Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggies07]

BREAKING: Tesla has increased the price of all US Model Y variants. All Model Y variants have increased in price by $1,000. Standard Range Model 3 is now $2,000 more. M3 Performance is $1,000 more.

• Model Y starting price: $54,990
• Model 3 starting price: $41,990 https://t.co/jfZpPhqgQe

Seriously!?! WTF happened to the affordable car? Prices better go down once the 4680 lines are up next year and into 2023. The "affordable" version (third Gen.) of their plan is slowly drifting away....

 

[traxila]

Seriously!?! WTF happened to the affordable car? Prices better go down once the 4680 lines are up next year and into 2023. The "affordable" version (third Gen.) of their plan is slowly drifting away....

What does a company do if everything they make flies off the shelves? Six month back log… which will probably grow in the fourth Q if seasonal patterns hold.

Model 2 will solve this problem. Hard to get to it until battery problem is solved. Almost there…

In the meantime bask in the glory of the highest profit margins in the industry.

 

[mongo]

Seriously!?! WTF happened to the affordable car? Prices better go down once the 4680 lines are up next year and into 2023. The "affordable" version (third Gen.) of their plan is slowly drifting away....

Price doesn't matter if it's not in stock. Either prevents purchase.

 

[nativewolf]

I don't see that battery production challenge is almost solved. Actually I feel that 2022 to mid 2023 is almost guaranteed to be one long continuous battery challenge for every entity that needs batteries. For those most in need the challenge is the greatest. Tesla ranks very high on that chart so it is a huge challenge. The legacy makers transistor related chip shortage is a dent in GM and Ford and VW earnings for sure but that will work itself out before we have enough batteries. In some ways the chip shortage is doing wonders for the pure EVs with ability to engineer around product shortages.

Anyhow, batteries...I have tried counting all the production being built and from my quick skim of an effort it's very hard to see where the needed production comes from in 2022, I saw just a huge gulf. We need much greater commits. This is true not only for EVs but for Solar/Storage markets. Frankly we need storage just as much as we need EVs...if not more. We're going to have renewables at 20% of USA power fleet next year but storage is tiny. We need to be able to time shift, especially in CA where capacity exists.

 

[Krugerrand]

All that aside, why should anyone request investment advice from someone shedding Wall St and heading North To Alaska? I know I sure wouldn't!

And that’s a problem with people. The inability to see past the extraneous, the clothes, the meat suit, the facade, the edge of the box, the veil.

Convention breeds mediocrity, laziness, judgement. It is precisely the people who are doing it different that one needs to pay attention to. Have we not the primest example in front of our faces? Think back over your life. Every single extraordinary person I know forged their own path.

Your investment advice couldn’t possibly have been any worse than those we so often mock. Those who present themselves as and who represent the elite in the field given copious amounts of airtime.

As far as I know, none of us here are big name or little name Wallstreet. Yet look at us now.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Seriously!?! WTF happened to the affordable car? Prices better go down once the 4680 lines are up next year and into 2023. The "affordable" version (third Gen.) of their plan is slowly drifting away....

I would draw your attention to The Master Plan, which is to speed the advent of EVs and sustainable renewable energy.

We're supply constrained forever on these models. They're selling used for near new prices. Optimal strategy from here to achieve Master Plan goals is to bring in more money that can be leveraged in cell production and Energy products. Or even at least threaten to build out Model 2 manufacturing at scale.

With subsidies in the mail, the net prices of these will also be at all time lows, by the time today's existing order sheet is delivered.

 

[willow_hiller]

Anybody else notice that institutional questions are conspicuously missing from the Annual Meeting Say questions? They've changed the page layout so it's harder to tell, but it's very obvious when you compare to the Q2 call:

Tesla Q2 2021 Earnings Q&A

Say Shareholder Q&A for the Q2 2021 Earnings held on Jul 26, 2021 GMT. Shareholders ask questions and company leadership answers them!

app.saytechnologies.com

v.s.

