Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

from what I've read there's quite a few people who would prefer the Taycan for build quality and driving dynamics (e.g. Marques Brownlee). But I've never driven a Taycan so I can't compare first hand.

I’m hardly an expert but without having driven the Taycan I’m still positive that it drives more like a sports car than the S. The performance 3 should be more comparable but they aren’t really in the same class.

The current S doesn’t feel sporty to me. I expect the plaid will more than match the Taycan.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I don't really get Smeagol at all but that's not really relevant, the real question i have is who the hell are his investors and just how does he convince them to let him keep losing their money year after year?

Obviously his only investors left are the dead ones.

 

[bro1999]

Someone give a good options play for TSLA this morning. I have $400 to gamb--er invest. Looking at 29 Jan $1,000c because it's a nice round number and decent open interest. If the pre-market dip lasts through open, that play should be down to $400 or possibly less.

 

[jbcarioca]

I’m hardly an expert but without having driven the Taycan I’m still positive that it drives more like a sports car than the S. The performance 3 should be more comparable but they aren’t really in the same class.

The current S doesn’t feel sporty to me. I expect the plaid will more than match the Taycan.

The Taycan drives just as a Porsche does. It does NOT act like a BEV because one must use the brake for regenerative, for example. The Tesla P3D drives in a uniquely different way. As a former multi-Porsche owner I obviously like Porsche (BTW a 996 was superb in heavy snow but nearly nobody believed it. (on a chains or 4WD only drive in Utah the Park City Police was unbelieving but the Nokkians made him relent). In my opinion the Taycan is a really good BEV. I prefer Tesla but the Taycan is the first one that made me think.

On the other hand I do have a Peugeot e208GT on order so what do I know? (I was not ready to shell out >US$200,000 for a Taycan here in Rio de Janeiro).

 

[T@oo]

Twitterpost about VW / Tesla EBIT and profit per Verhicle.

 

[H Mak]

Twitterpost about VW / Tesla EBIT and profit per Verhicle.

You beat me to it. This is well worth a read and includes the following compelling graph which shows with unerring clarity why Tesla is the killer company. Despite a fraction of the sales. Tesla's EBIT is higher than VW. It's a fantastic chart.

Alex retweeted it from @ceo_plus_ch

 

[mongo]

This is getting annoying. S&P based funds NEVER have to own a fixed number of shares: the own (or compare their holdings to) a WEIGHT which is a percentage fraction of their total capital.

Yes, but if there are funds that claim to track the S&P that do not have a TSLA position yet, then there is a reasonable expectation that they will be acquiring more (or any) shares.

On Dec 31, 2020, TSLA's weight in the S&P 500 index was 1.690187% so if an index fund had $100 B in assets under managment, they'd want about $1.69B worth of TSLA (NOT a fixed number of shares).

The number of shares they buy or sell would be determined by the Closing SP. Do the math.

Yah, share price did matter at initial adoption to convert $ to position size. Once at the correct weight, the fund does not need to do anything due to share price changes (no active balancing needed). They only change share count if the IWF (float adjustment), total shares outstanding (total market cap change), or their funds under management changes (size of their pie).

But here's the point: it's absolute NONSENSE to imagine ANY scheme where the S&P Committee could tell an individual fund how many shares to buy. The Committee does NOT know how much capital any particular fund manages on a day-to-day basis. Look at how fast ARK Invest is attracting capital. You think they make daily reports to S&P DJI?

Bah! /rant

True, but isn't it reasonable that tracking funds will eventually add a TSLA position to their portfolio? So @Oil4AsphaultOnly's "needed" was not accurate, but there is a shortfall currently that they may want to remedy in the future.

 

[jhm]

66.7% pure electric cars registered in Norway in December. And Tesla topped the list with the Model 3.

Pure fossils was 7.5% which leaves 25.8% for the hybrids.

View attachment 624425
Source and complete list: Registreringsstatistikken | Opplysningsrådet for veitrafikken

For the whole year of 2020 pure electrics are at 54%, hybrids at 29% and fossils at 17%. The Audi e-tron was the most sold car of 2020 with 9,227 registered.

According to CleanTechnica 30,181 e-trons and 63,086 were sold in Europe in the first 11 months of 2020. In Norway in this 11 month period 8,773 e-trons and 3,538 Model 3s were sold.

Which means that Audi sells 29.1% and Tesla 5.6% of their total European sales in Norway in this 11 month period.

Source: Record Electric Vehicle Sales In Europe!

It's looks like BEVs could be gaining so much share that HEVs will tend to lose share along with ICEVs. This should raise questions about PHEVs as a transitional strategy for automakers. When BEVs dominate (more than 50% market share), anything with an ICE in it will lose ground.

 

[dgodfrey]

Since inception on June 1, 2011 the fund is up 36.1% net while the S&P 500 is up 240.4%

What a winner!

My checking account gets a better return than his investments.
But to stay on course, listening to analysts and the haters trying to discredit Tesla and TSLA feels like debating a flat earther sometimes.
Just looking at TA (Tesla Automotive), how many of the top 20 legacies do pick-up trucks?
Big three and a few Japanese.
Of those, how many have a Semi coming soon?
None that I'm aware.
How many have plans for a $25,000 BEV with full autonomy?
None that I'm aware.
How many will have a Halo car that will be unmatched by any legal car, ICEV or BEV
None
Could probably come up with a few more but the point is, TA will own the majority of the Automotive market in 10 years. Of that I am certain.

