Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drezil]

Reuters just now (in my IBKR-Feed):

TESLA<TSLA.O> - Berlin: Mehr als 350 Unternehmen haben sich
einem Medienbericht zufolge seit Ankündigung der Gigafactory in
Grünheide um einen Auftrag bei dem US-Autobauer bemüht. Rund 300
Unternehmen hätten sich bei der Wirtschaftsförderung Land
Brandenburg GmbH (WFBB) gemeldet mit Bitte um eine Vermittlung
zu Tesla, berichtet der Branchen-Newsletter "Auto Insider". "Wir
nehmen die Wünsche entgegen und reichen sie unkommentiert direkt
weiter an Tesla", sagt WFBB-Sprecher Alexander Gallrein dem
Newsletter. Zudem hätten sich 58 Firmen bei Industrie- und
Handelskammer Ostbrandenburg gemeldet und um Vermittlung zu
Tesla gebeten. Es handelt sich dabei um Firmen aus der Region,
aus ganz Deutschland und aus dem Ausland. Die meisten Firmen aus
dem Ausland hätten ihren Sitz in Polen, Österreich und Holland.

=> >350 companies applied to "work with Tesla". ~300 asked the state, 58 asked the communal authorities to guide them to contacts to tesla ..

I guess for various things (building, supply, logistics, etc. pp.). Tesla can basically just choose the best bidder
Even companies from other countries (e.g. Poland (cheap workforce), Austria & Netherlands)

 

[Curt Renz]

AP - this afternoon: Exxon: At least 2 board members lose seats in climate fight

Excerpt:

Exxon Mobil’s shareholders have voted to replace at least two of the company's 12 board members with directors who are seen as better suited to fight climate change, bolster Exxon’s finances and guide it through a transition to cleaner energy.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

It seems to me a MODErator may have to step in a MEDIANate this microthread.

*slow clap for the effort to be funny* .... Don't quit your day job Auddy! ... I'll see myself to the dunce corner now.

 

[The Accountant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395425309525258242

His next update should be public (on Twitter) today/tomorrow I believe.

I follow TroyTeslike closely and do like his effort. Except for this past Q1, his last estimate for the Qtr is usually pretty close.
However, I think it becomes difficult to try to estimate deliveries from a Demand perspective as Tesla increases the number of markets and number of models.
Estimating deliveries via Production estimates will be easier than with Demand.
Anyhow, here is the issue I have with Troy's current estimate for Q2:
1. Fremont is projected to be down 2.5% on Models 3&Y deliveries in Q2 vs Q1 and this is after they delivered an 8.8% increase in Q1.
2. Shanghai is projected at a 13.6% increase following Q1's increase of 19.4%

We have seen strong shipping data this quarter; production and logistics are running 21% ahead of Q1.
Tesla still needs to execute in the local US & China markets this quarter but Troy's overall increase for Model 3 & Y of only 4.4% is too low imho.

 

[Zero CO2]

Legacy auto "debt' is incredibly deceptive due to most having a captive finance arm.

Ford Motor Credit Is a Hidden Value Inside the Auto Maker

Separating financial statements for Ford’s automotive operations and the company’s auto finance operations isn’t easy, even for experienced analysts and investors. But it shows the hidden value in the company.

www.barrons.com

If you remove the financing stuff Ford has more cash than debt.

They're still worse off than tesla, certainly, but not NEARLY the dire situation your original #s imply.







That's...kinda what the word pure means?

You can always choose not to install the update as long as the vision-only restrictions are in place... (especially valuable for those who set AP speed above 75 for now)

only problem is the Ford Credit is an an boat anchor(that who in thier right mind would want, banks are a risky investment and could blow up at any moment ... see financial crisis 2008-09) and it is not separate entity ... this is like saying Ford would be a great company if they did not manufacture ICE vehicles ... problem is they do !!!

so the situation at F is pretty Dire ...

 

[Bunky]

I follow TroyTeslike closely and do like his effort. Except for this past Q1, his last estimate for the Qtr is usually pretty close.
However, I think it becomes difficult to try to estimate deliveries from a Demand perspective as Tesla increases the number of markets and number of models.
Estimating deliveries via Production estimates will be easier than with Demand.
Anyhow, here is the issue I have with Troy's current estimate for Q2:
1. Fremont is projected to be down 2.5% on Models 3&Y deliveries in Q2 vs Q1 and this is after they delivered an 8.8% increase in Q1.
2. Shanghai is projected at a 13.6% increase following Q1's increase of 19.4%

We have seen strong shipping data this quarter; production and logistics are running 21% ahead of Q1.
Tesla still needs to execute in the local US & China markets this quarter but Troy's overall increase for Model 3 & Y of only 4.4% is too low imho.

