Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[new_sneakers]

Release notes for FSD Beta 10.5 (I saw this on reddit)

• Improved VRU (pedestrians, bicyclists, motorcycles) crossing velocity error by 20% from improved quality in our auto-labeling.
• Improved static world predictions (road lines, edges, and lane connectivity) by up to 13% using a new static world auto-labeler and adding 165K auto-labeled videos.
• Improved cone and sign detections by upreving the generalized static object network with 15K more video clips and adjusting oversampling and overweighting strategies (+4.5% precision, +10.4% recall).
• Improved cut-in detection network by 5.5% to help reduce false slowdowns.
• Enabled “emergency collision avoidance maneuvering” in shadow mode.
• Enabled behavior to lane change away from merges when safe to do so.
• Improved merge object detection recall by using multi-modal object prediction at intersections.
• Improved control for merges by increasing smoothness of arrival time constraints and considering possible merging objects beyond visibility.
• Improved lane changes by allowing larger deceleration limit in short-deadline situations.
• Improved lateral control for creeping forward to get more visibility.
• Improved modeling of road boundaries on high curvature roads for finer maneuvers.
• Improved logic to stay on-route and avoid unnecessary detours/rerouting.

Separately, WholeMarsCatalog (@WholeMarsBlog) tweeted that it wouldn't be released until tomorrow, for what it's worth.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Visited Fashion Mall in Scottsdale Az and seems some EV challengers have joined Tesla in this hi-end mall. Here's the new Lucid Showroom, opened a week ago, (wishing I had a better camera.)

Pricey, but nice specs at 1,100 HP. The motor on the left is 670 HP - inverter and gear case combined... Wow. Their 1,000 Vdc likely means a lot less copper needed for the same power.

No executive rear seats shown yet, those looked very cool from early photos.

Would it be too cheesy to show Lucid Panel Gaps? This little corner curled up, but it's a showroom car right? The line on the right is a normal part of the bodyline. This launch must be pretty early still.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Tesla just installed our Solar and Powerwalls 2 yrs ago on our Ceramic Tile roof, and of course the roof is old and now leaky - not that it will rain anymore in Az. I knew this day would come, but not so soon. Quote for new roof (same in kind) was $11K plus Tesla charge for removal/install of panels, plus downtime.

So... decided to start over with the latest solar roof, and fix it for good while the tax incentives are still hot. Funny thing, my neighbor is interested in the "old" panels, and I don't need Powerwalls so not a complete loss. Will be interesting to see if Tesla uses my old inverter. They only recommended 1 Powerwall today while they used to recommend 3, so must be the shortage (or amazing batteries, anyone?).

The real winner, our SRP Utility company. We'll be producing lots of extra power and they don't pay well. No autobidder around here, best solar in America, go figure. I'm sure I owe some clean power back into the system to collect my 2 cents and peace of mind.

Decision for me is hinges on a Q4 earnings and a smooth FSD rollout. (Still waiting at 98 score and 100 past 10 days.) This could help Q1 numbers as the install likely won't be for many months.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1462119550468636683

wow. smart highbeam.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1462319573261246466

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1462191072784781312

 

[MABMAB]

Quoting Lora:

The second, harsher email [from Elon] reminded employees there are only three options when Musk sends directions: explain why he’s wrong, request further clarification, or execute.​

What Lora failed to mention is that the first option (in Elon's words: "Email me back to explain why what I said was incorrect. Sometimes, I’m just plain wrong!") is unheard-of behavior in corporate CEOs, according to Sandy Munro:

Corporate culture comes from the top. When ideas are judged on merit, not origin, in the entire organization, you get an organization like Tesla, attracting the most brilliant idea-generators in the world.

On the video in the link: A youtube video about someone elses youtube video interview? The parasitic (symbiotic) cottage industry could grow further by doing best of youtube rehash each week. Perhaps a TSLAQ fail army compiler? Or maybe a three day long background TSLA bull speech to play in the background?

 

[Buckminster]

Elon clearly reads TMC and is trolling the mods with this numerology thing.

Mods - can we at least have a temporary reprieve on numerology on this thread up to the 9th of December? Even if there is nothing in it, the SP will likely rise significantly on the rumour alone. Latest cast iron clue can be read here:
BLISS

 

[SN_8]

Elon clearly reads TMC and is trolling the mods with this numerology thing.

Mods - can we at least have a temporary reprieve on numerology on this thread up to the 9th of December? Even if there is nothing in it, the SP will likely rise significantly on the rumour alone. Latest cast iron clue can be read here:
BLISS

Put me on record as saying that nothing material will happen on 12/9. In the unlikely event that something was planned for that specific date, and in the even more unlikely event that Elon was using his valuable time and intellect to drop obscure twitter clues, then the amount of attention that this has garnered is enough to postpone those plans over regulatory concerns.

Spoiler: But it's all hokum anyway.

 

[winfield100]

Same data, one on semi log "paper" Y axis log scale (powers of 10) (TSLA from the beginning)

Tesla "stair stepped" up after 3 years, then again after another 6 years

are we in the beginning, middle or end of next "stair step up"
my suspicion is more towards the beginning (look at the increase in volatility the last 4-5 weeks ATR has tripled)

ATR has tripled in the last month or so _after_ chugging along at +/- ~20-23/day now ~65 or so suddenly
@Curt Renz comments please

 

[Stretch2727]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1462119550468636683

wow. smart highbeam.

I understand these just became legal in the US with the infrastructure bill. Will take some time for the regulations to be update and the change over. Likely still a few years out.

