Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

Man how many times is this going to be brought up. Ark is buying heavily beaten down stocks that they have high conviction in. TDOC is trading at 25% of its 2021 high. Despite our hand wringing TSLA is doing very well by comparison. They are just swing trading within their portfolio.
Doesn’t mean they lost confidence in Tesla.

Yes, we understand what they are doing: doubling down on the bubble stocks they have been losing money on at the expense of TSLA, the only stock that made them a winner in the past 2 years. The question is, at one point does one declare it "insanity" to keep repeating an action that keeps bringing negative results ?

To put it bluntly: how long can TSLA keep ARK afloat if they keep dumping TSLA and keep buying losers instead ?

 

[Singuy]

In general, I agree with Cathie's/ARK's view on inflation/deflation in that deflationary forces such as technology(especially in remote work) and renewable energy will be stronger than the traditional inflation forces. So I actually see inflation leveling off in a pretty dramatic way in the 2nd half of this year and I don't think interest rates are going to something like 3-4% like some are fearing. The issue though is that it could take all of 2022 for the picture to become clear about the recent spike in inflation.

During that time, the Fed's could raise rates 3-4 times this year. Tesla will be fine because they'll actually be posting very strong earnings. But the rest of ARK's stock picks could very well continue to plummet for a good part of 2022 until they finally bottom.

Like every seasoned investor knows, you could be right on something at the wrong time. Cathy/ARK have been very wrong so far on their timing. I do think they're right on their view of inflation, but they initiated this strategy of selling of TSLA to buy their battered stocks about a year too early.

Well it's hard to predict what the bottom is and how much the market have already priced in 3-4 times worth of fed rate hikes already.

 

[Singuy]

Yes, we understand what they are doing: doubling down on the bubble stocks they have been losing money on at the expense of TSLA, the only stock that made them a winner in the past 2 years. The question is, at one point does one declare it "insanity" to keep repeating an action that keeps bringing negative results ?

To put it bluntly: how long can TSLA keep ARK afloat if they keep dumping TSLA and keep buying losers instead ?

Well in her defense, the stock can be losers until they are not. Genomics kept her portfolio positive in 2019 because Tsla was one gigantic dumpster fire in their portfolio while they were buying loser Tsla up that year.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well it's hard to predict what the bottom is and how much the market have already priced in 3-4 times worth of fed rate hikes already.

Definitely hard to predict a bottom but Cathy/ARK should know, there's nothing in their vast majority of their stocks that offer ANY kind of fundamental support. They have to be aware that they're catching a falling knife that has no clear bottom to it. And given the macro environment, I'd say what they've been doing is reckless.

Probably the thing I'm the most dismayed by ARK's decision is when they're selling TSLA. Sell it 1200 after that massive gamma squeeze to buy more of your hammered stocks? Sure, that's relatively smart. But they were selling back in the low 700's. They were selling just a couple weeks ago when the stock was back in the 900's. They're selling in the low 1,000's when we all know Tesla is about to post blowout earnings. The way they're doing this is pretty dumbfounding. And again, ARK very much might be right about inflation. But that's going to take time for the picture to become clear.

To be honest, I actually do not think they understand or are as knowledgeable about Tesla as it first appears. Most of their valuation comes from Robotaxi and when Cathy and other ARK members do interviews, that's almost exclusively what they talk about when they talk valuation of Tesla.

Robotaxi is nice and if it works out, well then we're all buying islands. But in no way am I modeling out where what I think fair value for TSLA is today or where it will be in future years with Robotaxi included. All of my estimates are based on Tesla's actual businesses and eventually FSD wide release which has much higher odds than a full on Robotaxi service.

 

[Singuy]

Definitely hard to predict a bottom but Cathy/ARK should know, there's nothing in their vast majority of their stocks that offer ANY kind of fundamental support. They have to be aware that they're catching a falling knife that has no clear bottom to it. And given the macro environment, I'd say what they've been doing is reckless.

