Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

Tesla improving their manufacturing lines didn't almost cost them the company, it's what made them the raging success that they are today.

Saying that legacy auto knows how to manufacture in volume is doing a grave disservice to Tesla is who is showing legacy auto how bad their volume manufacturing and efficiency actually is. And these are the companies that laughed at Tesla because they had over 100 years of experience they thought was unassailable. In the four short years since the Model 3 ramp began, Tesla has shown them just how little that 100 years of experience was worth. That is the arrogance of legacy auto and it's also what caused them to become so fat and lazy that they can make hundreds of millions of cars over the last 20 years with barely any real profit to show for it. Products that are a terrible value and that threaten our climate. They have failed to do the number one thing that defines a good company: create value. They are value destroyers.

Legacy auto has become so fat and lazy that a small upstart named Tesla, a company smaller than a gnats eyelash relative to the majors, could waltz right in and show them how it's done. The entrenched automakers have been falling all over themselves trying to replicate what Tesla has done with EV's, right down to copying the large center screen that they were so critical of to begin with, and yet their cars still don't measure favorably and they can't even hope to match Tesla on pricing or volumes without going bankrupt.

Yeah, legacy auto really knows how to manufacture in volume. /s

I do hope that in, I don't know, 50 years or so ^THIS will be a piece that teaches about history.

Over the years, Musk Inc. has thrived by vertically integrated operations. All the way from Musk's imagination to the end consumer. Hertz, Carvana, Uber, and Uber drivers are not end consumers. They are all middle men that five years from now will not provide a valuable service to Tesla or end consumers.

Tesla is entering into an environment that constrains how it operates. If Tesla gives a dollar to the Hertzes of the world, politically speaking it is difficult to stop giving dollars to the Hertzes on a regular basis. And then Tesla has to do special things for the Hertzes because Tesla is not allowed to compete with the Hertzes.

The sensible thing to do is just to not give dollars to the Hertzes of the world in the first place. Problem solved.

Man, you are on a roll today.

 

[Paul_SF]

Some people be like this.

Some still short…

 

[thx1139]

Presented to you for your morning guffaw.

GM can 'absolutely' catch Tesla in EV sales by 2025, says CEO Mary Barra — CNBC

GM CEO Mary Barra told CNBC the automaker can "absolutely" catch Tesla in U.S. EV sales by 2025 with its planned electric vehicles, including a Hummer pickup.

apple.news

Honestly can someone press them to explain their math. I mean GM has the Bolt now and I cant see that sales going forward will be nothing but bad. The Hummer will sell whatever GM makes, but of course that is a couple dozen. The Lyriq doesnt go in sale until late 2022 at best. When is the Silverado and this unnamed Cross Over coming. Lets assume 2023 at best. Having 30 models by 2025 and only selling a few dozen of each (Exaggeration) wont catch up.

 

[lafrisbee]

Tesla > Hertz 100,000 by end of 2022 (initial order)
Tesla > Hertz > Uber 50,000 "BY 2023"

"BY 2023" - add own interpretation - Gary Black says not incremental, I say it might / will involve SOME extra cars, but I expect Hertz to increase past its initial order anyway as Teslas prove to be an economic success for Hertz

View attachment 726249

My Take on this...
Baby steps to Robo-taxi using Uber drivers short term. The Drivers will think they have a cash cow. And then the cow learns to milk itself..

 

[UncaNed]

Why do a few of us seem to be feeding what appears to be a troll that I have on Ignore?

Just Ignore them!

 

[Mengy]

Honestly can someone press them to explain their math. I mean GM has the Bolt now and I cant see that sales going forward will be nothing but bad. The Hummer will sell whatever GM makes, but of course that is a couple dozen. The Lyriq doesnt go in sale until late 2022 at best. When is the Silverado and this unnamed Cross Over coming. Lets assume 2023 at best. Having 30 models by 2025 and only selling a few dozen of each (Exaggeration) wont catch up.

You have to understand that when GM ways "30 models" that equates to:

4 versions of the Bolt
6 versions of the Hummer
10 versions of the EV Silverado
5 versions of the Lyriq
5 versions of whatever this EV crossover turns out to be

Old school auto considers every variant of a car a "new model", this makes what they promise sound more impressive than it actually is. It's marketing speak.

