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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Devil's advocate here... usually the internet commentary I read about Time Magazine POTY is "who cares?" / "TIME is irrelevant" / "TIME still magazine exists?" etc.. All of a sudden we are enthralled by their choice this year.
Praise when they get something right and critique when they don't. Seems rational to me.
 
comp -.05%
spy - .5%
tsla - 4%

sensible…happy holidays!

Lower-BB achieved at 10:28:30 (shortzes DO NOT care about "news")

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2021-12-13.10-28.50.png
 
Btw, I absolutely hate agreeing with Gary Black, but that this point I do think Elon should just cancel the scheduled selling (and say that he is) and proceed to do the remainder of his selling at another time. He has until August of next year.

It's just open season on the stock now and he's enriching the very hedge funds his hates. His scheduled sells seem to have random intent to prevent hedgies knowing when he's going to sell, but it hasn't mattered. Hedge funds are just front running every week with massive shorting. I don't really put any blame on Elon because after all, the macro environment has changed but at a certain point you gotta stop hurting your own stock/investors.
 
cnbc ran a story on bubble stocks last Friday, including Tesla in the
group. And now barons. This may be a reaction the FUD.
Who wakes up dumping Tesla stock first thing in the morning.
I dont believe regular people are dumping the stock. This is all hedge funds pushing it down until Elon says he is done selling. We aren't going anywhere but down till P+D or Elon completes his sale. If you want to trade...trade accordingly. This is easy money for Wall Street, sell calls and short the stock.
 
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Yup, feel the same. Gaps don't matter until they are close, then gaps matter in a big way. If it breaks, it will be a really nice time to add!
Answer - No one is. This is short term shorting/naked shorting that's have a outsized impact on the stock because hedge funds know that the buyers won't show up until Elon's selling is much closer to being done.
 
My Tar line is fixed. It’s turning left so it’s off center only to show the line clearly in this frame. Very shiny but not fooled. This is improving fairly quickly.
I tested this patch of road several times yesterday with mixed results and I don't want to sugar coat anything here. Although it was the first evidence of a fix, later in the day the tree shadows crossed the road and again it got confused on where center of the road was. (Not a big deal here, it says in lane the whole time). It seemed to spook on a rare occasion with tree shadows (which is something that went away for me a long time ago). However, these variables around lighting are confluencing I think bc without the tree shadows it was fine (not a controlled experiment obviously). Keep in mind, the tar line looks like a road line and is almost perfectly straight and defined down the road center with room to travel either side. It's my # go to test on line recognition.

Speaking of lines, I would like to point out there was a story last night on a Model Y using Beta FSD and driving off the road. The vehicle appeared to turn into oncoming traffic, then the driver over corrected into the trees off to the right. What I also saw was the vehicle went perfectly straight, across the centerlines as the road curved to the right. The lines were solid double yellow and very clearly marked, so I suspect the driver may have tapped their brakes by accident as a much more likely explanation. These events or accidents will clearly get spun as FSD gets more real, but I can't say for sure what happened as the cars screen wasn't visible in the video.

For the folks who are first getting FSD Beta (and there could be many according to TeslaFi), please get used to the fast handling of Tesla steering and how to properly take over control. Overcorrection with all vehicle types is extremely common at higher speeds and it doesn't take much. This is why I prefer using the light tap method on the brakes to disengage before correcting as steering while braking sets up for very uneven tire traction and a + feedback loop to increase steering more.

I'm not sure I recommend the tap method for everyone bc you don't want to actually engage any brakes pads (and maybe using the stock is better in some ways, but this takes more time). I am used to it bc of my time on snow and ice. If you even slightly touch brakes on ice, it can set up a spin or break traction in a split second. And braking while turning is asking for trouble, but most drivers aren't skilled enough to even be aware of this physics. Oversteering happens on all vehicles and to many drivers, even the best.

Anyway, taking over control by forcing the wheel, in some cases and especially at higher speeds, could easily cause problems for an unskilled driver. If you think this sounds dangerous, then you're probably not ready for Beta. And by the same token, if you have an illusion that FSD will not cause accidents and be in the headlines with the competition shorting TSLA on every event, think again. A driving score of 99 or 100 does not test these advanced "hands-on" skills, nor does it consider your experience or even time using FSD - which IMHO should be a strong requirement for consideration into Beta (maybe they do this behind the scenes, IDK).

Given this, I'd be lying if I thought FSD was ready for full release this quarter, maybe Q1 TBD. Mostly because the average driver is going to make their usual driving errors and end up in a ditch and in the news while blaming it on FSD. The resistance on the steering wheel, which requires a bit more force for disengaging, adds to the overcorrection issue IMO. So tap the brakes then correct (if time allows), and I highly recommend when first trying it, practice disengaging a lot. Start at low speed and build up speed, skill, and confidence from there. Many do use the standard FSD on the freeways and there doesn't seem to be any growing concern there. But now we're getting into undivided territory, so be careful and keep it safe (speed etc).
 
Picked up another 25 @ $975 and 18 @ $970 ....

that's it i am done accumulating TSLA .. finally hit my share goal which i started from 2017 my DCA average price over 4 + years is... wait for it ...

DCA $141/share
lowest price per share $36 in 6/2019
highest price per share $985 in 11/2021

I want the thank my TMC virtual investing group for providing me with the required conviction in the face of extreme FUD over the years ... i think i might have finally snagged some Elon shares today :D
 
Now that we've broken the 50-day in a convincing fashion (barring some sort of miraculous turnaround like ya know buyers actually stepping in), to me it's clear the target is to drive it down to the 100 day moving average.

That's currently at $862/share. It moves up about $4-5 every trading day. By the end of the year it will be about $910/share. That's the target.

Lol, I don't think so. :p

They'll want to ride the Lower-BB down as long as Elon's selling lasts. They're still hoping to 'close-the-gap' to Oct 22nd: (that'd be $910.00)

sc.TSLA.50-DayChart.2021-12-10.20-00.png


Don't worry, it'll be fine. If you got spare cash, that's a nice entry point. Otherwise, Austin, Berlin, and Q4 numbers are coming.

TSLA investors will be fine; TSLA speculators may be bruised. ;)

Cheers!
 
Oops lol, I quoted the wrong person 🤣

My bad
Just giving ya hell!


Gaps act as support and when they break, they need filled. Right now, it seems pretty clear the market is okay with a ~1T valuation of Tesla. Anything too far below that, has some buying pressure. Combine that with the gap up and there is solid support there. If the gap support breaks, well, the gap is likely to be filled and then substantial buying pressure up to the 1T mark again. Regardless of Elon as we are seeing this pattern. Once Elon is done selling, there will naturally be more pressure up that should stabilize until the next catalyst (might happen at the same time).