Probably the thing I'm the most dismayed by ARK's decision is when they're selling TSLA. Sell it 1200 after that massive gamma squeeze to buy more of your hammered stocks? Sure, that's relatively smart. But they were selling back in the low 700's. They were selling just a couple weeks ago when the stock was back in the 900's. They're selling in the low 1,000's when we all know Tesla is about to post blowout earnings. The way they're doing this is pretty dumbfounding. And again, ARK very much might be right about inflation. But that's going to take time for the picture to become clear.

To be honest, I actually do not think they understand or are as knowledgeable about Tesla as it first appears. Most of their valuation comes from Robotaxi and when Cathy and other ARK members do interviews, that's almost exclusively what they talk about when they talk valuation of Tesla.

Robotaxi is nice and if it works out, well then we're all buying islands. But in no way am I modeling out where what I think fair value for TSLA is today or where it will be in future years with Robotaxi included. All of my estimates are based on Tesla's actual businesses and eventually FSD wide release which has much higher odds than a full on Robotaxi service.

Well, those small caps are not making much of a net income but they are all pretty decent revenue growers and most have did some kind of offering to strengthen their battle chest at ridiculous valuations. Tho some companies I think might be straight out fraud, but currently some of these companies have more cash on hand due to their share offerings last year than their total marketcap which is kind of funny.

We shouldn't discount that this might just be one gigantic short play on Cathie's stocks.
Check out the date on SARK ETF's(short ARK ETF) inception: Nov 9th 2021. And when have all of Arkk's pick have gone? Down since then.

 

[MXWing]

What completely blows my mind is BROKU and TOXICDOC still going to be cheap after JAN 26th. Tesla most likely not.

You sell on blow off tops, not when were sitting on low levels like how we are.

Sub 1200 is truly a joke. There's free 15% upside right now that ARK is missing out on.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

ARK’s actions over the past 6 months will make them look like some of the biggest investing fools in recent memory

ARK has been selling TSLA for two years.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well, those small caps are not making much of a net income but they are all pretty decent revenue growers and most have did some kind of offering to strengthen their battle chest at ridiculous valuations. Tho some companies I think might be straight out fraud, but currently some of these companies have more cash on hand due to their share offerings last year than their total marketcap which is kind of funny.

We shouldn't discount that this might just be one gigantic short play on Cathie's stocks.
Check out the date on SARK ETF's(short ARK ETF) inception: Nov 9th 2021. And when have all of Arkk's pick have gone? Down since then.

True (about the action in ARK funds since Nov) but all the ARK funds were down already 20% or so before Nov. Starting in November, that's really when every stock with no earnings started to get a new round of pummeling after seeming to flatline for about 3-4 months there.....mostly from the inflation spike. Could ARK funds be being targeted by shorting? Sure, definitely could be some of that.

But the other notable thing is that ARK has been continually selling TSLA across mid 2021 and then starting around Sept, they started to actually sell more TSLA than they technically needed, which they've continually kept doing. Which is which why TSLA gives the ARK funds less and less support and why TSLA and all of the ARK funds continue to diverge at a rapid pace.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

ARK has been selling TSLA for two years.

Yes they've been selling for years, but it was always because they had rules of how much TSLA could make up % wise. And even then, they routinely let TSLA be 11-12% of the ARK funds at times.

Starting about 3-4 months ago though, they intensified their TSLA selling and have actually bringing their % of TSLA in their portfolio well below 10%.

 

[Singuy]

True (about the action in ARK funds since Nov) but all the ARK funds were down already 20% or so before Nov. Starting in November, that's really when every stock with no earnings started to get a new round of pummeling after seeming to flatline for about 3-4 months there.....mostly from the inflation spike. Could ARK funds be being targeted by shorting? Sure, definitely could be some of that.

But the other notable thing is that ARK has been continually selling TSLA across mid 2021 and then starting around Sept, they started to actually sell more TSLA than they technically needed, which they've continually kept doing. Which is which why TSLA gives the ARK funds less and less support and why TSLA and all of the ARK funds continue to diverge at a rapid pace.

For sure, however I do believe if there's a turn around on small cap, it might be pretty violent. It's a gamble for sure and we don't know when or if it'll ever happen. But I guess she's willing to sacrifice lower risky stuff for higher reward gains.