Tesla 2021 Annual Meeting Q&A

Say Shareholder Q&A for the 2021 Annual Meeting held on Oct 07, 2021 GMT. Shareholders ask questions and company leadership answers them!

app.saytechnologies.com

 

[WarpedOne]

The most burning question:

With $TSLA stock price back into the $700-800 range, and likely heading higher. Would you consider another split to allow retail investors to continue adding shares at a decent, per share, price.

 

[Krugerrand]

I would draw your attention to The Master Plan, which is to speed the advent of EVs and sustainable renewable energy.

We're supply constrained forever on these models. They're selling used for near new prices. Optimal strategy from here to achieve Master Plan goals is to bring in more money that can be leveraged in cell production and Energy products. Or even at least threaten to build out Model 2 manufacturing at scale.

With subsidies in the mail, the net prices of these will also be at all time lows, by the time today's existing order sheet is delivered.

Hmm…I feel we’re going to be saying ‘EV subsidies/tax credits are any day now’ for as long as people chimed ‘Model S refresh any day now’. I’m pretty sure I’ll go insane before it comes to fruition (if ever).

Calling it: #dontholdyourbreath

 

[dm28997]

Here's a thought and a possible comparison. Tesla Energy, along with the vehicle divisions are raising prices as the demand exceeds supply. Gasoline/diesel and utility rates go up when demand is increasing as well. This appears quite bullish for TSLA. Simplicity is a beautiful thing. I am still pleasantly surprised that Tesla alone executed so flawlessly. What an enormous market for Tesla worldwide that now exists. Bugs are ironed out with the learning curve.
I don't care that many don't comprehend either due to ignorance or financial ties as this gives many of us opportunities to gain financially.
In other words it appears to be coming together faster than I anticipated. The paradigm shift is just beginning.
Enormous kudos to Elon and Tesla for something I thought wouldn't be possible in my life time. This makes me so happy and enthusiastic about the future.
As the old saying goes, Keep on Truckin.

 

[canoemore]

The most burning question:

The only burning thing about that question is its fiery disregard for correct punctuation.

I agree with you re: stock split though...

 

[heltok]

Tesla raising prices makes sense. There is just too much demand right now, the value proposition is too good and consumers are understanding this.

But Tesla is scaling rapidly, at 70%/year currently and probably gonna be around this rate for two more years at least. As they scale up production, at some point demand won’t scale equally fast and they will have to lower prices to scale up demand. People who want a cheaper Model Y will have to wait until everyone who are willing to pay more have gotten theirs or Tesla has scaled up production.

 

[JRP3]

The power of the cells is set by their chemistry, not their form factor.

It's both. Within the same chemistry smaller cells can put out higher C rates and cylindrical can put out higher rates than pouch/prismatic. 4680 mitigates this over conventional cylindrical with the tabless design. An 18650 tabless could have even higher C rates.

 

[Gigapress]

- Honest question - What needs to happen to fix this besides the end of the World? Is there a method to change this corruption and madness

If the cells have adhesive on the top and bottom, then that implies it's the honeycomb carrier that's the primary structural component, not the cells themselves At least in the traditional "honeycomb" sense of the word where the sandwich supplies torsional rigidity in addition to shear strength.

For the cell cans to really be structural members, they would need to be bonded to each neighboring cell along the vertical axis where they make contact. In the scenario above they are only bonded on the ends and would "float" in the carrier rather than being bonded along the sides.

If the cell is designed as you mention with a large end cap radius and there is no carrier, then the end cap would prevent the cell cans from being able to touch and be bonded.


This would seem to be a departure from what was described on battery day.

If they use a swiss cheese metal sheet like that but also fill all the voids between cells with adhesive then it would give the benefits of both. I think it could happen that way.

 

[phoggy123]

I don't see that battery production challenge is almost solved. Actually I feel that 2022 to mid 2023 is almost guaranteed to be one long continuous battery challenge for every entity that needs batteries. For those most in need the challenge is the greatest. Tesla ranks very high on that chart so it is a huge challenge. The legacy makers transistor related chip shortage is a dent in GM and Ford and VW earnings for sure but that will work itself out before we have enough batteries. In some ways the chip shortage is doing wonders for the pure EVs with ability to engineer around product shortages.

