Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Yes, said the range was 280 ish based on charge mileage and percentage (don't recall the numbers but that math checked).

Given the EPA's new Model Y entry w. 279 mi range, I estimate* the following specs for the Austin Std Model Y:

• from cell count, I est. pack capacity at 63.4 Kwh
• from pack capacity and range, I est. Energy usage at 225 wh/mi
• given energy use for LR Model Y at 250 wh/mi, I est. Austin Std Y is 8% more efficient
• from relative energy efficiency, I est Std Y weighs ~365 lbs less than Fremont LR Y
• given lower mass of vehicle, I also est. Std Y should also cost 8% less for raw materials
• with f/r megacastings, reduced body line size, and new paint shop, imputs should also be less

*All figures are estimates. Your mileage may vary. Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear.

Cheers!

Paging @The Accountant

P.S. Producing 500k/yr Std Models Y should require about 32 Gwh of 4680 cells (only about 3.2x greater than the planned capacity of the Kato Rd pilot plant)

 

[The Accountant]

Given the EPA's new Model Y entry w. 279 mi range, I estimate* the following specs for the Austin Std Model Y:

• from cell count, I est. pack capacity at 63.4 Kwh
• from pack capacity and range, I est. Energy usage at 225 wh/mi
• given energy use for LR Model Y at 250 wh/mi, I est. Austin Std Y is 8% more efficient
• from relative energy efficiency, I est Std Y weighs ~365 lbs less than Fremont LR Y
• given lower mass of vehicle, I also est. Std Y should also cost 8% less for raw materials
• with f/r megacastings, reduced body line size, and new paint shop, imputs should also be less

*All figures are estimates. Your mileage may vary. Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear.

Cheers!

Paging @The Accountant

P.S. Producing 500k/yr Std Models Y should require about 32 Gwh of 4680 cells (only about 3.2x greater than the planned capacity of the Kato Rd pilot plant)

Thanks. This is helpful for my future forecasts.
Are there any other raw material cost differences between a Std Y and LR Y besides the battery and motors (single motor vs dual)?
I guess we can look to the Model 3 RWD vs the Model 3 LR as an example. Those familiar with the Model 3 RWD, are there any other component differences other than battery and motor?

 

[ZachF]

Me taking a look at the production videos from Giga Austin:

 

[Knightshade]

Thanks. This is helpful for my future forecasts.
Are there any other raw material cost differences between a Std Y and LR Y besides the battery and motors (single motor vs dual)?
I guess we can look to the Model 3 RWD vs the Model 3 LR as an example. Those familiar with the Model 3 RWD, are there any other component differences other than battery and motor?

The Austin SR Y, at least the ones people sat in at the rodeo, were dual motor AWD, not RWD....

 

[Stretch2727]

He focuses too much on OTA I think. Very important to understand the Tesla changes and improves their assembly line—hardware and manufacturing—on a monthly basis or whenever it makes sense. This is faster than not just car companies, but actual electronics makers. The products Apple will ship in September already exist and are quietly making their ways into the hands of their suppliers to start setting up production. The cars Tesla will ship in June might be different from the ones shipping today.

This is a pretty massive difference from even the 9 months they say Toyota has.

The other huge difference from legacy is that the Tesla innovation is mostly what you can't see. Look at the recent innovation to the Model S and Model Y but the cars look the same. When legacy manufacturer's do innovate they always tie it to a re-model/re-styling of the car.

This has huge benefits to the brand of the car as they are easily recognizable by non-car people. Mercedes and BMW used this strategy for a long while to make their cars instantly recognizable. Not so much lately.

I really think Elon does not believe just changing the style of a car adds value. He would rather spend the money on functional improvements. Yes, some functional changes effect the style, for example aero wheels, new aero slots on the Model S.

 

[Nocturnal]

The other huge difference from legacy is that the Tesla innovation is mostly what you can't see. Look at the recent innovation to the Model S and Model Y but the cars look the same. When legacy manufacturer's do innovate they always tie it to a re-model/re-styling of the car.