 

[Paul_SF]

Why do a few of us seem to be feeding what appears to be a troll that I have on Ignore?

Just Ignore them!

Done

 

[2daMoon]

Honestly can someone press them to explain their math. I mean GM has the Bolt now and I cant see that sales going forward will be nothing but bad. The Hummer will sell whatever GM makes, but of course that is a couple dozen. The Lyriq doesnt go in sale until late 2022 at best. When is the Silverado and this unnamed Cross Over coming. Lets assume 2023 at best. Having 30 models by 2025 and only selling a few dozen of each (Exaggeration) wont catch up.

It seems that from GMs perspective it is the number of models you offer, not the number of cars actually produced which is the goal. Mary's strategy is more about creating the illusion that GM is visionary and keeping with the times.

Meanwhile, I suspect they are issuing mandatory Depends (adult diapers) to board meeting attendees.

 

[mikevbf]

Tesla has a demand problem. Way too much demand. This actually gives an opening to its competitors: if people want an EV and don’t want to wait, some of them will buy another EV even though it’s a poor second choice for them.

Tesla needs to be ramping production too fast to rely on opening new gigafactories in new cities, which requires long lead times for planning, land acquisition and approval. I anticipate that it will just expand its Austin, Berlin and Shanghai facilities as fast as possible. Theoretically, it could be churning out 10 million vehicles annually from those three locations by 2025. And even with that they might not meet demand.

They have the land at those locations to expand, and it only takes them a year to replicate another factory on that land.

As the man says: “Let’s Go!”

One strategic reason to start new factories in new locations is the limiting factor to Tesla and all other companies for that matter which is attracting talent. As good as Tesla is at getting the best and brightest only through continuous effort to attract this talent will they continue to accelerate their fastest toward their mission in transitioning the world to sustainable energy. For this reason if they see a lot of latent talent in a place like lets say India, they will continue to consider opening new factories in these places. At the moment capital is not their limiting factor, so if they believe they can attract more talent in a new location while using their capital in a efficient way to do so, they will.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You have to understand that when GM ways "30 models" that equates to:

4 versions of the Bolt
6 versions of the Hummer
10 versions of the EV Silverado
5 versions of the Lyriq
5 versions of whatever this EV crossover turns out to be

Old school auto considers every variant of a car a "new model", this makes what they promise sound more impressive than it actually is. It's marketing speak.

Quite true.......2023 is going to be the year of reckoning for legacy Auto, especially here in the US with Ford and GM.

Berlin/Austin will be ramped along with 50% increase in Fremont and I think Shanghai will be up to 1 million annual production by then. Meanwhile, Ford/GM/VW/etc... are actually going to have to start showing production and sales that live up to the promises they're making. 2023 is far too close to 2025 so they won't be able to push the date out any further.

Enjoy the gloating and boastful comments while you can GM/Ford/VW/Toyota, but by putting out more clear targets, especially like GM has, they're setting themselves and their stock value to be crushed in 2023.

I personally am looking forward to 2023 more so to see the trainwreck that is going to happen with legacy auto makers.....It's going to be hilarious to watch. I'm already pretty confident where Tesla will be at (both in terms of production and stock price)

 

[Chunky Jr.]

No, it is not straightforward. Tesla sells very valuable software with its EVs that competes with Hertz's and Uber's businesses.

are you saying that Hertz will not buy FSD and that FSD will eventually compete with Hertz and Uber via Tesla Network of robotaxis? So as a result of that Tesla will have a problem because Hertz et al will pressure Tesla to do one off things for them that will end up being a distraction?

I don’t think Tesla would sign a deal that would limit them in any way like that.

 

[redan]

Ron Baron on CNBC:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453321979122098177

Ron Baron says he made $6 billion on Tesla investment, plans to be a shareholder for a long time

At more than $1,000 as of Wednesday, Baron's namesake investment firm holds almost 6 million Tesla shares, on a cost of ownership basis of $42.88 each.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Chunky Jr.]

