Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Honestly, we’re still buying the post ER SP going up story? Heard that one Q4 and several times prior over the years. It’s a pretty narrative that nobody with WS power bothers to read. So, yeah. Wishful thinking.

I don't disagree, any effort to lever up with short-term calls and catch the next big pop isn't gonna end up more profitable than buying shares and holding. But there's fun-value in seeing something 10x! It's gambling and you need to be ready to walk away when you hit.

This is not to say levering up to conservative LEAPs on these major dips isn't profitable. IMO any rational TSLA investor should be willing to make those moves as appropriate.

We are aware of a sure thing. That should be monetized.

 

[Drumheller]

Elon will be Elon. That's all I can say and there's nothing I can do except hold on to my butt

It set a new bar for the most stupid tweet from Musk, so far, replacing the "Covid gone by April 2020"

When the apologists in this thread that believe Elon cannot do anything stupid or wrong decide to downvote me and reply that this is "4D chess", please also explain how the other mentioned tweet was 4D chess and how Musk was correct on that.

This tweet may bring a target to Musk from a man known for poisoning enemies. It's also hubris to assume he has the approval of a country's worth of people to wager their lives in a duel. That tweet was a bad idea.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't disagree, any effort to lever up with short-term calls and catch the next big pop isn't gonna end up more profitable than buying shares and holding. But there's fun-value in seeing something 10x! It's gambling and you need to be ready to walk away when you hit.

This is not to say levering up to conservative LEAPs on these major dips isn't profitable. IMO any rational TSLA investor should be willing to make those moves as appropriate.

I can only agree, since you added the qualifier "as appropriate". I've always been in favor of making any move, no matter how radical, as long as I believed it was "appropriate".

 

[StealthP3D]

When the apologists in this thread that believe Elon cannot do anything stupid or wrong decide to downvote me and reply that this is "4D chess", please also explain how the other mentioned tweet was 4D chess and how Musk was correct on that.

This tweet may bring a target to Musk from a man known for poisoning enemies. It's also hubris to assume he has the approval of a country's worth of people to wager their lives in a duel. That tweet was a bad idea.

Without understanding how Musk is trying to bend the future, I cannot say whether it is productive or not.

Anyone who thinks they know the answer could probably use a little more hubris.

I'm content to let Elon be Elon. He's a big boy now. We have a war criminal targeting civilians with live munitions, innocent, regular people trying to live their lives, and you criticize the man who is pointing out the ridiculousness of it all? I don't think we need to pull any punches from a war criminal.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It set a new bar for the most stupid tweet from Musk, so far, replacing the "Covid gone by April 2020"

When the apologists in this thread that believe Elon cannot do anything stupid or wrong decide to downvote me and reply that this is "4D chess", please also explain how the other mentioned tweet was 4D chess and how Musk was correct on that.

This tweet may bring a target to Musk from a man known for poisoning enemies. It's also hubris to assume he has the approval of a country's worth of people to wager their lives in a duel. That tweet was a bad idea.

You don't think Putin is already trying to poison Musk? He's been at the top of the is list for a while, you can't go up from there! Any guy who pays professional hockey players to lose to him is by definition a coward and should be challenged to a duel at every opportunity.

I don't see anything replacing Elon's covid posts as his dumbest of all time.

 

[mongo]

I nominate Elon for as an honorary member of the SEC.
View attachment 780698

I assume everyone thinks this is him warning about a margin hit. But everyone already knows that materials are way up and that Tesla has more than enough demand to increase prices. So perhaps it's just Elon being his overly frank self.

That tweet is from 2018.

It set a new bar for the most stupid tweet from Musk, so far, replacing the "Covid gone by April 2020"

When the apologists in this thread that believe Elon cannot do anything stupid or wrong decide to downvote me and reply that this is "4D chess", please also explain how the other mentioned tweet was 4D chess and how Musk was correct on that.

