybody in the US who has FSD and you will get it. There's no point in worrying about it until then. It will just annoy you.

My only point in responding was to point out that the system is *not* telling you that you are a bad driver, merely that the way you drive is correlated with drivers who get in more accidents. Statistical inference is great, but it will always get some individuals wrong.

 

[bkp_duke]

What are they, if there are income restrictions? I'm pretty sure Solar doesn't have any.

I was thinking the EV income restrictions. I had concerns that the entire bill had restrictions, but it's sounding like only on the EV portion of the bill.

 

[StealthP3D]

Didn't you see that @Discoducky found that what O'Dowd showed is true? He found the conditions necessary to make FSD beta ignore a VRU and is publicizing it. (i.e. FSD beta will hit a 30.5" tall dummy, just like his videos show.)

So, you are saying we should get to the bottom of why exactly O'Dowd is standing up for all the midget dummies that don't even have a means of locomotion? What is so precious about these dummies that are basically just cheap replicas of garden gnomes? Why is he so intent on saving them? It certainly doesn't seem normal.

Or, maybe you are saying any class action lawsuit would have to be against Tesla and would only have standing if it were brought by the garden gnome replicas? It's all so confusing regarding whose side I should take! On one hand, it's nice that O'Dowd is standing up for the little garden gnomes, but, on the other hand, I think if someone leaves their garden gnome in the middle of the street, it's probably eventually going to get run over, even if no Tesla's with FSD happen to come by. So maybe it deserves what it has coming.

 

[MikeC]

I was thinking the EV income restrictions. I had concerns that the entire bill had restrictions, but it's sounding like only on the EV portion of the bill.

It doesn't seem to be so clear yet (but not sure if the below is just for ranges or any home appliance): What the Inflation Reduction Act Could Mean for Your Next Appliance Purchase

Will You Qualify for a Rebate if You Buy a New Electric Range?​

It depends on how much you earn and where you live. Your individual state will set the exact framework, but the guidelines in the legislation call for the rebate amount to be dependent on how your household income compares with the median household income (HHI) of a particular area to be determined by the state. For instance, it may pertain to your ZIP code, county, or the entire state. If you earn:

• Up to 80 percent of the median HHI in your area, you get up to 100 percent of the cost of the new appliance (or up to $840, whichever is less).
• More than 80 percent but less than 150 percent of the HHI in your area, you get 50 percent of the cost of the new appliance.
• Above 150 percent of the median HHI in your area, you do not qualify for a rebate.

 

[Ogre]

Dan O'Dowd is living for free in some people's minds here.

I'm sure he's going to drag this out as often as possible. Very likely Tesla will quietly update FSD to fix it. Then 6 months later O'Dowd will find some other edge case to pick on.

You can't argue with people who troll like this. They are correct enough that if you try to drag it out, you look like an idiot. Tesla doesn't need us fighting this battle, these trolls will be shouting things like this long after the public has realized that FSD is just fine.

Unless its actual government action, this is just noise.