This has huge benefits to the brand of the car as they are easily recognizable by non-car people. Mercedes and BMW used this strategy for a long while to make their cars instantly recognizable. Not so much lately.

I really think Elon does not believe just changing the style of a car adds value. He would rather spend the money on functional improvements. Yes, some functional changes effect the style, for example aero wheels, new aero slots on the Model S.

Frequent cosmetic changes (new models) are a form of planned obsolescence. If your tech doesn't improve enough to encourage people to upgrade, well, just make a new version so owners are forced to buy something new lest they be driving an "old model".

We all know the contrast here with Tesla. Which is my I'm sitting in my near cosmetically identical 2018 Model 3 wanting to upgrade to a 2022 because of the tech changes.

 

[VValleyEV]

Indeed. Luckily, we have a rock-star* CEO who's always 2 strides ahead:

Tesla May Start Mining Lithium as Musk Cites Battery Metal Cost | Bloomberg

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@stats_feed Price of lithium has gone to insane levels! Tesla might actually have to get into the mining & refining directly at scale, unless costs improve. There is no shortage of the element itself, as lithium is almost everywhere on Earth, but pace of extraction/refinement is slow." / Twitter​

​

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@PPathole @stats_feed We have some cool ideas for sustainable lithium extraction & refinement" / Twitter​

As always, Tesla holds at a massive technological advantage vs. its competitors: it will always require less lithium per unit of range for comparible vehicles. Just look at the Audi SUV and how much more battery it needs for a similar range to Model Y.

Then, there's Cybertruck vs. EV Hummer... is there a "Lithium Guzzler Tax" yet? There's probably enough lithium used per EV-Hummer than will be used in 10 Tesla dedicated Robotaxis, which will see 1,000x the passenger miles per year per unit of lithium. Ban the EV-HUbris!

Cheers!

*rock-star -- lithium extraction using rock salt. Patent pending.

Tesla files new patent on lithium extraction method | mining-technology.com

LOL “Lithium Guzzler Tax” made my day. Thx.

 

[lafrisbee]

Do Not have any liquid in your mouth while watching... (It is Saturday, if this doesn't make you laugh ... )

https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/tzk3f4

 

[willow_hiller]

Looks like Tesla is preparing to put the Standard Range AWD Model Y on the configurator. Option code MTY14 was updated overnight with the 279 mile range:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1512752957342855168

Edit: I think this also points to the fact that the SR MY AWD is not an LFP pack. They've dropped 0-60 acceleration from 4.8 seconds on the LR to 5.0 seconds on the SR. Compare that to when the Model 3 SR+ went to LFP, the 0-60 dropped from 5.3 seconds to 5.8 seconds.

 

[Beltsbear]

@Beltsbear , investing in GM anytime prior to its bankruptcy would have resulted in a principle loss of 100% to Retail shareholders. "Not done too bad"? My friend, it doesn't get any worse.

"And that's been the case for investors of the old General Motors, which filed for Chapter 11 reorganization on June 8, 2009. Common stock holders in the old General Motors were essentially wiped out, watching their shares morph into shares of Motors Liquidation."

Don't be like that. The dates were clearly set in the post thread of being POST BANKRUPCY. My statement is correct.

 

[AudubonB]

Or, one reasonably could posit @Beltsbear was suggesting investors consider what would happen were GM again to enter Chapter 11.

 

[GOVA]

This guy has a gret video from Giga Tejas opening.

Best views of the new CT

 

[jbcarioca]

Thanks. This is helpful for my future forecasts.
Are there any other raw material cost differences between a Std Y and LR Y besides the battery and motors (single motor vs dual)?
I guess we can look to the Model 3 RWD vs the Model 3 LR as an example. Those familiar with the Model 3 RWD, are there any other component differences other than battery and motor?

I have been grappling with this issue for some time, as well as several major technical difference between Tesla and others. Frankly, I've ended our with Jordan Geisige's The Limiting Factor more than any other source. He goes deep in numerous details so depending on him is Time Consuming! The value is very substantial if understanding cost issues, from Capex, labor costs and components to materials.