This tweet may bring a target to Musk from a man known for poisoning enemies. It's also hubris to assume he has the approval of a country's worth of people to wager their lives in a duel. That tweet was a bad idea.

You are misquoting Elon, and dropping context.

Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April

https://twitter.com/x/status/1240754657263144960

 

[Gigapress]

Wrong on many counts. The chassis may be a little stiffer, but not ”much” stiffer. NVH may even be worse. Charging speed will be quite similar nothing like a multiple of times better. No word at all on range degradation or how long they will last, probably very similar to existing 2170 vehicles.

weight will be less, which may improve braking and acceleration, though acceleration could be limited through software. But the difference is going to be about the weight of one person. 95% of owners would not notice.

4680 is about making more cars with fewer resources, which mostly translates into higher profits for Tesla.

According to Elon himself at battery day, the structural pack will have "incredible stiffness":

"[The structural pack] effectively glues the cells to the top and bottom sheet, and this allows you to do shear transfer between the upper and lower sheet, just like if you have like a Formula 1 craft or like a racing boat, and you have carbon fiber face sheets and, say, aluminum honeycomb in between them, this gives incredible stiffness and it's really the way any super-fast thing works...we can actually use the steel shell case of the battery to transfer shear from the upper and lower face sheet which makes for an incredibly stiff structure, even stiffer than a regular car...I really think that long term, any cars that do not take this architecture will not be competitive."

As for NVH, as @jbcarioca pointed out, this whole package deal will include a suspension redesign and combining front and rear casting, and also the suspension will work better with a more rigid structure to react against.

All I was trying to point out is that Tesla has really undersold the new Y and there will be some lag, even after deliveries begin, before the market realizes what has been accomplished here. Most of us will not be able to get one immediately and a Munro teardown is months away, so I see value in at least attempting to estimate. And also, if as expected we see raving customer reviews of Berlin/Austin Ys in April, it would be good to understand the causes of the improved performance to judge how hard it'd be for competition to replicate.

 

[SunCatcher]

I think market might be worried about supply chain disruptions in China given new lockdowns.

Also Elon being his occasional dumb self doesn’t inspire confidence to broader set of investors.

At what point should a wee bit of levity stop being welcomed as an acceptable moment's break from a world of hurt and horror? Nervous laughter is perhaps better than no laughter. And if Ukrainian soldiers can find short eclipses of levity in the same moment as they walk around bombed out Russian tanks with dead Russian soldiers next to them, then I suppose I can find solace in the silly levity coming from the world's current premier genius; Elon Musk. Thank you Elon, for contributing to the possibility of chuckles in the eye of a massive storm. The oxygen intake from these laughs might well help us to brace ourselves for what's coming next.

"Laughing and Crying, It's the Same Release". Joni Mitchell

 

[tslagreen]

Higher Oil Prices Could Spark A Bull Run For Tesla

The United States and the United Kingdom have both announced plans to leave Russian oil behind, and that could be great news for Tesla

finance.yahoo.com

"Higher Oil prices could spark a bull run for Tesla."

In addition to Goldman positive article yesterday (predicting 50% upside for Tesla), could be a nice
run ahead.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I can only agree, since you added the qualifier "as appropriate". I've always been in favor of making any move, no matter how radical, as long as I believed it was "appropriate".

I think it's dramatically underappreciated on this forum how much different it is today vs any other time in our HODL'ing history. Every day up until two months ago was about convincing the world of Tesla's intangible value. Now we have fairly undeniable earnings projections as a backdrop to leverage plans. Good times!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Well, you can't say Elon doesn't like to keep things interesting. Smh.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503387369692672002

Last week I saw an article saying Oil cartel was concerned that high oil prices would shift demand to EV's.
So maybe some of the TSLA drop can be explained by the oil drop as well ....

 

[Ogre]

Well, you can't say Elon doesn't like to keep things interesting. Smh.

I can't see Musk's post as anything other than this.

For those worried that this bumps Musk to the top of Putins hit list, maybe you didn't notice that Musk provided several chunks of critical communications infrastructure to Ukraine helping them agains Russian's actual troops in the field?

