Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[deffu]

I upgrade my 01/03 price target to $1200

I raise my 01/07 Friday tsla price target to $1300

 

[ThisStockGood]

congrats longs. Exciting times indeed.

 

[kanweg]

Music?

And, with that mega profit, the minor debt will be further reduced/evaporated? So, an (overdue) rating upgrade would be in order, right?

 

[tivoboy]

That's how you get a down payment on a car, not how you get early retirement.

I’m already basically retired, so it‘s no longer a target for me. ;-)

 

[thesmokingman]

It's almost 4:20 time.

 

[tivoboy]

View attachment 751512

$1200

I just have to post, I love ANYTHING Lilu!

 

[thx1139]

Who thinks that the typical analysts we will see quarterly financial estimates will barely adjust estimates based on the production and delivery news. So I expect TSLA to continue to run up before earnings. Then shock from financial community when financials are better then expected.

 

[thx1139]

Whats the appropriate thing to do on a day like this at 420PM?

 

[Christine69420]

How many Gordons is this again? Or is it a Daddy Gordon?

 

[Cape Coddess]

Whats the appropriate thing to do on a day like this at 420PM?

 

[Causalien]

I feel vindicated today. Arguing with gas heads and used all their argument against tsla on their precious Ford's puny electric push.

At least they are not telling me that climate change is a hoax now and stfu when I say the ev manufactueing is the most important part.

 

[henchman24]

I guess I should clarify.

The move in November felt like an intentional gamma squeeze. One that was pretty much entirely based on momentum. I mean the Hertz deal was nice and all but it was just an "excuse" to create the gamma squeeze.

This, I feel, is mostly genuine buying from big data beat that has substantial impact to future earnings. The genuine buying is the one creating the gamma squeeze.

So yes, you can say this is a gamma squeeze, but the context around the cause and the substance of the move is much more sustaining

Most gamma squeezes are actually caused by massive institutional buying... mostly based off a material change in fundamentals. The AMC types are far more rare. I wouldn't say October was caused by Hertz so much as a few events in a row... a good deliveries number, Hertz deal, and then killer earnings. Those events pushed more institutions in which pushed past what the option chain would allow. Elon just let the air out of the stock with his announcement. Here we have Elon's selling pressure over and an utterly massive beat on deliveries... which will cause institutions back in with raising expectations. This will be followed by massive earnings... but we have already pushed past what the option chain can allow in a gain. There will be a hell of a push Wednesday and Thursday to make this more manageable (IMO they are going to try to hold 1250, but 1300 is the real stop they need). If the stock holds 1250-1300, then that should at least hold next week to give time and lessen the pressure on 1/21. If 1300 can't be held, 1375 is the next target with 1500 becoming possible. For us bulls, the fundamentals are there for 1500 right now, for the street though... they need earnings projected for 2022 to be over 13.50. I don't think many are quite there yet.

 

[thx1139]

Thats one choice. To bad my son is staying with us in Key West this week before heading back to college.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Look at AH. Not done for today, way too early for the tequila guys!

 

[Marc_K_inNJ]

Looks like the sp is already working on tomorrow’s gap up opening…
Do the shorts have gap insurance…?

 

[geometro]

I guess I should clarify.

The move in November felt like an intentional gamma squeeze. One that was pretty much entirely based on momentum. I mean the Hertz deal was nice and all but it was just an "excuse" to create the gamma squeeze.

This, I feel, is mostly genuine buying from big data beat that has substantial impact to future earnings. The genuine buying is the one creating the gamma squeeze.

So yes, you can say this is a gamma squeeze, but the context around the cause and the substance of the move is much more sustaining

Agreed, but November was also on the heels on strong Q3 earnings and conference call which I felt was very substantial.

Edit to add that I liked the early Q4 run up more than the Q1 ‘20 run up. I don’t want to jinx anything by opining on this run up

 

[KMCC]

It's almost 4:20 time.

All day today was 4/20 time

 

[StealthP3D]

Brokerage account gains today equal to 4x my annual salary...wow.

That's pretty good, but today's gains exceed 4x my lifetime earnings from age 16 until I retired. That's the power of compounding long-term growth while investing in companies that like to innovate. When I was a commercial fisherman, I thought a $500 day was something pretty special and we would only get a few of them. Typical day fishing in AK was grinding away for 12-14 hours, delivering the fish and getting ready to do it all again the next day, all for about $100 in earnings. Most profitable day ever was $3000/person and we felt like we had won the lottery! Didn't get paid a penny for the week or two it took to get the gear/boat ready each spring, or the week round trip to/from fishing grounds (more like a free adventure vacation). I also took on winter jobs and other work whenever I could. Now I can gain more in one day like this than 4 working careers.

 

[tivoboy]

I'm curious, how does your model predict such things with any accuracy? What catalysts make you think TSLA will fall below $1K in the next 60 days?

I'll just say, do you know what is in the formula for coke? (coca-cola to be specific) or what spices actually make up the Colonels recipe? Some of these things are kept close to to the chest. Like the model I used in 2008 to get out in August 2008 (and most of my clients) and the model I used in 2009-2011 to market time every federal reserve and rate move (and make 15000% in the options market) Dont' expect these little nuggets to be revealed, most likely ever. The game has many layers, and if one doesn't see them all the opportunity is high to slip on ice.. The only thing I post here is NO, not now, or here is your target, or wait, let the price come to you, or here is where I will scale in, or NOW is the time to enter or exit, but that doesn't illuminate the model, calculation or observation being used - but it is indicative.

Buy or don't buy
Sell or don't sell
that is the question

 

[Singuy]

Looks like the sp is already working on tomorrow’s gap up opening…
Do the shorts have gap insurance…?

Gamma squeeze days are always fun to watch AH. Probably end up running another 2-3%. Crazy stuff.