So skipping all the nearly endless intermediary steps (17 videos on Gigacasting alone from Jordan) plus various sources for commodity price movements and long contract 'take-or-pay' terms in major raw materials (Aluminum, Nickel, Lithium, Magnesium, Copper, Cobalt and Chrome are the ones I watch), plus industrial robot and Press prices (focus on Gigapress because it is most important in reducing factory size, robot sue and labor costs).

Here si my bottom line. Tesla stated in the 2022 Model Y owners manual supplement on Structural battery pack, as quoted:

Structural Batteries: The Cars of the Future Are Glued

Structural batteries are changing the way electric cars are assembled. Structural adhesives are replacing screws and welds to “glue” components together using a process called adhesive bonding. This process requires additional surface preparation and creates new challenges for automakers and...

www.laserax.com

The 10% weight reduction from the LR AWB weight of 2066 kg is 206,6 kg. The 2021 production cost per Model Y was roughly $ 30,000 or or $1.45 per kg.
Normally that calculation is made by manufacturers using quit precise measures. We are faced with the need to estimate all of it. Generally, when evaluating the cost/benefit of a change that key metric, cost per kg tends to be used. Tesla itself said that structural battery pack, with 4680's the two Gigacastings, of course, reduced vehicle weight by 10%. That would be $1.45 per kg, so the total vehicle cost should ahem dropped by about $3,000.

I am quite confident that estimate is not overstated. It ignores the details of initiation and development for the entire Gigacasting, 4680, structural battery pack, and the specialized aluminum alloy and on-site liquification/smelting required.
Frankly there really is no way to assess the R&D unless we had access to much information we would need.

All of that shrinks when we consider just how enormous that 10% is.

Specific materials costs and even chip supplied are dwarfed by that. The only question is how quickly those technologies can be applied to all the automotive products. It will require years, even at Tesla speed.

 

[JRP3]

This guy has a gret video from Giga Tejas opening.

I think he used to work for Tesla, maybe still does.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

CNBC really pouring it on this weekend. Lora Kolodny with a piece today, not delving into all the amazing technological innovations brought forward at the opening of GigaAustin, but about a guy who seemingly can't get a refund for a Model X he bought 2 years ago. Not linking to it.

Now I'm scanning the front page of CNBC and they're covering how a "four-man team representing Houston-based startup company Axiom Space lifted off on Friday from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center." Nevermind it was SpaceX that ran and flew the mission. If you dig deep enough into the article they mention it a couple times, but clearly the purpose is to present this as a competitor to SpaceX taking private astronauts to the ISS.

I know it's repetitive to keep posting every slanted piece of "journalism" printed by CNBC, but I'm not really interested in how this impacts Telsa/SpaceX/Elon. Other than the investment returns, the best thing I've gotten out of following Tesla on their journey is a close-up look at how journalism works. We see media outlets set the narrative at the behest of.....whomever, then watch it trickle into the subconscious of everyone around us til they spout off the talking points like they're fact.

We're only about a dozen years into this dynamic of everyone having a smartphone on their person at all times, but it worries me we may be stuck in this world for good. Is it likely a critical mass of people will stop seeing "the news" as presenting facts? Yes, the news has always been spun like this, but now you can practically program reality in real time.

What I'd LOVE to see up close is how these relationships actually flow. We know hedge funds pay for airtime on "business news" networks, and we know various entities pay for media headlines, but what's the internal mechanism? Who develops the headlines? Who writes the check and how is it delivered? Who draws the line on what goes to far? I've been around corporations long enough to guess, but I think it would be great to actually see it in motion in specific instances.

If only there were any actual independent investigative journalist left to look into it. It would make a great Bethany McLean book, but as we all know she's now dipped her toes into this very same industry.

I guess human civilization will work it out eventually. This kind of activity is born of desperation from an industry in decline and willing to compromise itself for an extension on their relevance and profitability.

 

[Beltsbear]

I have been grappling with this issue for some time, as well as several major technical difference between Tesla and others. Frankly, I've ended our with Jordan Geisige's The Limiting Factor more than any other source. He goes deep in numerous details so depending on him is Time Consuming! The value is very substantial if understanding cost issues, from Capex, labor costs and components to materials.