View attachment 666533

Thank you for sharing your thoughts/analysis. We are lucky to have you here

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Thank you for sharing your thoughts/analysis. We are lucky to have you here

I follow TroyTeslike closely and do like his effort. Except for this past Q1, his last estimate for the Qtr is usually pretty close.
However, I think it becomes difficult to try to estimate deliveries from a Demand perspective as Tesla increases the number of markets and number of models.
Estimating deliveries via Production estimates will be easier than with Demand.
Anyhow, here is the issue I have with Troy's current estimate for Q2:
1. Fremont is projected to be down 2.5% on Models 3&Y deliveries in Q2 vs Q1 and this is after they delivered an 8.8% increase in Q1.
2. Shanghai is projected at a 13.6% increase following Q1's increase of 19.4%

We have seen strong shipping data this quarter; production and logistics are running 21% ahead of Q1.
Tesla still needs to execute in the local US & China markets this quarter but Troy's overall increase for Model 3 & Y of only 4.4% is too low imho.

View attachment 666533

Having @The Accountant share and post his knowledge is better than any cheat code in video game history

 

[Drezil]

Someone said that 624 would be the bullish technical signal today if we would close above?

That may be in the cards. Closing-cross starting soon.. i expect a buy-side-imbalance due to closing of naked intraday-shorts..

620 just did a good protection (the ~20k shares (on the 2 exchanges i have LVL2 on) on the buy-side seemed to be too expensive for MM to breach through).. so i doubt that we close below that.

One thing i also just noticed: there were a lot of 700 call traded today (normally it is gaussian around the current SP, but 700 calls had a small spike in volume). But volume does not tell if those got opened or closed ..

Edit: WELP .. -.-
massive sell-side imbalance (~50k shares) & that was enough to force the SP lower

Edit 2: the imbalance just vanished .. someone seems to get cold feet before those orders have to be finally commited at :55 ...

 

[Unpilot]

Man I hate the last hour swoon

 

[st_lopes]

I follow TroyTeslike closely and do like his effort. Except for this past Q1, his last estimate for the Qtr is usually pretty close.
However, I think it becomes difficult to try to estimate deliveries from a Demand perspective as Tesla increases the number of markets and number of models.
Estimating deliveries via Production estimates will be easier than with Demand.
Anyhow, here is the issue I have with Troy's current estimate for Q2:
1. Fremont is projected to be down 2.5% on Models 3&Y deliveries in Q2 vs Q1 and this is after they delivered an 8.8% increase in Q1.
2. Shanghai is projected at a 13.6% increase following Q1's increase of 19.4%

We have seen strong shipping data this quarter; production and logistics are running 21% ahead of Q1.
Tesla still needs to execute in the local US & China markets this quarter but Troy's overall increase for Model 3 & Y of only 4.4% is too low imho.

View attachment 666533

The one that really nags me is that Troy has only 20k S/X for the entire year. We know that at scale the S/X line was reaching 25k/quarter prior the refresh. We know the order book for S/X is highest it has ever been. We know they upgraded the production lines (which should increase throughput going forward). We know there's a June 3 event for S deliveries, where I would wager the units delivered will be in multiple thousands.

But happy to have Troy put out lower estimates and maybe influence wall st lower. Sets Tesla up nicely for comfortable beats.

 

[StealthP3D]

Someone said that 624 would be the bullish technical signal today if we would close above?

That may be in the cards. Closing-cross starting soon.. i expect a buy-side-imbalance due to closing of naked intraday-shorts..

620 just did a good protection (the ~20k shares (on the 2 exchanges i have LVL2 on) on the buy-side seemed to be too expensive for MM to breach through).. so i doubt that we close below that.

One thing i also just noticed: there were a lot of 700 call traded today (normally it is gaussian around the current SP, but 700 calls had a small spike in volume). But volume does not tell if those got opened or closed ..

Edit: WELP .. -.-
massive sell-side imbalance (~50k shares) & that was enough to force the SP lower

$600, $640, it don't matter none too much. Let's hope we can base in the $600's before taking off on our way to quadruple digits.

 

[Artful Dodger]

i expect a buy-side-imbalance due to closing of naked intraday-shorts..

whereas I expect MMs and hedgies would only cover those naked shorts After-hrs

 

[Knightshade]

only problem is the Ford Credit is an an boat anchor(that who in thier right mind would want, banks are a risky investment and could blow up at any moment ... see financial crisis 2008-09) and it is not separate entity ... this is like saying Ford would be a great company if they did not manufacture ICE vehicles ... problem is they do !!!

so the situation at F is pretty Dire ...

I guess you didn't read the actual story?

Ford credit is consistently profitable (as most banks are)- contributing a couple billion dollars of EBIT annually. It carries debt because of the way auto financing works, but is hardly a "boat anchor"

There's a lot to criticize at Ford, especially regarding how slow they've been not just to make EVs, but to realize hey maybe a battery supply matters...

But they've been pretty solid on their financials, being along with Tesla the only US auto company NOT to go bankrupt during that financial crisis you mention.

 

[Unpilot]

You might want to try it sometime, Porky Sir. Your Milkbone just called, it wants its box back.

View attachment 666532

Nice try but this is more like it.

Just like the SP...run baby run!

 

[mblakele]

Infighting = bullish

 

[JustSaying]

"Utterly bizarre" is the German auto industry with their Dieselgate scandal. I'm still trying to figure out if it was greed that made them do it, or just stupidity? Or does greed make you stupid? Or is it the other way around? The older I get, the less I understand human behavior...