Well conviction is conviction. We have been there, telling people to buy the dip no matter the pain and that's how you become wealthy. Those who have done so in 2019 now has life changing net worth, those who were afraid are still poor today. I may not agree with her picks but I can't fault her for having conviction.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Doesn’t mean they lost confidence in Tesla.

The problem is, they have more conviction in their 4 or 5 platforms of change than they have in Tesla. I'll take the most innovative company, with the best leader that operates in the fastest growing segment. ARK can have their ordinary companies, with average leaders and uninspired workforce that just happens to be involved with fintech, AI or genomics.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Yes they've been selling for years, but it was always because they had rules of how much TSLA could make up % wise. And even then, they routinely let TSLA be 11-12% of the ARK funds at times.

Starting about 3-4 months ago though, they intensified their TSLA selling and have actually bringing their % of TSLA in their portfolio well below 10%.

They can only buy up to 10% but they can hold up to 30%

I have to admit, at this point their strategy is starting to look tempting. I'm thinking about selling a small amount after earnings and buying names such as ZM, SQ, COIN, RBLX.

 

[deffu]

Man how many times is this going to be brought up. Ark is buying heavily beaten down stocks that they have high conviction in. TDOC is trading at 25% of its 2021 high. Despite our hand wringing TSLA is doing very well by comparison. They are just swing trading within their portfolio.
Doesn’t mean they lost confidence in Tesla.

It might be arkk knows tsla will soon grow to 10% maximum position from ~5% so they front run it

 

[AudubonB]

Mod Reminder:
Strange as it may appear, this is NOT the ARK/Cathie Wood thread. Any more such posts and ALL of the above will be eliminated. On second thought, perhaps they will be, anyway.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1482215466856812544

 

[deffu]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1482215466856812544

Birds r not real. Whales r fake.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

From Barrons.com:​

GM Stock Is a Buy. The Company Is Quickly Becoming a Major EV Player.​

"Several factors play into the bullish case for GM—with a key part being that the automaker plans to double its revenue to about $300 billion by 2030. Nearly a third of those sales, GM predicts, will come from EVs."

"It seems reasonable to expect that GM will narrow the gap between the [Tesla and GM] as it becomes more of an EV player"

With 26 EVs sold in Q4, they will surely soon narrow the gap to Tesla! They'll only need to grow 11,763% QoQ to catch Tesla!

In related news, when my girlfriend sends me a selfie, I usually respond with a Fire emoji.

I have now upped my game and just tell her she looks Bolt.

 

[deffu]

Elon musk is in Germany. He just twitted “top”. Seems he is not into his favorite doggy style tonight. Hopefully he brought some water with him. Because I heard there is some water problem there. Surely water can function as good lubricant. Btw, was Brandenburg state part of former east Germany? We still suffer from communist bureaucracy?
Anyway, don’t look up!

 

[bballshinobi]

First, you make that sound like he predicted we would drop to 1030 yesterday, but he didn't. He made a prediction based on if we went below 1030, which we did.

How many days do we give his prediction, that we will now drop to 940, before we say that his prediction was wrong?

We don’t need to always look down on TA. I get that we are all HODLing, and I get that in the long term it doesn’t matter if you buy at $1,080 or $1,020 if the stock is at $2,500. However, for newer investors it can be devastating/challenging/annoying to see a stock you just bought go down significantly right away. It’s also easier to HODL when you enter at a good price point. There really is no need to make fun of TA just because you are up 3 million % on your cost basis. We know you are awesome and we wish we bought TSLA earlier too. As a group, we should help new investor get started and help them. Telling them to buy at $1,200 wouldn’t be a great advice (good advice in the long run, but not great). It’s such a hollow advice and most likely that person will have paper loss right away. Instead, pointing out potential support levels to them will help them get in at more favorable positions and hopefully help them become real investors.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

It may be wise to ponder the meaning of a pattern forming.

Btc was attempted briefly. Then Btc was pulled. Now Doge is being tried after the Lex interview.

It appears that Btc is in the rear view mirror. My expectation is that there could be a price to be paid as Btc advocates exact a cost as first principles thinking selects Doge. YMMV

Indeed. This could be a turning point. I can confirm the transaction fee was almost as infinitisimally low as the transaction time. Shame the invoice showed the FIAT amount and of course the sales tax in FIAT.