Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Tesla being cheeky about forcing people to higher margin cars. Bet the white seats cost like $5 more than the black ones, yet they can sell them for $1000 (or is it more now) extra! Same with the bigger wheels - there's an Excel spreadsheet somewhere in Tesla showing they cost like $30 extra!

Don’t ever look at what the options on a Porsche Taycan go for….

 

[H Mak]

Tesla being cheeky about forcing people to higher margin cars. Bet the white seats cost like $5 more than the black ones, yet they can sell them for $1000 (or is it more now) extra! Same with the bigger wheels - there's an Excel spreadsheet somewhere in Tesla showing they cost like $30 extra!

Yes, Tesla is the only car company that does this

 

[Runarbt]

Pretty sure @Curt Renz sold a bunch for a house at a little over $1000. I took the hint and trimmed but just went back in.

What's the plan Curt?

He should sell the house - would get a lot more shares!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Our PE is now 169.....Lol

Has anyone ever had a market cap over $500B, growth over 85%, and a PE under 200?

 

[Drax7]

Less competition than zero is still the same zero. Tesla has no real competition worth considering. Their low cost of production proves it. I'm keeping my eyes open and still I'm seeing nothing. You need to look at pricing power to say something is competitive.

When can we stop talking about 'competition'?

The higher cost of capital may further retard the emerging competition.
allowing tesla to be even more dominant.

 

[ZachF]

Our PE is now 169.....Lol

Has anyone ever had a market cap over $500B, growth over 85%, and a PE under 200?

It’s 80 if you annualize Q4

 

[Big Time]

I don't understand. The headline for this guy is "This Guy Thinks Tesla is Overvalued"
Than he proceeded to be just a super bull.....

 

[Phobi]

Head fake…to CNBS finally!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yomp. 'tutes buying.

Ceres!

 

[2daMoon]

Looks as though Mr. Market is finally catching up on their homework assignment.

I knew the excuse that the dog ate it wouldn't hold water for longs. (see what I did there?)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Thought id share this, got this from a bloomberg reporter:

She checks out...what do yall think?

 

[elasalle]

Hello. did markets digest the latest inflation data ...

Inflation stayed high to end 2021

A key indicator of wage pressures came in lower than expected, however.

www.axios.com

• In that sense, the softer fourth-quarter reading implies that the Fed need not move as abruptly toward tighter monetary policy as it would if the data showed a spiral of accelerating wage and price increases.

Treasury is down a few points and SPY, NAS seems to also be recovering.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I wrote a critical post yesterday regarding my disdain for Elon speaking at the ER (and the carnage that ensued) and a desire for him to not do that again in future.

Not unexpectedly it received many downvotes and some ridicule.
The ridicule was centered on the last part of my post related to the fact that I trade options to generate some income, and many were suggestions that if I don't like it, I should sell and go away.
No one bothered to engage with the actual comment I was making.

I've slept on it.

Spoiler: Elon should not be talking on ER

And I stand firm by my comment: Elon should be banned from talking at ERs - Zach should do all the talking.
Product road-maps, etc. should be given alternative platform where Elon can talk. He does so anyways on Twitter to his 71M followers, podcasts, interviews etc.

To be clear: I am 100% all-in on TSLA. It is the only stock I own and, apart from my home, my only asset.

My ASP is in the $170 region and I've never sold a share - I would suggest that this qualifies me as a HODLer, especially in the eyes of the "if you don't like it, sell" crowd here.
I have a full-time job, a family with two kids, and I trade options on TSLA to generate additional income. I use a part of this income to add to my TSLA position. I always make bullish trades - means, I am bullish on TSLA and attempt to profit from those that are not. If anyone cares, you can head over to the other thread and see my posts there - I'm not a high-risk trader.

In the days leading up to ER, the close we got, the number of you here - and many of the long-term, high frequency posters included - were posting (humorous?) comments about being afraid of what would happen if Elon said the wrong thing during the ER.

And then he goes and does just that - and a critical post on just the carnage that that caused is shot down by the very same posters.

I really think many of us who are on TMC a lot forget that we are in this hyper-informed, hyper-concentrated microcosmos of Tesla / TSLA. The amount of information (good and bad) that is disseminated here is staggering. It is far beyond what 99% of TSLA investors have access to. It provides outstanding levels of depth and insight, and a truly 4D-chess level of differing views and opinions. Some of you have been HODL'ing since IPO (or before?), some of you worked in meaningful positions at TSLA, some of you have had very long lives with impressive experience which you share here, the very large majority of us are fanbois of Elon, Tesla, SpaceX etc (myself included), and we all believe that this is the single greatest company of our times and the investment of a life-time. I do not believe Elon is responsible for generating or losing my income. That is on me.

