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I, too, could get excited...if I understood ANY of it.
ML/AI is moving so fast that it’s hard to keep up with the latest advances. I have maybe half the IQ of @heltok and @ZeApelido and their mathic brains, but these latest update notes for FSD beta seem crazy to me, in a good way. The % increases are enormous for VRUs etc.

Easy to play games with stats, but I assume these increases are compared to current FSD versions.

Think this is the first official confirmation of transformers being deployed in prod code. AWESOME.
 
Big disageee. That graph is normalized to the performance of a 2170 tabbed versus a theoretical 21(70/80?) tabless cell to show how diameter increase impacts charge rate of the two designs. The increase you mention is a 46mm tabless vs 21mm tabless. It is not a direct comparison of 46mm tabless to 21mm tabbed.

If you doubt this, ask yourself: how likely is it that tabless does absolutely nothing to impact charge rate at the 21 mm diameter, even though it cuts what 90% of the path length for heat and electrical flow?
View attachment 780473
And it makes more sense. Bigger surface area, lower resistance, less heat produced.
 
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China, and by China I mean Chairman Xi, is insane if they are really thinking they will maintain Covid Zero forever.

At least it's not Shanghai. So Giga Shanghai should be operating as normal. Too bad for the entire worldwide electronics industry though which is centered in Shenzhen. Maybe one day the other nations on Earth will consider that sourcing literally everything they buy from an authoritarian country ruled by a single man isn't actually a good idea. However even Covid couldn't get the world to stop doing this so I guess there's no hope left for humanity. I just hope that Giga Berlin and Austin spin up on schedule this year so reliance on Giga Shanghai is reduced.
 
Breaking News:

China has placed the ENTIRE CITY of Shenzen into a COVID lockdown. Going to be a big disruption - eg; Foxconn shutting down their factories that produce Apple products.


This is getting tedious. Don’t know how to say this nicely.

Just stop posting about China if you don’t know about China.

I’m no @jbcarioca but my palm is basically firmly implanted into my face after reading all the hot takes on China in this thread.

Stop hyperventilating.
 
I said triple charging speed in an offhand way. It wasn't meant to be a precise estimate but I'm pretty sure it's at least double and maybe quadruple.

Although it's hard to precisely estimate how fast charging will be, I expect it will be amazing, eventually, as measured by amount of range gained per minute.

At Battery Day, Tesla showed that they expect a 54% increase in range from all the improvements. Presumably some of this is coming from energy density improvements and some from efficiency. These cells weigh less per kWh at the pack level, have about an order of magnitude less internal electrical resistance and add rigidity with the structural pack which helps somewhat with powertrain efficiency. My wild guess is an 20% overall ion-to-wheel efficiency gain. Plus, being able to cram more kWh in the pack volume means that long range models can get more miles of range at peak charging rates before tapering kicks in. For many quick charging sessions this may be good enough to get the range desired in like 5-10 minutes.

The inside EVs article linked above has an estimate that this could be reduced by 40%, equating to an increase of 1/.4=67% in average kW supplied during a charging session.

But this analysis was only based on the heat wicking benefits of the tabless electrode. I think that the 4680 cells will be able to tolerate higher temperatures than 2170s even late in the charging cycle because of the stability benefits coming from the new and improved silicon anode, Maxwell dry electrode deposition process, and novel coatings and dopants for the high-nickel cathode. Does that increase by another factor of maybe 1.5 or so? Drew Baglino said the fundamental limit on charging speed is lithium plating and that it can be solved with the right electrode design, which Jordan Giesege (the limiting factor) inferred to mean an anode with lots of silicon. Tesla is making such an anode with a binder that they say is very good and staying intact when stretched.

1.2 * 1.67 * 1.5 = 3

So that's roughly how 4680s could have triple charging speed.

The original point stands that the new upcoming Model Y changes save money AND make the product substantially better. It'll drive better and be able to charge much faster.

Yet the current Y is already good enough to outsell the Toyota Corolla even at $60k ASP...
 
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China, and by China I mean Chairman Xi, is insane if they are really thinking they will maintain Covid Zero forever.