But TE is their money maker. Pushing tin will be peanuts comparatively. The Software and Autonomy will provide Apple-like margins.
The licensing of battery tech alone could match the current carbon credits.
They have such a myopic understanding of what this juggernaut is capable of.
About as short sighted as the non-Tesla owners claiming the Supercharger Network is a dead end and already behind the public fast charging network.
Sigh.

 

[winfield100]

I grok in fullness.

whatta time warp that was...........

 

[dgodfrey]

The Taycan drives just as a Porsche does. It does NOT act like a BEV because one must use the brake for regenerative, for example. The Tesla P3D drives in a uniquely different way. As a former multi-Porsche owner I obviously like Porsche (BTW a 996 was superb in heavy snow but nearly nobody believed it. (on a chains or 4WD only drive in Utah the Park City Police was unbelieving but the Nokkians made him relent). In my opinion the Taycan is a really good BEV. I prefer Tesla but the Taycan is the first one that made me think.

On the other hand I do have a Peugeot e208GT on order so what do I know? (I was not ready to shell out >US$200,000 for a Taycan here in Rio de Janeiro).

I hear a similar sentiment from those that have or currently still do own Porsche's and a Tesla. I've never owned a Porsche but it appears that when it comes to handling, driving dynamics, and feedback, they currently are the benchmark. I do believe Tesla will be just as good at some point but the overall driveability and what they chose as their daily driver? P3D everytime. Tesla has the best balance of performance, comfort, cost, value, and efficiency. The subtle trade-off in handling characteristics only the 1% can appreciate and only on a closed course seems to be worthwhile looking at the sales numbers.
Snuck this in just before market opens.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here is today's TSLA Tech chart as of 09:30 EST:

(Note: Upper-BB at Market Opening was $726.72)

Comment: "And SURPRISE! TSLA Opens at the Upper-BB. It's bloddy Majik!"

EDIT: ... or rather, it's "legerdemand"

Cheers!

 

[bro1999]

Ok, rolled the dice with a 1/29 $1,000c play. It dropped to $380 when I snagged it. Let's goooo!

 

[SOULPEDL]

It's looks like BEVs could be gaining so much share that HEVs will tend to lose share along with ICEVs. This should raise questions about PHEVs as a transitional strategy for automakers. When BEVs dominate (more than 50% market share), anything with an ICE in it will lose ground.

As I used to do all my own auto repairs (emphasising "used to" as I'm 100% BEV now), from the very 1st day that I saw a technical drawing for an HEV (like below), I could not imagine the maintenance needed down the road having both technologies in one car. It goes to show how folks don't understand true cost of ownership. I used to laugh at how my mom would simply chose a car bc of the color. She was not alone it seems. And wasn't it Norway where you can't sell an HEV as there are very few buyers (don't quote me on this)? This is going to happen everywhere, and quickly IMO.

 

[SOULPEDL]

What a strange opening... like equal opposites TSLA vs S&P.
I saw this (EDIT: the opposite, they are reversed today.) yesterday thinking folks are moving S&P funds over to TSLA. I wouldn't be surprised if it's coming from ICE auto industry stocks directly.

 

[Runarbt]

Weird zigzag SP action today - almost like someone want to keep it from jumping into the green.. but that cant be?

 

[Spacep0d]

Report fra Norway; Many larger gas stations are building EV charging stations, and since before EVs where becoming a thing are making most their money anyway as expensive mini-marts with overpriced cofee, a small selection of groceries, bakery, fast food (Think Seven-Eleven) and extended opening hours.

This is exactly what I would expect and it's a great idea. Become a convenience center that offers charging instead of gas, rather than a gas station which offers a convenience store. I think this will keep happening as the demand for gas plummets. I believe that plummet will happen exponentially, commensurate with expected EV production, increasing affordability, growing demand and pent-up demand as well.

 

[Lessmog]

Thanks. I think that position will change and Tesla will ship Y along with 3 to Europe until such time GB is up and running.. just my guess

You could be right concerning MY LHD to GB from CN, now that UK is no longer in EU.
If you follow all those acrobats or whatev's.

 

[Singuy]

720 support is strong today. Once that break we know next support is 695. Hopefully it doesn't break but whatever if it does. Tesla will probably be range bound between 695 and 740 until earnings.

 

[Maarten]

This is getting annoying. S&P based funds NEVER have to own a fixed number of shares: the own (or compare their holdings to) a WEIGHT which is a percentage fraction of their total capital.

On Dec 31, 2020, TSLA's weight in the S&P 500 index was 1.690187% so if an index fund had $100 B in assets under managment, they'd want about $1.69B worth of TSLA (NOT a fixed number of shares).

The number of shares they buy or sell would be determined by the Closing SP. Do the math.

But here's the point: it's absolute NONSENSE to imagine ANY scheme where the S&P Committee could tell an individual fund how many shares to buy. The Committee does NOT know how much capital any particular fund manages on a day-to-day basis. Look at how fast ARK Invest is attracting capital. You think they make daily reports to S&P DJI?

Bah! /rant

Careful with that blood pressure...