Infrastructure law paves way for adaptive headlights in US

Headlights where the high beams can be left permanently on without blinding other drivers could soon be legal in the U.S.

www.motorauthority.com

 

[Unpilot]

Same data, one on semi log "paper" Y axis log scale (powers of 10) (TSLA from the beginning)

Tesla "stair stepped" up after 3 years, then again after another 6 years

are we in the beginning, middle or end of next "stair step up"
my suspicion is more towards the beginning (look at the increase in volatility the last 4-5 weeks ATR has tripled)
View attachment 735579

ATR has tripled in the last month or so _after_ chugging along at +/- ~20-23/day now ~65 or so suddenly
@Curt Renz comments please

View attachment 735581

ATR?

 

[2daMoon]

As usual, let's wrap up another ticker withdrawal weekend with some Tesla news from Lars.

 

[ZachF]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1462191072784781312

I suspect the long term ideal is for cars to drive themselves to their customers straight from the factory though.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I'm pretty sure I saw an image of the "wetting bush" ready to go up on the finished Austin frame.

"Topping Off" without a Fir tree?

 

[Lessmog]

ATR?

Average True Range, says so inside the graph.

 

[AudubonB]

Elon clearly reads TMC and is trolling the mods with this numerology thing.

Mods - can we at least have a temporary reprieve on numerology on this thread up to the 9th of December? Even if there is nothing in it, the SP will likely rise significantly on the rumour alone. Latest cast iron clue can be read here:
BLISS

NO, Elon, we will not. Now stop trolling this thread and get back to work. Sheesh!

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I understand these just became legal in the US with the infrastructure bill. Will take some time for the regulations to be update and the change over. Likely still a few years out.

Infrastructure law paves way for adaptive headlights in US

Headlights where the high beams can be left permanently on without blinding other drivers could soon be legal in the U.S.

www.motorauthority.com

Anyone know if Tesla will need to update the headlight hardware to implement this, or if they can do it in software update for at least some existing vehicles? I know we have multiple elements on the existing headlights, just not sure if they're individually addressable or even aimed in a way that would be useful for this feature.

Things I'm willing to pay Tesla a reasonable amount (i.e. cost + labor + some reasonable but not dealer-esque markup) to upgrade on my 2018 Model 3 LR:

• Adaptive headlights
• Upgraded computer (I have HW3 w/ FSD package, but the actual UI computer could use some upgrades, streaming services are almost unusably slow to navigate, etc) - bonus points if this gets me a glovebox USB3 connector for dashcam/music
• Amber rear turn signals (they have it in the EU... obviously this is a complete replacement of the rear light housings, plus software reprogramming, hopefully no wiring changes)
• Lithium 12V replacement (when inevitably the existing one is due for replacement)
• Upgraded USB charging ports (it is well documented how to do this ourselves, but requires making / buying adapter cables which is a hassle when they could conceivably sell them to us as part of an upgrade service)
• AM radio (even if it suffers from EMI from the car, would like the option to have it for those places that broadcast warnings and such on AM - in theory could be just a replacement of the FM module with an AM/FM module)

I almost included the external speaker for the sentry mode lulz (since my car probably doesn't have wiring for it, it's not as simple as buying the speaker alone like some have done), but honestly, it's not that cool/useful enough for me to bother even if all I needed was the speaker...

 

[AudubonB]

Release notes for FSD Beta 10.5 (I saw this on reddit)

• Improved VRU (pedestrians, bicyclists, motorcycles) crossing velocity error by 20% from improved quality in our auto-labeling.
• Improved static world predictions (road lines, edges, and lane connectivity) by up to 13% using a new static world auto-labeler and adding 165K auto-labeled videos.
• Improved cone and sign detections by upreving the generalized static object network with 15K more video clips and adjusting oversampling and overweighting strategies (+4.5% precision, +10.4% recall).
• Improved cut-in detection network by 5.5% to help reduce false slowdowns.
• Enabled “emergency collision avoidance maneuvering” in shadow mode.
• Enabled behavior to lane change away from merges when safe to do so.
• Improved merge object detection recall by using multi-modal object prediction at intersections.
• Improved control for merges by increasing smoothness of arrival time constraints and considering possible merging objects beyond visibility.
• Improved lane changes by allowing larger deceleration limit in short-deadline situations.
• Improved lateral control for creeping forward to get more visibility.
• Improved modeling of road boundaries on high curvature roads for finer maneuvers.
• Improved logic to stay on-route and avoid unnecessary detours/rerouting.

Separately, WholeMarsCatalog (@WholeMarsBlog) tweeted that it wouldn't be released until tomorrow, for what it's worth.

Does one have to learn yet more coding terminology to understand the above, or is that third bullet point’s “upreving” a typo?

Asking for a fiend.

 

[thx1139]

Visited Fashion Mall in Scottsdale Az and seems some EV challengers have joined Tesla in this hi-end mall. Here's the new Lucid Showroom, opened a week ago, (wishing I had a better camera.)

Pricey, but nice specs at 1,100 HP. The motor on the left is 670 HP - inverter and gear case combined... Wow. Their 1,000 Vdc likely means a lot less copper needed for the same power.

No executive rear seats shown yet, those looked very cool from early photos.

View attachment 735543

Would it be too cheesy to show Lucid Panel Gaps? This little corner curled up, but it's a showroom car right? The line on the right is a normal part of the bodyline. This launch must be pretty early still.

View attachment 735545

Wait I thought gaps was a Tesla feature?