Tesla Says Model 3 Will Be On Sale 2017 Alongside Chevy Bolt

[Matias]

It's interesting to see people proclaiming with certainty that a Model 3, a car they've never seen, we'll be vastly superior to a Bolt EV, a car they've never driven.

+1

So many people "know", that Model 3 is superior to Bolt. Apparantly they either have a time machine or direct access to Tesla's secret files.

 

[rEVhappy]

It's not 100% certain either that the next generation BMW 3-Series or Mercedes C-Class will be vastly superior to a Honda Fit. Anyone want to bet on this?

Lol.. I've been hammering this point into a few of my friend this past week. If Tesla does the conservative thing and makes the Model 3 a shrunken Model S, it would be laughable to compare a Chevy Sonic in drag to a compact sports sedan that competes with a 3 Series.. Not all EV's are created equal!

 

[Draighven]

One thing to remember is that Tesla absolutely can not shrink the Model S into a 35K car. You don't get soft leather seats, felt/leather lined interior, a 17" touch screen, an all aluminum body, and super car performance for 35K. It absolutely will not happen. The materials used to make a 35K Tesla will be very similar to the materials used to make a 37K Bolt, soft plastic/cloth interior, cloth/hard leather seats, smaller touch screen, mostly steel frame and better than average performance should be expected. The features will be similar and I'm willing to bet that passenger volume will be significantly smaller than the Bolt, but as it will be in a sedan style form factor performance will be better and I'm willing to give Tesla the edge on range. There will be much less margin on these cars and so I don't think Tesla will be able to build in features to activate later, so don't expect to suddenly get auto pilot activated in an OTA update, they won't be able to include sensors for auto pilot on every car like the Model S to keep the base cost down, so expect to have to either foot the bill up front or install them later for even more cost. I think those who are expecting to get a slightly smaller Model S for 35K will have a rude awakening when they sit in the Model 3.

 

[Chris TX]

One thing to remember is that Tesla absolutely can not shrink the Model S into a 35K car. You don't get soft leather seats, felt/leather lined interior, a 17" touch screen, an all aluminum body, and super car performance for 35K. It absolutely will not happen. The materials used to make a 35K Tesla will be very similar to the materials used to make a 37K Bolt, soft plastic/cloth interior, cloth/hard leather seats, smaller touch screen, mostly steel frame and better than average performance should be expected. The features will be similar and I'm willing to bet that passenger volume will be significantly smaller than the Bolt, but as it will be in a sedan style form factor performance will be better and I'm willing to give Tesla the edge on range. There will be much less margin on these cars and so I don't think Tesla will be able to build in features to activate later, so don't expect to suddenly get auto pilot activated in an OTA update, they won't be able to include sensors for auto pilot on every car like the Model S to keep the base cost down, so expect to have to either foot the bill up front or install them later for even more cost. I think those who are expecting to get a slightly smaller Model S for 35K will have a rude awakening when they sit in the Model 3.

You're forgetting the margins that GM has to pay LG for all that Bolt tech. Tesla makes their own "expensive" stuff when the Gigagactory starts pumping out battery packs.

With the Bolt you have LG, GM, and the franchised dealership network making money off the Bolt and passing that onto the customer.
With the 3, the bulk of it is just Tesla Motors. Maybe it is an unfair advantage

 

[McHoffa]

If the Model S battery costs $238/kWH (putting it at about $21k for the 85) and the target I've read is $150/kWH, that puts them at $9000 for a 60kWH battery. That means we can still get a nice car wrapped around that battery pack to make up the difference. Not Model S nice, but not Chevy Bolt either.

Also, I'm hoping that $150/kWH means they increase the pack size across the MS line rather than dropping any prices. 130+kWH would cost the same as a 85kWH pack costs them now. If they could fit 130kWH into a Model S, that would be pretty amazing range, almost double a 70.

 

[bigbear]

If the Model S battery costs $238/kWH (putting it at about $21k for the 85) and the target I've read is $150/kWH, that puts them at $9000 for a 60kWH battery. That means we can still get a nice car wrapped around that battery pack to make up the difference. Not Model S nice, but not Chevy Bolt either.

Also, I'm hoping that $150/kWH means they increase the pack size across the MS line rather than dropping any prices. 130+kWH would cost the same as a 85kWH pack costs them now. If they could fit 130kWH into a Model S, that would be pretty amazing range, almost double a 70.

What's the battery costing GM for the bolt?

 

[McHoffa]

Not sure we know that yet. It's 60kWH, but I can't imagine they were able to get a much better deal than Tesla has. so let's guess it's $230/kWH, that puts it at $13,800. If Tesla's will only cost $9000, that gives them almost $5k more toward the quality of the car itself. That's probably why the Bolt is basically a Sonic EV, but costs more than twice as much as a Sonic.

 

[electracity]

One thing to remember is that Tesla absolutely can not shrink the Model S into a 35K car. .......

Exactly. If the $35K M3 is truly the equivalent of the entry BMW 3 series, it will destroy the Bolt in sales. Even though the base 320i is a "blah" car. Who wouldn't prefer a 3 series to a chevy econobox?

But I doubt Tesla can produce that car at a small profit in 2018. The M3 probably has to be a tiny car like the Bolt. The 3 series are in no way a tiny car. The 3 series is also a pretty good car for tall drivers. The Model 3 will likely just barely fit Musk, like the Model S.

I expect the Model 3 to be a good looking, small car that enters full production in 2019. The better the Model 3 seems at intro next month, likely the longer the lead time to full production. If the Model 3 introduced is more compromised than many expect, I expect production sooner.