So skipping all the nearly endless intermediary steps (17 videos on Gigacasting alone from Jordan) plus various sources for commodity price movements and long contract 'take-or-pay' terms in major raw materials (Aluminum, Nickel, Lithium, Magnesium, Copper, Cobalt and Chrome are the ones I watch), plus industrial robot and Press prices (focus on Gigapress because it is most important in reducing factory size, robot sue and labor costs).

Here si my bottom line. Tesla stated in the 2022 Model Y owners manual supplement on Structural battery pack, as quoted:

Structural Batteries: The Cars of the Future Are Glued

Structural batteries are changing the way electric cars are assembled. Structural adhesives are replacing screws and welds to “glue” components together using a process called adhesive bonding. This process requires additional surface preparation and creates new challenges for automakers and...

www.laserax.com

The 10% weight reduction from the LR AWB weight of 2066 kg is 206,6 kg. The 2021 production cost per Model Y was roughly $ 30,000 or or $1.45 per kg.
Normally that calculation is made by manufacturers using quit precise measures. We are faced with the need to estimate all of it. Generally, when evaluating the cost/benefit of a change that key metric, cost per kg tends to be used. Tesla itself said that structural battery pack, with 4680's the two Gigacastings, of course, reduced vehicle weight by 10%. That would be $1.45 per kg, so the total vehicle cost should ahem dropped by about $3,000.

I am quite confident that estimate is not overstated. It ignores the details of initiation and development for the entire Gigacasting, 4680, structural battery pack, and the specialized aluminum alloy and on-site liquification/smelting required.
Frankly there really is no way to assess the R&D unless we had access to much information we would need.

All of that shrinks when we consider just how enormous that 10% is.

Specific materials costs and even chip supplied are dwarfed by that. The only question is how quickly those technologies can be applied to all the automotive products. It will require years, even at Tesla speed

I would really like to see a 10% drop in total vehicle weight but that is not happening for a comparable range. Now the 279 mile car may be 10% lighter than the 350 mile car but that is a different story. I think we are looking at about 200lbs difference, not 200kg difference with structural battery and 4680 cells. If so, that alone is big deal.

 

[wipster]

This guy has a gret video from Giga Tejas opening.

Best views of the new CT

Great vid thanks for sharing! Was that Gary Clark Jr playing in the last portion? The Cyber Rodeo had to be awesome and yet none of the major stations are covering it... deserves a 60 Minutes segment at least!

 

[Rarity]

Great vid thanks for sharing! Was that Gary Clark Jr playing in the last portion? The Cyber Rodeo had to be awesome and yet none of the major stations are covering it... deserves a 60 Minutes segment at least!

Again, the news organizations were not invited. This was a private invitation-only party. Even the local TV stations had to rely on viewer-supplied video.

Not only did Tesla get rid of its PR department, it more or less discouraged news coverage of this event. An anti-PR approach. Word of mouth and social media are very powerful, as we have seen throughout Tesla's life, so relying on it may make sense.

 

[wipster]

Again, the news organizations were not invited. This was a private invitation-only party. Even the local TV stations had to rely on viewer-supplied video.

Not only did Tesla get rid of its PR department, it more or less discouraged news coverage of this event. An anti-PR approach. Word of mouth and social media are very powerful, as we have seen throughout Tesla's life, so relying on it may make sense.

Thanks for the info, was not aware of Tesla discouraging news coverage, kind of a shame I think. I know I'll be sharing a few of these vids, that's for sure! The drone show before Elon's presentation was awesome, especially the CT with the fire (?) surrounding it.

 

[Rarity]

Well, it could be more accurate to say that Tesla discouraged news coverage because they didn't facilitate it in any way as far as I could see and they didn't let high-powered cameras in.

This is a velvet rope approach. Only the select few get into the party, which increases interest in what happens there and makes the invitees feel special. They will tell all of their friends about how epic it was.

Not once in my life having been in a line with a velvet rope, I don't know all of the dynamics. But I can guess.