Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

I doubt that news is really going to kick off a rally. Probably expect the "demand" care bears to come out in full force tomorrow.

But as we all know here.......whenever Tesla launches a lower trim model......it means a big increase in production is coming. If there is a substantial increase in production rates in Q3, I sure hope they just come out on the ER call and give guidance for it.

The whole "low ball guidance and beat expectations" hasn't worked at all. Wall St just sets higher expectations right before the quarterly P/D report and hammers the stock anyways.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Standard Range Model Y launched in China!

Is this what tesla analyst china (or whatever their name is) was referring to?

edit : yes

 

[Singuy]

I doubt that news is really going to kick off a rally. Probably expect the "demand" care bears to come out in full force tomorrow.

But as we all know here.......whenever Tesla launches a lower trim model......it means a big increase in production is coming. If there is a substantial increase in production rates in Q3, I sure hope they just come out on the ER call and give guidance for it.

The whole "low ball guidance and beat expectations" hasn't worked at all. Wall St just sets higher expectations right before the quarterly P/D report and hammers the stock anyways.

Have Shanghai ever made LR trim of Model 3?

I think before the 4680s come out, China will specialize making SR+ trims of all cars due to CATL's iron based batteries and Giga Nevada to support LR trim due to nickel based Panasonic cells.

 

[Linus_2]

In Beijing last week within one hour I saw twice 4 tesla in front of me, I see between 40-100 tesla every day. They are everywhere and density keeps increasing.
I also see more and more NIO, Xpeng and Li.
Chinese consumer are well educated, want safety for their family and like good software. (Nio and Xpeng have fairly good software UI for Chinese better than German car).
About FUD, we saw also some FUD in early days of Apple and Starbuck in china but Chinese consumers can see through and eventually the FUD disappears.

Refresh S/X will sell very well since back seat comfort is better (many people have drivers). Gaming may be a plus too.

FSD pure vision is like going for DOS to window (or phone with keys to smartphone). It may take 6 months to a year, but eventually everyone will agree that pure vision adds safety and reduce risk of accidents.

As far as share price, we just have to wait, a year from now sales (and profit) per share will be up to another level.

I just hope that 4680 will ramp up smoothly and will not give FUD sugar.

It would be good to have some video on battery truck loading activity on Kato road @gabeincal

Worried about the unknown future? No way since historically, Tesla reacts faster than competitors.
Thanks again to the Tesla team, you rock!

 

[buttershrimp]

Sooooo one of those stories that has big implications for bottom line in future but may not be the anti FUD buster we hoped. Personally I was hoping for a P&D revision in China… forgot to mention we made any delivered 30k more cars….

 

[JustMe]

In Beijing last week within one hour I saw twice 4 tesla in front of me, I see between 40-100 tesla every day. They are everywhere and density keeps increasing.
I also see more and more NIO, Xpeng and Li.
Chinese consumer are well educated, want safety for their family and like good software. (Nio and Xpeng have fairly good software UI for Chinese better than German car).
About FUD, we saw also some FUD in early days of Apple and Starbuck in china but Chinese consumers can see through and eventually the FUD disappears.

Refresh S/X will sell very well since back seat comfort is better (many people have drivers). Gaming may be a plus too.

FSD pure vision is like going for DOS to window (or phone with keys to smartphone). It may take 6 months to a year, but eventually everyone will agree that pure vision adds safety and reduce risk of accidents.

As far as share price, we just have to wait, a year from now sales (and profit) per share will be up to another level.

I just hope that 4680 will ramp up smoothly and will not give FUD sugar.

It would be good to have some video on battery truck loading activity on Kato road @gabeincal

Worried about the unknown future? No way since historically, Tesla reacts faster than competitors.
Thanks again to the Tesla team, you rock!

Thanks Linus_2, personal reports from locals like you are really valuable.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Is this what tesla analyst china (or whatever their name is) was referring to?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412974758518566915

 

[MC3OZ]

Lowering the cost of batteries a bit by using fewer electrolyte additives.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412451515411877889

 

[Blue horseshoe]

This ad popped up for me and I had to share it. Unrivaled electric performance! So misleading that they don't mention it has the WORST performance:

Attached chartView attachment 681636

Audi e-turd comes in dead last for range per kWh. Smh

 

[jbcarioca]

Decreasing market share?

how?

Tesla should grow at 75-80% this year the next two. Unless the weighted average of ALL other competitors exceeds that, Tesla will gain, not lose share.

The global Tesla market share will probably rise for the next few years but later will rise. Why? As many manufacturers launch more BEV’s and those become better, which will happen, Tesla will inevitably lose market share. Tesla share of BEV global profit will probably remain very high. While many OEMs will fail, those that remain will be much better producers than they are now.

That should not be controversial. It is quite analogous to the Apple progression since iPhone.
The question is really when the best of the others reaches high volumes. That is obviously open to debate. Given the regulatory environment in most of the largest markets the entire industry should see growth at very high levels during the next few years, leaving the question of ‘how high’? Will Tesla actually grow faster than all competitors combined? Will governments tolerate Tesla as the only viable competitor?

Even Tesla does not want to be the only one. Once all the factories currently under construction have been completed the rate of volume growth will decrease. Energy products will accelerate.

Just look at the current battery production facilities under construction in the world. Tesla should not end out as a nearly monopolistic producer. That would negate the Tesla mission.

 

[JustMe]

View attachment 682470
This ad popped up for me and I had to share it. Unrivaled electric performance! So misleading that they don't mention it has the WORST performance:



Audi e-turd comes in dead last for range per kWh. Smh

No other car uses more kWh per mile. Truly unrivaled performance

 

[Chunky Jr.]

people cancelling competitor orders for newly announced Model Y...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412986959153168385

 

[kengchang]

Have Shanghai ever made LR trim of Model 3?

I think before the 4680s come out, China will specialize making SR+ trims of all cars due to CATL's iron based batteries and Giga Nevada to support LR trim due to nickel based Panasonic cells.

Er yes, US hasn't supply Model 3 to China for a long time.

 

[mickificki]

Standard Range Model Y launched in China!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412968278562070529

Isn’t 525 km = 326 miles? For SR MY?

 

[JusRelax]

Isn’t 525 km = 326 miles? For SR MY?

I believe this is using the NEDC standard, not EPA

 

[gabeincal]

It would be good to have some video on battery truck loading activity on Kato road @gabeincal

Which brings me back to my earlier point. I don't think I see loading docks on the 47700 Kato Rd building. I'm flying probably tomorrow and will take an in-depth look at where those batteries could be leaving the building (and where raw materials in bulk are coming in)...

 

[Singuy]

Er yes, US hasn't supply Model 3 to China for a long time.

You may have misunderstood what I wrote.

 

[kengchang]

You may have misunderstood what I wrote.

Giga Shanghai makes LR 3/Y using locally sourced LG cell

 

[Chenkers]

Have Shanghai ever made LR trim of Model 3?

I think before the 4680s come out, China will specialize making SR+ trims of all cars due to CATL's iron based batteries and Giga Nevada to support LR trim due to nickel based Panasonic cells.

Yes China has made a LR M3 for some time. The 2170 batteries come from LG.

One of my business partners received his MIC LR M3 earlier this year. The build quality was perfect and he couldn't be happier with it.