Our 2016 Mercedes Sprinter van just got back from the dealership for the second time in two weeks because of Dieselgate. The first week they did the "software update" (haha, slick marketing trick there) and other parts as required by the lawsuit. Not 20 miles down the road the "Check Engine" light comes on. Turns out a fuel injector went bad (but covered under the extended warranty that comes with the "update" as per the lawsuit). So back we go again. (Replacing one injector would cost us roughly $2000 if we had to pay for it ourselves; we called another dealership in the Phoenix area and checked just for fun).

As we were heading out the door for the second time, the service manager cheerily says, "Don't forget to apply for the rebate for the emissions update." I paused and looked at him, partly annoyed, partly baffled. "You mean, the class action settlement funds we're obligated to receive because Mercedes broke the law?" His response was a vacant face.

I wish I had the wit to come back with, "Yeah, that $3500 "rebate" is going towards the purchase of Tesla shares." Which is true. We've decided, as a symbolic act, to put the settlement funds into TSLA shares, haha.

Dieselgate has revealed profound stupidity on the part of the German auto industry. And this will continue to cost them more money down the road as they will have to fix for free more issues on these aging vehicles because of the extended warranty mandated by the lawsuit, which is very extensive (at least here in the U.S.). We will dump this van in a heartbeat as soon as a suitable electric replacement comes to market. But in the meantime we need the van to live out of when we're on assignment, so we can't get rid of it.

The Audi TDI settlement warranty is 10 years or 120,000 miles and is pretty extensive (Including free AdBlue (Urea) if needed between scheduled maintenance).
Please don't ask how I know...

 

[Artful Dodger]

The one that really nags me is that Troy has only 20k S/X for the entire year. We know that at scale the S/X line was reaching 25k/quarter prior the refresh. We know the order book for S/X is highest it has ever been. We know they upgraded the production lines (which should increase throughput going forward). We know there's a June 3 event for S deliveries, where I would wager the units delivered will be in multiple thousands.

But happy to have Troy put out lower estimates and maybe influence wall st lower. Sets Tesla up nicely for comfortable beats.

Yes, Troy's approach to estimation is a mess. He claimed on this Forum he estimates demand, then sales from that. This is completely and demonstrably false. Tesla is supply constrained, full stop. We, no one, knows the ultimate demand for Tesla vehicles, but we DO know we're not there yet. Not even close, not likely close in this decade.

Next, wrt the Model S, I commented about a month ago that Tesla has already demonstated a surge production capacity equivalent to 40K/quarter. Again, estimating 2021 S/X production from some sketchy estimate of YTD production is foolish. Tesla is BATTERY cell limited. Tesla has 100K battery cells under contract for delivery from Japan. Those 18650 cells will ALL be built into packs and sold as vehicles. That's the LIMITING FACTOR, not final assembly. PARTS ON ORDER is key.

Finally, I find it distasteful that somebody should attempt to profit personally from selling advance access to this steaming story through Patreon. Troy's problem is he does not follow a rigorous methodology to produce his estimates. Its too often affected by 'news' which is often supplied/planted by motivated operatives. Where are the error of estimate statistics? Oh, we don't talk about that...

Its garbage in, garbage out.

 

[DarkandStormy]

The one that really nags me is that Troy has only 20k S/X for the entire year. We know that at scale the S/X line was reaching 25k/quarter prior the refresh. We know the order book for S/X is highest it has ever been. We know they upgraded the production lines (which should increase throughput going forward). We know there's a June 3 event for S deliveries, where I would wager the units delivered will be in multiple thousands.

But happy to have Troy put out lower estimates and maybe influence wall st lower. Sets Tesla up nicely for comfortable beats.

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/1LRLZK_2020_Q4_Quarterly_Update_Deck_-_Searchable_LVA2GL.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22TSLA-Q4-2020-Update.pdf%22

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/O7WXQA_TSLA_Update_Letter_2019-4Q_BPWOH4.pdf

Tesla did <60k of S&X in 2020 and ~67k in 2019. Their last quarter of S&X deliveries >20k was Q4 2018.

Given the slow nature of their ramps + new(ish) product + X delivery dates are, what, October-November at the earliest (?) I think it's fairly reasonable to the conservative side.

 

[EVMeister]

Tesla has passed 200k Powerwall installations globally.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397651493755498499

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/1LRLZK_2020_Q4_Quarterly_Update_Deck_-_Searchable_LVA2GL.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22TSLA-Q4-2020-Update.pdf%22

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/O7WXQA_TSLA_Update_Letter_2019-4Q_BPWOH4.pdf

Tesla did <60k of S&X in 2020 and ~67k in 2019. Their last quarter of S&X deliveries >20k was Q4 2018.

Given the slow nature of their ramps + new(ish) product + X delivery dates are, what, October-November at the earliest (?) I think it's fairly reasonable to the conservative side.

Lol is this a joke post???? Someone’s about to go on ignore for being a blatant care bear.

if you think Tesla can only get 20,000 S/X’s over the next 7 months then please short the stock. That’s the type of misinformation I’d expect out of FUD.