Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WADan]

I did, but could only afford two at $761. SO glad I did though. Still looking to buy the dip when I can.

All my ROTH backdoor conversion $$$ went in. Expecting to see 7 figures balance in a year!

 

[Krugerrand]

Macros and Short of Elon doing something off the rails aside...is there anything that can really derail $TSLA from getting to $2k by EOY?

Yeah. You thinking it’s a sure thing. And me selling shares to fund the mountain.

 

[Singuy]

Asked my parents about Shanghai news today. Local officials see shutdown unnecessary, however the government wants this and are looking to replace the head of shanghai if there's non-compliance. It seems that most people got 1 shot but not many got the booster when it comes to vaccine. That's all the news I have for now.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Yeah. You thinking it’s a sure thing. And me selling shares to fund the mountain.

Never a sure thing with anything....but i sure would like to see your mountain

 

[Artful Dodger]

Which is just insane if you know anything about the mechanics and realities of automaking! Because this isn't about sales/deliveries, it's about production.

Tesla is a much stronger company for having known they would be attacked from every conceivable angle. It has made them more independent and stronger. Which is just another way of saying TSLA is more valuable than most people realize.

Shanghai is at an approx. run rate of 2,250 cars/day right now. With 6 days missed at the end of Q1, that's about 13.5k (which they'll make up in Q2).

Q1 Production may have been 328k w/o the pause, but it was never going to be 350k. That is a mathematically fantasy not based on logistics, or the number of physical production lines in operation.

That is what many here miss: it is not the number of BUILDINGS that sets Tesla's max. production capacity, but the number of operating assembly lines. We'll see another bump up in Shanghai when the 4th GA line is brought up (and it'll add about 33% to their local capacity). I expect that line sometime in Q2.

Texas and Berlin both have 1 line ramping now, but limited logistics (Shanghai by contrast has a nearly 100% localized supply chain). Texas needs cells from Kato Rd in Fremont to build packs. Berlin needs cells from LG, and drivetrain components from Shanghai. I expect both to be near fully locallized by end of 2022.

TL;dr Model the number of assembly lines (not the number of Gigafactories), and model individual 'S' curves for each of those lines.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Macros and Short of Elon doing something off the rails aside...is there anything that can really derail $TSLA from getting to $2k by EOY?

This has come up before:

1. SEC
2. NHTSA
3. WW3

Nothing in life is assured, nor risk-free. You just pick your horse, and ride it to the finish line.

Cheers!

 

[wipster]

Hey, here’s one that could service the grid 24/7, or my home while I wait.

Heck, get ‘em going charging the semi’s for extra long hauls. So the vehicles pay for their own rides. Wait a minute… it’s so different thinking about batteries and energy now.


View attachment 789950

How are you feeling my friend? Hope the next day wasn't as bad as it could have been...

 

[StealthP3D]

Looks like Hertz is buying 65K more EVs, except they are Polestar this time.

Hertz is simply realizing how they can expand market share by increasing their EV fleet. There are not enough Teslas to go around.

Also, many Tesla owners would probably love to rent a Polestar when they travel just to see what they are (not) missing. And at the rate Tesla sales are expanding, it won't be long before Tesla owners are a very significant portion of all rental customers. People who rent cars tend to do so repeatedly. So, if they rented a Model 3 last time (to try it out) they would probably prefer to rent a Polestar next time (for comparison purposes).

Remember, most motorists in most countries still have very little clue what it's really like to drive a Tesla or another EV.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This has come up before:

1. SEC
2. NHTSA
3. WW3

Nothing in life is assured, nor risk-free. You just pick your horse, and ride it to the finish line.

Cheers!

The one thing i know in life is assured is that no matter what $TSLA does, my wife will still think im an idiot

 

[advocate8]

It's a fine line between good moderating and bad. Free speech should not be confused with the right to run a coordinated disinformation campaign. What is mostly needed is to filter out the trolls, obvious or not, while letting people say (mostly) what they want. It's more difficult than it sounds but some forums are really bad at it.

This investor's forum does a better job of that than many of the other forums on this site (which still have decent moderating). For a look at truly disastrous effects of failing to weed out what should have been obvious trolls, while heavily moderating reasonable discussion (micro-managing every little thing), go take a look at the Model 3 Owner's Club forum. It was a booming place with unlimited potential and the owner turned it into a veritable ghost town by letting sneaky trolls run rampant while simultaneously censoring reasonable discussion simply because it didn't sound happy and polite. The trolls quickly learned they would be allowed to rule the place and, as long as they remained civil and polite, they would be allowed to spread their misinformation freely. Simultaneously, reasonable discussion, if it even hinted towards anything less than ultimate politeness, was heavily frowned upon. What could have been a very valuable site is now a sad shell of its former potential. The lesson here is it's not wise to try to force ultimate civility at the expense of truth and honesty. You cannot force people to be 100% polite and gentle at all times and vigorous debate should not be viewed as "confrontational" or as an "argument".