At least it's not Shanghai. So Giga Shanghai should be operating as normal. Too bad for the entire worldwide electronics industry though which is centered in Shenzhen. Maybe one day the other nations on Earth will consider that sourcing literally everything they buy from an authoritarian country ruled by a single man isn't actually a good idea. However even Covid couldn't get the world to stop doing this so I guess there's no hope left for humanity. I just hope that Giga Berlin and Austin spin up on schedule this year so reliance on Giga Shanghai is reduced.

China has brainwashed their population (similar to Russia's) that China's zero-covid policy is the supreme way to deal with COVID and they were the most successful country in the world to contain COVID after the first wave. The Chinese media had been reporting non-stop COVID deaths in the western countries so its citizens are scared sh*tless whenever there is a case in their community.

The irony is their domestic vaccine is ineffective so while the rest of the world has moved on, they were trapped. They couldn't get rid of the Covid Zero policy otherwise the death rate will skyrocket. The only option is to lock down every time there is a major outbreak. And as contagious as Omnicron is, it's likely China will have constant regional lockdown in the forseeable future. Hooray for more supply chain disruption.
 


This is getting tedious. Don’t know how to say this nicely.

Just stop posting about China if you don’t know about China.

I’m no @jbcarioca but my palm is basically firmly implanted into my face after reading all the hot takes on China in this thread.

Stop hyperventilating.
Not sure why your knickers are in a twist about my post - I am just stating a fact that China has just locked down an entire city which is the main output center for the largest company in America.

Shanghai has also just imposed some new COVID restrictions, but so far has not extended to outright lockdowns that stop factories like Shenzen has.
 
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Not sure why your knickers are in a twist about my post - I am just stating a fact that China has just locked down an entire city which is the main output center for the largest company in America.
I don’t wear knickers.

You can share that bit of info, which seems true, but it’s really a useless factoid.

I’m not trying to be rude, i
I’m just speaking from what I know.

South Bengali sometimes shuts down, too. Doesn’t affect Tesla.

Would love to collect all China opinions in my inbox. I know there are other threads for this, but my mouth is agape reading some of these opinions.
 
Futures up 0.5%, yet TSLA down 1%.. any reasons?

Hedgies jumped on this at the U.S. pre-Market open: (TL.O was up in Berlin before NYC opened)

Elon Musk on Twitter: "Tesla & SpaceX are seeing significant recent inflation pressure in raw materials & logistics" / Twitter

EDIT: Recovering some now with buying interest showing up in the past half-hour (TSLA vol in NYC is 112K at 05:40 EDT and only -0.17% down)

TL0.chart.2022-03-14.10-35.CET.png
 
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Huh? Who said Tesla was lying? Not me, I said you were interpreting the graph wrongly, unless you were trying to say a tabless 4680 would charge slower than a tabless 2180, that would follow from the data. However, I didn't see anyone arguing that point, rather people are comparing 2170 single tab to 4680 tabless, and you can't derive their relationship from that graph.
For each design, the graph shows increase from their base 21mm diameter; that does not mean they have the same inital charge time. Given Tesla only increased the diameter 3mm from the previous industry standard 1865 to make the 2170, I'd be very surprised if tabless would not improve 2170 charge rate. Could it be the case that tabless doesn't help 2170 (for the same kWh)? Doubtful, but even if so, you can't pull that from this graph.
If the tabless 0 point is 10 minutes vs 15 for tabbed and the 21->46 delta for tabless is 4 minutes, the 4680 tabless would still charge faster than the 2170 tabbed.
With the lack of vertical scale label, we can't say what the displacement even means. Is it minutes, %, inverse log?

Stock equivalent, which has the higher share price?
View attachment 780532

On a tangent: for any situation where the pack is not tapering (bulk of most non-supercharing), any increase in efficiency boosts the effective charge rate as more of the charger power is converted to SOC vs heat.
I agree with your assessment, we haven't been given enough information to compare charging times between the tabbed and tabless electrodes.

Given the commentary we have seen from The Limiting Factor amongst others, I think this is intentional from Tesla and there's a good chance that charging speeds will be better for tabless cells and Tesla wants people not to think about it to avoid risking sales on current vehicle.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla nerfs the charging speed of tabless cells via software until they are at mass production globally and can sell a differentiated product.