As someone mentioned above, Musk is already near the top of Putin's list. Likely was before the war and the Starlink deal pushed him to the top. Now he's at the top-top?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503387369692672002

Last week I saw an article saying Oil cartel was concerned that high oil prices would shift demand to EV's.
So maybe some of the TSLA drop can be explained by the oil drop as well ....

Any demand hiccup was going to start a fairly robust correction, and a hardcore lockdown in China definitely qualifies.

If the storage release still goes thru AND we get a ceasefire in the next two weeks, oil could get ugly to the downside.

 

[ZeApelido]

Elon is definitely funny and in possession of informations that nobody here has any idea about.

Funny how some people that spend time on an Internet forum always have advice for… everyone.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503378798238130177

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503379999142912001

Today I learned Elon is a typical fraternity bro.

 

[GOVA]

So you know more about this than Elon? The man who has studied world history, negotiated with the post-soviet era Russians for rockets and dealt with Russians on a regular basis since before he founded SpaceX two decades ago?

Sure, go ahead and give Elon advice about dealing with Russians. He won't spend a minute of his day listening to you (and he shouldn't).

It's not that I'm not concerned about Elon's well-being, it's that I trust that he knows more about it than you do.

First, he is not dealing with anyone, rather barking stupid crap on Twitter.
Second, it is not Russians but Putin.
Third, he does not know more than me about how this works because I lived there for 20+ years and "studying world history" does not help. They don't think how we think they think. Elon thinks in western terms like this is some funny game.

It ain't a game. If this somehow gets noticed, Putin will not bark back on Twitter. Elon should focus on solid help like giving them Starlink rather than this very stupid waste of time.

It was not an advice, rather my opinion.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503387369692672002

Last week I saw an article saying Oil cartel was concerned that high oil prices would shift demand to EV's.
So maybe some of the TSLA drop can be explained by the oil drop as well ....

Can we just not try to justify the drop in TSLA today?

Oil goes high, Tesla drops
Oil goes low, Tesla drops
10 year goes high, Tesla drops
10 year goes low, Tesla drops
Bitcoin goes up, Tesla drops
Bitcoin goes down, Tesla drop

Apple who’s production is directly affect by the Covid China lockdown is only down 1% while Tesla is down 3% even though it’s factory is not shutting down.

Seeing a pattern? Tesla is being traded like it has a P/E of 1,000 or no P/E at all. There’s nothing to comment on about price movements at this point because the stock is trading in its downtrend. I pointed out last week if it didn’t hold a key level that there would be another push down. The stock is just going to be continually pushed down until Wall St determine its time to reverse it.

Elon’s tweets certainly make it easier for them. Sure would nice if he could just restrain himself for a little while until the stock isn’t ya know down 40%

 

[Krugerrand]

Today I learned Elon is a typical fraternity bro.

Every man for his entire life.

 

[Matias]

Elon is definitely funny and in possession of informations that nobody here has any idea about.

Funny how some people that spend time on an Internet forum always have advice for… everyone.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503378798238130177

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503379999142912001

Isn't duel traditionally fought with swords or pistols.?

 

[15Peter20]

It set a new bar for the most stupid tweet from Musk, so far, replacing the "Covid gone by April 2020"

When the apologists in this thread that believe Elon cannot do anything stupid or wrong decide to downvote me and reply that this is "4D chess", please also explain how the other mentioned tweet was 4D chess and how Musk was correct on that.

This tweet may bring a target to Musk from a man known for poisoning enemies. It's also hubris to assume he has the approval of a country's worth of people to wager their lives in a duel. That tweet was a bad idea.

He demolished their space launch industry, is helping bring on the demise of their fossil fuel revenue and is supplying their enemies with Starlink terminals.

I’d have thought if none of the above have caused VP to deliver a box of Lipton’s Finest Polonium tea bags to EM then a mocking tweet is not gonna.