Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Pfft! Incoming zen; don’t talk to yourself like that. Instead view your good fortune as well deserved because it is!

You worked hard and then you took the fruits of that labor and reinvested in property (that’s solid), in a company trying to do the right thing (positive) and in yourself (like we’re all supposed to).

Go ahead and feel good about how it’s all turned out. Pay it forward to other people if you want, but don’t be surprised that in doing so you are enriched further.

That’s how it works, what you put out into The Universe, The Consciousness, The World, The Simulation, The Whatever will be returned to you ten fold. I’m a bloody saint at this point.

Ahem...what you say may be true....however the lack of invitations to Island/mountains...the scoffing at plans for a beer party at same...indicate perhaps you have not taken your own advice.

 

[bkp_duke]

No one thinks TSLA is going to drop/crash given the incredible performance lately?

Nope.

 

[OrthoSurg]

No one thinks TSLA is going to drop/crash given the incredible performance lately?

Gary Black is expecting a 10-15% pullback after inclusion from speculators sell off.
I might be selling my useless ETFs to buy more if it dips.

 

[FireMedic]

No one thinks TSLA is going to drop/crash given the incredible performance lately?

Who knows what will happen short term? But I wouldn’t bet against Elon and TSLA, many have tried and failed.

Invest wisely and I believe you will be richly rewarded. I have 2 Teslas in the garage, Tesla solar panels on my roof and 4 powerwalls in the basement. Those things enrich my investment thesis.

Worst case, your returns are muted, but you invested in the well being and the future of our planet.

 

[SeaNile]

Gary Black is expecting a 10-15% pullback after inclusion from speculators sell off.
I might be selling my useless ETFs to buy more if it dips.

Kind of my uneducated thought on this as well. There will definitely be dips along the way but I can't imagine anyone betting against long term growth. And my long term I mean even 6 months. The future is wide open.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Dec 08, 2020: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "Market Tosses $5B Coin to the Witcher"

Traded: $41,183,988,193.65 ($41.18B)
Volume: 64,715,440
VWAP: $636.39

Close: $649.88 / VWAP: 102.24%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $590 (+$30)

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $616.02B / $194.097B = 317.38%
Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap for shares issued Sep 9th (per 10-Q)
​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $489.14B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $354.33B

Mkt Cap req'd for 6th tranche ($350B) reached Mon, Dec 07, 2020
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche. Paging @The Accountant
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 48.1% (47th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 37.9% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume ratio was 0.49% of Short Volume (46th Percentile Rank)​

QOTD: @dl003 "I like my Management opportunistic and vengeful"

Comment: "Market shrugs off $5B Cap Raise; gets right back to buying"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[madodel]

My wife bought a Toyota Camry not too long ago. (I begged her to get a Tesla, but she's not comfortable with the electric thing yet. I've tried divorcing her for these reasons but it's harder than it sounds. Anyway, I digress)...

She wanted to sell some of our TSLA to buy the car. Turns out Toyota had 0% financing so we obviously didn't do that. TSLA was around $260 at that time. Had we done that, the car would have cost us almost a quarter million dollars. That's an expensive Camry.

Edit: At least it was a hybrid with "low speed EV mode". (BTW, it's in EV mode for about 5 seconds before the engine kicks in. Yuck.)

I had a Toyota Highlander Hybrid before I got my X. It had an EV button but not once in 8 years could I drive on EV unless I was going downhill or high speed coasting. It was a good car but it was nothing near my X. But then I don't think anything other than a new X would be. I understand the dilemma since my wife will have to eventually replace her Lexus and despite the fact that my TSLA investment has made enough to buy a fleet of new Teslas she isn't interested in a BEV, but said she'd get a hybrid. I had hoped the fact that both of her partners drive Teslas it would change her mind but not so far.

 

[Curt Renz]

Cramer regarding young investors: We have to understand them - you know why - one word - Tesla.

CNBC - 2 hours ago:

 

[ClownMouth]

Did the WSJ interviewer just cut off the interview at the end there? Hard time stop on his end? Maybe I should have more details on whether they attempted to book Elon during a longer window & were unsuccessful but he seemed like he was in a decent mood and was giving thoughtful/forthright answers. Hate to see that cut short. Oh well, they probably had a better interview up next. Some CEO super excited about 5G or last mile food delivery perhaps.

 

[heltok]

Couldn’t find it posted here, WSJ link not working for me, so here is youtube:

 

[LN1_Casey]

I had a Toyota Highlander Hybrid before I got my X. It had an EV button but not once in 8 years could I drive on EV unless I was going downhill or high speed coasting. It was a good car but it was nothing near my X. But then I don't think anything other than a new X would be. I understand the dilemma since my wife will have to eventually replace her Lexus and despite the fact that my TSLA investment has made enough to buy a fleet of new Teslas she isn't interested in a BEV, but said she'd get a hybrid. I had hoped the fact that both of her partners drive Teslas it would change her mind but not so far.

Maybe get her a Y, and just tell her it's a hybrid? That you filled it up when you picked it up from the lot, then just continually plug it in every night and hope she never thinks about the gas side, haha.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

CNBC - 2 hours ago:

This is not directed at you Curt or the substance of what you're posting.......But I'm so tired of the narrative being pushed that Tesla(and some of the other stocks he calls out) is being driven higher by young investors, or just retail investors at all. The total money being used by retail investors is a tiny....tiny drop in the bucket when compared to institutional investors, banks, and hedge funds. There's really no comparison. Yet I keep seeing this narrative painted and it's gotten incredibly tiresome.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I had a Toyota Highlander Hybrid before I got my X. It had an EV button but not once in 8 years could I drive on EV unless I was going downhill or high speed coasting. It was a good car but it was nothing near my X. But then I don't think anything other than a new X would be. I understand the dilemma since my wife will have to eventually replace her Lexus and despite the fact that my TSLA investment has made enough to buy a fleet of new Teslas she isn't interested in a BEV, but said she'd get a hybrid. I had hoped the fact that both of her partners drive Teslas it would change her mind but not so far.