You have to understand that when GM ways "30 models" that equates to:

4 versions of the Bolt
6 versions of the Hummer
10 versions of the EV Silverado
5 versions of the Lyriq
5 versions of whatever this EV crossover turns out to be

Old school auto considers every variant of a car a "new model", this makes what they promise sound more impressive than it actually is. It's marketing speak.

when Apple was at its nadir, they thought the answer was to have a zillion models of the Mac that targeted niches. Steve Jobs said that’s dumb and wanted one product for each of four categories ; home laptop and desktop, and pro laptop and desktop. I think Tesla is taking a page from that playbook. Have one great product for major auto categories so that consumers don’t get confused, and it is cheaper to build and maintain a more focused product line.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

are you saying that Hertz will not buy FSD and that FSD will eventually compete with Hertz and Uber via Tesla Network of robotaxis? So as a result of that Tesla will have a problem because Hertz et al will pressure Tesla to do one off things for them that will end up being a distraction?

I don’t think Tesla would sign a deal that would limit them in any way like that.

He also doesn't seem to get that Tesla has publicly stated no other company will be able to run a "business" through their FSD. All Robotaxi services on a Tesla vehicle have to go through Tesla's Robotaxi network.

Uber can't rent these Model 3's from Hertz and then run a robotaxi service of their own. Tesla knows exactly what vehicles they're selling to Hertz, they can track them. They have complete control over the software usage of them. This is a non-issue.

 

[Opus BC fan]

What we are watching with the auto OEMs is a large slow funeral procession, nothing more...

...and getting back on topic, it appears we have found today's TSLA happy place.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla received early commencement permitting for further construction and testing from Brandenburg State office of Environment, incl. complete paintshop cycle of 250 vehicles:

@GF4Tesla on Twitter has a link to the full document, for those interested in reading the 43 pages (German only). Page 5 refers to the 250 vehicles.

@Artful Dodger - it's the real deal....

Thanks! I knew you had it in you.

Cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

I had no idea Hertz lent out vehicles for Uber drivers. Interesting.

Also, Benedict Evans (never heard of him before yesterday) is a cry baby. Blocked me for a civil response to a responder to his tweet. Quite the leading mind in tech.

Also, wow, TSLA is in full "no Fs given" mode.

He also doesn't seem to get that Tesla has publicly stated no other company will be able to run a "business" through their FSD. All Robotaxi services on a Tesla vehicle have to go through Tesla's Robotaxi network.

Uber can't rent these Model 3's from Hertz and then run a robotaxi service of their own. Tesla knows exactly what vehicles they're selling to Hertz, they can track them. They have complete control over the software usage of them. This is a non-issue.

I assume RT license will not allow "sub leasing" which is effectively what this is. Same way if I rented a car from Hertz and tried to turn it into a Robotaxi.

 

[Rarity]

are you saying that Hertz will not buy FSD and that FSD will eventually compete with Hertz and Uber via Tesla Network of robotaxis? So as a result of that Tesla will have a problem because Hertz et al will pressure Tesla to do one off things for them that will end up being a distraction?

I don’t think Tesla would sign a deal that would limit them in any way like that.

Partly. I view FSD and the Tesla Network as software that provides car rentals by the trip, hour, day, etc. in a seamless manner. It is a direct competitor to Hertz and Uber.

Tesla is quickly becoming a very large company. The rules change for very large companies. In the US, that means antitrust scrutiny. In other countries, that means "cutting down to size" and constraining in other ways.

 

[winfield100]

Wait, I really want to buy more! I want it to go up because that’s great for the x number of shares I have but I still want to get 80-100 more, preferably on sale, to add to my collection.
When does a person ever say they bought their last TSLA shares, because I said that and two days later was trying to find a way to buy more.

@Sofie
switch to “dollar cost averaging/rage buy”
DCA/RB where you transfer money to brokerage, are allowed small margin interest like i do, being on fixed income retired (futures so bright, gotta wear shades)

 

[2daMoon]

Partly. I view FSD and the Tesla Network as software that provides car rentals by the trip, hour, day, etc. in a seamless manner. It is a direct competitor to Hertz and Uber.

Tesla is quickly becoming a very large company. The rules change for very large companies. In the US, that means antitrust scrutiny. In other countries, that means "cutting down to size" and constraining in other ways.

I'm in the other camp.

FSD App makes Tesla more attractive to companies like Hertz and Uber because it increases their potential profits.

Tesla simultaneously reaps increased profits the more Hertz and Uber utilize the app.

Tesla doesn't "sell" the software, they sell a subscription to use the software, thus generating recurring revenue from each car using it.