What does this have to do with investing in Tesla? A lot! Because there are a whole bunch of early Model 3 owners who would be millionaire investors by now had they not been led astray by the army of trolls that freely roamed the forums there, masquerading as legitimate Tesla fans while making up and amplifying anything and everything negative while simultaneously running off people with more logical analyses. This created the wrong impression of TSLA's performance as a company and the likely coming appreciation of their shares. It decreased the pool of potential investors (making them poorer for it) and depressed the share prices slightly lower than they would otherwise have been at any given point in time. Forum members who saw through the BS went looking for greener pastures leaving the dregs behind. Forum management actually thought they were providing balance by letting these people spread their endless negativity and preventing the place from turning into an echo chamber. I want to emphasize that I'm not talking about people who simply had a different perspective, I'm talking about forum members who had the obvious and sinister goal of dissuading people from buying the cars and the stock and yet were allowed to roam freely as long as they remained polite and civil.

People here should realize how good you have it. Nothing is ever perfect, but it's a whole lot better than it could easily be as evidenced by so many other Internet forums where management and moderators don't have a clue what they are doing.

Elegant explanation! good stuff...

 

[Gigapress]

Shanghai is at an approx. run rate of 2,250 cars/day right now. With 6 days missed at the end of Q1, that's about 13.5k (which they'll make up in Q2).

Q1 Production may have been 328k w/o the pause, but it was never going to be 350k. That is a mathematically fanatasy not based on logistics, or the number of physical production lines in operation.

My 350k estimate was based on 10 missed days in Q1, not 6 days.

2 days for Covid in Feb
4 days in end of Mar ( the total shutdown has been 6 days, but it’s Q2 now)
4 days (a guess) for Chinese New Year

The local Chinese suppliers would’ve also had similar days off, so Tesla likely was unable to make up for lost time by stockpiling parts and raw materials and working overtime.

To clarify, 350k was accounting for Q1 being only 90 days. So I added a +2 day bonus to the handicap to normalize the daily rate comparison against Q4.

The production line count hasn’t increased yet, but the lines are getting more efficient and they have not been running at full capacity.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My 350k estimate was based on 10 missed days in Q1.

5 days off for Chinese New Year was expected (not 4), and would have been planned for in logistics. All China takes that week off.

Model last year's numbers to see what I mean.

 

[Krugerrand]

Never a sure thing with anything....but i sure would like to see your mountain

 

[ZsoZso]

This morning when I saw the SP dropping, I figured I buy some lottery tickets calls with 1180 strike price May20 expiry:

Figured, the SP will rise enough in the next few weeks to make a quick buck on these, even if they do not turn In-The-Money.
Did not expect them to go up so fast though, now it looks like they may become worthy to exercise rather than sell for profit.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

View attachment 789976

Ah...i see you hired the $NKLA construction crew....

 

[M|S|M MYP]

EV presentation at the White House right now, Secretary Pete is currently speaking and President Joe after him. Whatta ya bet there's not a Tesla on display. I'd be surprised if the biggest BEV maker in the world, based in the US, is even mentioned.

"I'd be surprised if the biggest BEV maker in the world, based in the US, is even mentioned"

They will definitely mention GM because they are the leader.....#Maryled

/s

 

[lafrisbee]

I think there are 2 things going on:
1. Your point that earnings this year will show that Tesla is undervalued. The P/E ratio will be ridiculously low if the stock does not move up significantly.
2. Real impactful competition is not coming. If Legacy Auto can't get it's ICE sales in order (down 15%-25%), how can they effectively put a dent in Tesla Market Share for EVs. What we are seeing is that Tesla's management team and engineers are well ahead of the teams at Legacy Auto.

as to "2."
There is the belief that ICE sales are lower because the public is hanging on to their ICE vehicles longer while waiting for the EV Explosion.

 

[wipster]

"I'd be surprised if the biggest BEV maker in the world, based in the US, is even mentioned"

They will definitely mention GM because they are the leader.....#Maryled

/s

I screwed up, it's a trucking presentation, my bad.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think a lot of people are still looking for 'the next Tesla'. I also think as time marches on and Tesla's success becomes obvious, it becomes obvious to more people (retail investors included) that EVs are here to stay, so I believe this promotes EV diversification. If a company new to EV manufacturing doesn't go out of business then most of them are a good buy IF one HODLs with diamond hands.

I learned a long time ago, regardless of the industry, to own the best of breed, the market leader, the one that will likely dominate for years to come.

Even if the stock of an EV startup ends up tripling or quintupling in value over the next 8 years, that is a bad deal if it displaces money that could have been invested in a company that turns out to be a 10-25 bagger over the same timeframe. I do understand that diversification can have some value, but I'm going to need to invest in another industry (get more diversification) in order to justify the stark potential differences in likely returns between TSLA and the other EV startups.

Ask yourself what the chances are any other particular existing EV startup will outperform TSLA over the next 8 years. If your answer is "almost zero", then it is a bad investment risk. The fact that one of the many EV startups could outperform TSLA in terms of share price growth is not a good reason to take a chance on one of them. Because you might pick the wrong one. If you need more diversification, diversify in another industry (and avoid being more diversified than your particular financial situation demands).

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I screwed up, it's a trucking presentation, my bad.

So substitute GM for Nikola......