Why? Is it just because everyone around her has a Tesla or is there something she doesn't like about BEVs?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gary Black is expecting a 10-15% pullback after inclusion from speculators sell off.
I might be selling my useless ETFs to buy more if it dips.

I really don't understand Gary's thinking sometimes and he has been wrong many times.

Take this tweet by him: Gary Black on Twitter: "No one knows what the $TSLA supply / demand dynamics will be next week. We know indexers need to buy 120M shares. We have no idea how much of 760M float will be presented by sellers to meet that demand. We know TSLA up 59% since 11/16, which is a lot more than 16% float needed." / Twitter

Why is he comparing the share gain percentage to the 16% float needed to be bought by index funds. Those two numbers have no relation. The more important factor would be the volume since S&P announced inclusion and how much of the buying volume, in terms of how many shares have been bought over the past 3 weeks with the intent to sell on inclusion date, verses the shares needed to be bough by index funds next week. That's the equation that will determine where Tesla ends up on next Friday.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tesla Plans Stock Sale, Closing Year of Soaring Gains

I find this statement hilarious:

Tesla is planning to start work on a new U.S. factory in Austin, Texas...

We’re on day 139! Have they not seen the many drone videos on YouTube?

Mr. and Mrs. General Public have no clue as to what Tesla is all about and where Tesla is going. They rely on Mass Media which is just dreadful. Not to be outdone by @Krugerrand I asked by 83 year old Mom to undertake a reconnaissance mission. She knows I drive a Tesla however has no idea I own shares in the company and I have never spoken of such. I simply asked her the send me an email every time she hears something about Tesla on the radio or TV or from friends or whereever/whomever. She is to tell me what the just of the message was and whether it was said in a positive or negative light. I received my first coded message at 1:21pm this afternoon:

"This is what I just heard on business news...and what I remember...
Shares down1&1/2 %. Although they are still up 650 % ( whatever that means) They are looking to raise 5 billion dollars RE shares....did not get that all...
They are planning to build a New place in Germany but plans have been put on hold as the place where the plant would be, would mean clearing a large Forest area and that would endanger snakes! That is what they said!"

Keep it up Mom, down there in the trenches. I love ya!

You may rate this post funny, but it is not. No wonder Mr. and Mrs. General Public are so misinformed about Tesla. My colleagues, family and friends have absolutely no idea. None. You can't blame them.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

FINRA Short / Total Volume = 37.9% (44th Percentile rank Shorting​

I went back and looked at a couple of your recent past reports. This number was in the high 50s% just a few reports back. Doesn’t that suggest that much of the past 5 day gains are short covering? Thanks for these reports. I’m still trying to understand all of the great information presented.​

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ahem...what you say may be true....however the lack of invitations to Island/mountains...the scoffing at plans for a beer party at same...indicate perhaps you have not taken your own advice.

Yeah, my friend Jeff owns part of an island, just 10% I think. He inherited from his grandfather, who got the land title in about, oh, 1898 or so. I think it's called Hawaii.

He owns the lush, green part. I think they grow some papayas there.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I went back and looked at a couple of your recent past reports. This number was in the high 50s% just a few reports back. Doesn’t that suggest that much of the past 5 day gains are short covering? Thanks for these reports. I’m still trying to understand all of the great information presented.​

No, these are daily volume numbers (and mostly from retail clients of FINRA-reporting brokers). Over half of NASDAQ volume is NOT reported through FINRA, and those are the biggest Hedge funds and Investments Banks.

Further, the daily numbers are sales only. A short could sell 1K at 650, then buy 1K 2 min later at $648 but you'd never see the net flow of shorts.

What these numbers DO tell us, I think, is that retail shorts have left the building, and only big MMs/hedges are still in the game, often with the sole purpose of protecting their Options exposure on Fridays.

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

Ahem...what you say may be true....however the lack of invitations to Island/mountains...the scoffing at plans for a beer party at same...indicate perhaps you have not taken your own advice.

It’s working perfectly. I put out people are not welcome, I don’t invite and voila, peace and quiet.

 

[FrankSG]

I really don't understand Gary's thinking sometimes and he has been wrong many times.

Take this tweet by him: Gary Black on Twitter: "No one knows what the $TSLA supply / demand dynamics will be next week. We know indexers need to buy 120M shares. We have no idea how much of 760M float will be presented by sellers to meet that demand. We know TSLA up 59% since 11/16, which is a lot more than 16% float needed." / Twitter

Why is he comparing the share gain percentage to the 16% float needed to be bought by index funds. Those two numbers have no relation. The more important factor would be the volume since S&P announced inclusion and how much of the buying volume, in terms of how many shares have been bought over the past 3 weeks with the intent to sell on inclusion date, verses the shares needed to be bough by index funds next week. That's the equation that will determine where Tesla ends up on next Friday.

Yeah, I've unfollowed and pretty much ignore Gary because of a number of tweets like this. I know he's supposed to be some big CIO, but some of his tweets sound like they're coming from a novice retail investor, not even a knowledgeable retail investor.