Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[oneday]

Ok so if Tesla delivers:

• Asia deliveries ~20k
• Europe deliveries ~20k
• North America ~30k

Would that be a Q1 record in 3 continents?

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

50,000 FSD purchases = $100M profit

 

[AudubonB]

MOD:
Keep the UnionsGood! UnionsBad! discussion civil - informative - or take it elsewhere.

tldr: take it elsewhere

 

[SteveG3]

Yeah, here's an extract from that page right now:

By Tom Randall
March 30, 2019, 7:00 AM EDT
Updated on April 1, 2019, 12:44 PM EDT
...
(Updates average analyst estimate of Tesla’s production in the second paragraph and replaces chart of production and delivery estimates. )​

This is a current scrnshot of the section labeled "The chart below shows analyst estimates for production and deliveries of each of the three vehicles Tesla sells."

View attachment 392741
In text format, that table reads:

.	Cars Built	Cars Delivered
Model 3	64,400	55,100
All Vehicles	84,700	74,900

Then to break out other Models, we are left to do our own math:

Model S+X: Cars Built: 20,300 Cars Delivered: 19,800​

This appears to be a correction of the original reported estimate of 26,900 Model S+X built in 2019Q1, per your tweet on Mar 30: (with no mention of a correction)

@tsrandall Confusion re your Bloomberg story today. Visible Alpha (VA) has consensus S/X production at 21K for Q1. Your report cited VA as data source but said avg S/X prod est 26.9k​

Note: per Bloomberg above, the source table in the article was "Updated on April 1, 2019, 12:44 PM EDT". Can you confirm what the table said prior to the update, but after your tweet?

Thanks!

@Artful Dodger as to your question, while I cannot be 'certain,' I believe the article was only updated that one time around 12pm Monday. In other words, I think up until that update the chart in the article remained as it was in the screenshot in post #34731 (page 1737 of this thread).

 

[mrdoubleb]

numbers from Switzerland are her S3X
https://www.auto.swiss/fileadmin/3_Statistiken/Autoverkaeufe_nach_Marken/auto-schweiz_PW_2019_3.xlsx

edit: 1243 = S3X

EDIT: deleted incorrect info

In a few days more detailed, model level data will be publish in Austria, Switzerland and Germany as well... usually 2-3 days after the brand level summary is released. The usual registration data here on TMC will be updated at that point.

PS: thanks to the anonymous user who entered the March data for Spain! that's a new source we did not know before. Having said that, I had to re-enter your data as you missed the S and X numbers on the page.

 

[mtndrew1]

50,000 FSD purchases = $100M profit

I’d bet a dollar that this number is closer to 5,000 purchases.

 

[Cobbler]

I bet for 1 dollar (payed using PayPal) that Elon will not be officially CEO of Tesla after 1th July '19. Just some title changes of his role to get rid of the SEC.
Who's willing to take on this bet?
(Only one regular user allowed ;-) )

Mod: it was a long time ago now, so you're forgiven, but making/discussing silly bets (or even non-silly ones) degenerates quickly, so this topic is instantly banned. Posts will be deleted. --ggr.

 

[AlexS]

Be careful these are not March numbers, but January-March. For the Swiss data you always need to subtract the previous months. This means Switzerland for March was 889 and Q1 totals are 1243.

In a few days more detailed, model level data will be publish in Austria, Switzerland and Germany as well... usually 2-3 days after the brand level summary is released. The usual registration data here on TMC will be updated at that point.

PS: thanks to the anonymous user who entered the March data for Spain! that's a new source we did not know before. Having said that, I had to re-enter your data as you missed the S and X numbers on the page.

please open the link, it show cumulative is 1597

 

[mrdoubleb]

please open the link, it show cumulative is 1597

I am sorry, you are right. It seems we need to update our instructions for Switzerland @Troy

Update: and Troy has already entered the correct data and I've validated it.

PS: kudos to whoever found the link to the data. When you go to the official site it is not posted yet, but if you manually change the usual link to the March file (replace "2" with "3" in the file name) it actually downloads the proper official file.

 

[ABCTG]

GM, FCA, Toyota, Nissan sales drop on weaker car demand

....aaand not a single mention of Tesla anywhere in the article!

 

[TradingInvest]

I bet for 1 dollar (payed using PayPal) that Elon will not be officially CEO of Tesla after 1th July '19. Just some title changes of his role to get rid of the SEC.
Who's willing to take on this bet?
(Only one regular user allowed ;-) )

You do know Elon's performance package requires him to stay as CEO or executive Chairman?

 

[RubberToe]

GM, FCA, Toyota, Nissan sales drop on weaker car demand

And keep in mind that gas car sales peaked in 2017, so the pie the ICE makers are fighting for is getting smaller over time. Same is true in the EU and China too.Tesla's share of the ever expending green sliver at the top is billions of dollars per year...

 

[ZachF]

And keep in mind that gas car sales peaked in 2017, so the pie the ICE makers are fighting for is getting smaller over time. Same is true in the EU and China too.Tesla's share of the ever expending green sliver at the top is billions of dollars per year...

ICE sales actually peaked in 2015-16 in the US.

 

[Big Blue 1011]

So how is Lyft at $25bn and Tesla at $48bn now?!?

I saw an analyst on TV this morning defending the valuation by comparing Lyft to Amazon. He even quoted Bezos as having said "I could make Amazon profitable any time I want, but that would be stupid."

Icelandic Fox.

I bet for 1 dollar (payed using PayPal) that Elon will not be officially CEO of Tesla after 1th July '19. Just some title changes of his role to get rid of the SEC.
Who's willing to take on this bet?
(Only one regular user allowed ;-) )

Changing titles wouldn't get rid of the SEC

 

[lklundin]

I bet for 1 dollar (payed using PayPal) that Elon will not be officially CEO of Tesla after 1th July '19. Just some title changes of his role to get rid of the SEC.
Who's willing to take on this bet?
(Only one regular user allowed ;-) )

I am already betting many orders of magnitude more than you - on the opposite.

 

[AlexS]

does anyone have any US and Canada March deliveries credible estimates, extrapolated from VINs or something. And did they start deliveries in Mexico already in March?

 

[Cobbler]

I am already betting many orders of magnitude more than you - on the opposite.

Hey,
I'm just betting one dollar, not my Tesla shares

 

[RobStark]

You do know Elon's performance package requires him to stay as CEO or executive Chairman?

They need to adjust that to " or Sun-God Emperor"

And name Elon Sun-God Emperor of Tesla.

 

[ZachF]

They need to adjust that to " or Sun-God Emperor"

And name Elon Sun-God Emperor of Tesla.

Or just "Entity"

Elon Musk, Entity of Tesla.

 

[Zaxxon]

InsideEVs US estimates: 10,000-12,000 Model 3, 2,725 S, 2,425 X.

[Edit- That's for March only.]