Anyhow, batteries...I have tried counting all the production being built and from my quick skim of an effort it's very hard to see where the needed production comes from in 2022, I saw just a huge gulf. We need much greater commits. This is true not only for EVs but for Solar/Storage markets. Frankly we need storage just as much as we need EVs...if not more. We're going to have renewables at 20% of USA power fleet next year but storage is tiny. We need to be able to time shift, especially in CA where capacity exists.

Elon said on the last call that they have enough batteries from existing suppliers to get 2X the run rate of today. By then they believe the 4680 line will be running at a significant rate in both ATX and BER. Everyone else but TSLA must contend with both "chips" and batteries. Just relax and buy some more TSLA.

 

[ggies07]

What does a company do if everything they make flies off the shelves? Six month back log… which will probably grow in the fourth Q if seasonal patterns hold.

Model 2 will solve this problem. Hard to get to it until battery problem is solved. Almost there…

In the meantime bask in the glory of the highest profit margins in the industry.

Price doesn't matter if it's not in stock. Either prevents purchase.

I would draw your attention to The Master Plan, which is to speed the advent of EVs and sustainable renewable energy.

We're supply constrained forever on these models. They're selling used for near new prices. Optimal strategy from here to achieve Master Plan goals is to bring in more money that can be leveraged in cell production and Energy products. Or even at least threaten to build out Model 2 manufacturing at scale.

With subsidies in the mail, the net prices of these will also be at all time lows, by the time today's existing order sheet is delivered.

I know I know guys....just venting. Again, I have an EV, but my friends who have multiple kids and their bills do not. I'm tired of that look I get when I talk to them about it. I get "yeah, yeah, whenever the price comes down...."

 

[Mengy]

Tesla raising prices makes sense. There is just too much demand right now, the value proposition is too good and consumers are understanding this.

But Tesla is scaling rapidly, at 70%/year currently and probably gonna be around this rate for two more years at least. As they scale up production, at some point demand won’t scale equally fast and they will have to lower prices to scale up demand. People who want a cheaper Model Y will have to wait until everyone who are willing to pay more have gotten theirs or Tesla has scaled up production.

As an investor and TSLA shareholder I agree, given the current demand raising prices makes sense.

As a consumer hoping to buy my first Tesla next year, a Model Y LR, I am upset because the price of my next car keeps climbing higher and higher. At this point I'll likely just keep my current 2015 Subaru Crosstrek much longer than I intended until the prices of Tesla's fall again. I don't care how wealthy I am, as a frugal individual I do not like paying more for a product than I want to, and right now the price of a LR MY is more than I'd want to spend.

Thankfully I do love my little Crosstrek, and if my TSLA shares skyrocket quicker than I expect then frack it I'll pay whatever Tesla wants for a Model Y.

 

[Chocochip]

It's both. Within the same chemistry smaller cells can put out higher C rates and cylindrical can put out higher rates than pouch/prismatic. 4680 mitigates this over conventional cylindrical with the tabless design. An 18650 tabless could have even higher C rates.

Not saying that’s wrong, but can you explain how the cell form factor or size influences the max C-rate when discounting thermal effects?

 

[st_lopes]

Seriously!?! WTF happened to the affordable car? Prices better go down once the 4680 lines are up next year and into 2023. The "affordable" version (third Gen.) of their plan is slowly drifting away....

The average price of all cars is going up. Inflation, materials, supply and demand, yaddy yaddy. The entry point for an M3 still remains below the US average selling price. That would be the affordable benchmark for the US.

Naturally M2/Q will be needed as all of those variables stabilize and as we enter markets where the average ASP is lower.

 

[JRP3]

If they use a swiss cheese metal sheet like that but also fill all the voids between cells with adhesive then it would give the benefits of both. I think it could happen that way.

"The best part is no part"