A generational investment. I buy TSLA for the benefit of my kids.

I stand by my opinion that for 99% of investors out there, the TMC microcosmos of information does NOT inform their decision making.
Institutionals, analysts, etc. base the majority of their opinion on dry numbers presented in ERs etc. , and the media (which as we all agree is predominantly biased against Tesla - and let's not talk politics) provides the color to the mass of TSLA investors. We are not the mass.

As such, when Elon comes on an ER call - which ostensibly has the purpose of periodically informing shareholders on Tesla's financial performance along with income statement, cash flow statement, and balance sheets, usually comparing QoQ or YoY, and providing an outlook for the next period - and talks over the topic on hand, everyone on TMC goes nuts, because this is exactly the information we like to receive, we need to hear, it confirms our bull-cases and opinions.

It does not translate well to the actual audience of the ER call. It does not translate well to 99% of investors that consume this information through the media.

The result is that the consumers of this media read: Robots!?, FSD, no Cybertruck, no cheap Tesla, production is hard, supply chain issues. And we experience carnage the day after ER, over 10% down, uptick-rule triggered. Yes, a lot of this is macro and algos (that feed off of the ER and media - 100% not off of posts on TMC), short-sellers, market-makers, bears, hedge-funds, etc. But at the end of the day, there are more sellers than buyers and so the SP is obliterated. Folks that are new shareholders in TSLA see their holdings in negative territory.

These consumers of media do not read: $2.8BN cash flow, 50% YoY growth, $2.87 EPS (if you back out the one-times), over 50% growth projections, the highest margin of all automakers, an unbelievable average cost of production per car, no more cell constraints, two other GigaFactories opening soon - I could go on, but all of you know this better than I do.

So, allow me - and those that did not downvote or ridicule my post - an angry opinion on what was a disastrous earnings call, if measured by the purpose of an earnings call. A call that should have been run by Zach and focussed on the stellar results and the stellar outlook, and should have provided honest, market-calming answers to the questions posed. By shareholders.

The market does not get Robotaxis, FSD, Optimus sub-prime. The market does not want vaporware. The market wants to see in the dry boring numbers a reasonable, plausible way to calculate the projected 50% YoY growth that was presented, based on tangible goods and services they can see Tesla selling today.

Bombs away. I don't care.

Your "spoiler" part is a beautifully written piece that captures essence of the art of communication to different audiences. Very balanced too.
I'm recommending it for a "Posts of particular merits".

 

[elasalle]

Thought id share this, got this from a bloomberg reporter:
View attachment 761338
View attachment 761339
She checks out...what do yall think?

I guess she wants to write about all the money retail investor lost past few days ...
bad timing, she should be asking to write these stories at ATH I will volunteer then

 

[Artful Dodger]

Pretty sure @Curt Renz sold a bunch for a house at a little over $1000. I took the hint and trimmed but just went back in.

What's the plan Curt?

Curt: Last seen Jan 21, 2022

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Curt: Last seen Jan 21, 2022

Curt knew like Mary led!

 

[phantasms]

Curt: Last seen Jan 21, 2022

Full technical breakdown confirmed. lol

Quick shoutout to @ZachF for calling $700s when this avalanche started. It seemed unimaginable at the time.

 

[Big Time]

Curts trying to put 5 floor lamps inside of a car at the same time right now

 

[StealthP3D]

Couple notes on that.
Model 3 with the basic 18 wheels at $44,990 is October. June is the 19 wheels and total cost is $46,490
Model Y with the basic 19 wheels at $58,990 is December. August is the 20 inch wheels and total cost is $60,990

Thank you for that! The table @Chunky Jr. posted cannot be interpreted very meaningfully without those juicy little bits of info!

Which makes me wonder who created the table and what their motivation was. Because, while that table looks bullish at first glance, it's not nearly as bullish as when you consider these two bits of info. This is going to drive selection of higher trim levels and margins right when that could be most useful (as Tesla is ramping two new Gigafactories).

 

[bballshinobi]

Loved listening to that this morning. Rob's preternatural patience definitely cracking though, lol.

He cracked me up when he said "that's really stupid, for real" about the market's reaction to the ER. One of the few times he couldn't suffer the fools. And this is a guy who sat through an hour long interview with Gordon lol