The Model 3 has to be produced at a profit. There is no gigafactory yet.

What I would do is introduce a $45K-$50K Model 3 60D, and state that it will be followed later with a single drive base car at $35K when the gigafactory is in "full production". That would put the average M3 price above $50K until 2020. I assume Tesla can make money at these prices.

There would be a week of criticism about "Musk lying about a $35K car", but it wouldn't hurt long term, I think.

- - - Updated - - -

Not sure we know that yet. It's 60kWH, but I can't imagine they were able to get a much better deal than Tesla has. so let's guess it's $230/kWH, that puts it at $13,800. If Tesla's will only cost $9000, that gives them almost $5k more toward the quality of the car itself. That's probably why the Bolt is basically a Sonic EV, but costs more than twice as much as a Sonic.

The Bolt interior is reported almost two classes larger compared to the Sonic. For most of the world, the Bolt interior is good family car size. That is a big deal.

 

[McHoffa]

Exactly. If the $35K M3 is truly the equivalent of the entry BMW 3 series, it will destroy the Bolt in sales. Even though the base 320i is a "blah" car. Who wouldn't prefer a 3 series to a chevy econobox?

But I doubt Tesla can produce that car at a small profit in 2018. The M3 probably has to be a tiny car like the Bolt. The 3 series are in no way a tiny car. The 3 series is also a pretty good car for tall drivers. The Model 3 will likely just barely fit Musk, like the Model S.

I expect the Model 3 to be a good looking, small car that enters full production in 2019. The better the Model 3 seems at intro next month, likely the longer the lead time to full production. If the Model 3 introduced is more compromised than many expected, I expect production sooner.

The Model 3 has to be produced at a profit. There is no gigafactory yet.

What I would do is introduce a $45K-$50K Model 3 60D, and state that it will be followed later with a single drive base car at $35K when the gigafactory is in "full production". That would put the average M3 price above $50K until 2020. I assume Tesla can make money at these prices.

There would be a week of criticism about "Musk lying about a $35K car", but it wouldn't hurt long term, I think.

I thought Musk said something about it being similar to a 3 series, but maybe it was an assumption based on something else he said. He has also said repeatedly that it will be in production in 2017, even very recently. Still possible that they will do a sig series or something and the $35k model won't be available at launch, but I doubt that, as the whole point of the M3 is that it's affordable. They've been saying that $35k number all along.

The first few people that take delivery will be the lucky ones, as they will still qualify for the rebate up until they hit the 200,000 total if they haven't already by then.

 

[mfennell]

Not sure we know that yet. It's 60kWH, but I can't imagine they were able to get a much better deal than Tesla has. so let's guess it's $230/kWH, that puts it at $13,800. If Tesla's will only cost $9000, that gives them almost $5k more toward the quality of the car itself. That's probably why the Bolt is basically a Sonic EV, but costs more than twice as much as a Sonic.

GM pays LG $145/kWH for Bolt cells.

 

[McHoffa]

GM pays LG $145/kWH for Bolt cells.

Sorry, I had just done a quick search for Tesla's and assumed Chevy hadn't released that since they only just released the size of their pack.

Tesla currently costs $200/kWH. Looks like the actual estimate for the gigafactory is $100/kWH though. So, the Bolt is $8700 for their pack (confirmed) and the Model 3 will in theory be $6000.

 

[mfennell]

The Bolt interior is reported almost two classes larger compared to the Sonic. For most of the world, the Bolt interior is good family car size. That is a big deal.

Compared to a Sonic Hatch, the Bolt is 5" longer, 1" wider, has a 3" longer wheelbase, and is about 3" taller. I think it's going to look more substantial in person than most expect.

 

[Jeff N]

Sorry, I had just done a quick search for Tesla's and assumed Chevy hadn't released that since they only just released the size of their pack.

Tesla currently costs $200/kWH. Looks like the actual estimate for the gigafactory is $100/kWH though. So, the Bolt is $8700 for their pack (confirmed) and the Model 3 will in theory be $6000.

The $145/kWh is a cell price. At the pack it will probably be more like $175 or $200. Meanwhile, Tesla's GF $100/kWh pack price won't be achieved instantly but only after they can fully scale up production around 2020-2022 by which time GM says their LG pricing will be down to $100 cells and thus $125 or $150/kWh at the pack. The GF may give Tesla a $1,000-$2,000 advantage for 60-70 kWh packs in 2020ish timeframe which is still a big advantage but the most important aspect may be the ability to grow sales without battery supply limitations.

 

[McHoffa]

Compared to a Sonic Hatch, the Bolt is 5" longer, 1" wider, has a 3" longer wheelbase, and is about 3" taller. I think it's going to look more substantial in person than most expect.

Closer to a Honda Fit in terms of size and capacity (and looks). Still costs twice as much as a Honda Fit.

All Tesla has to do is launch a really nice looking sedan and it will blow away a regular looking hatch that costs slightly more.

Side note: the very limited run Fit EV only had a 20kWH battery and 80 mile range. Putting a 60kWH battery in it should have given it ~240 (or a little less). Honda could have had a winner if they were trying.

 

[Breezy]

The Bolt is larger than a Fit, inside and out. The Bolt is nearly the same size, externally, as a Kia Soul, and a bit smaller on the inside. Compared to the Soul:

Wheelbase: Bolt is 1.2 in. longer
Length: Bolt is 1.0 in. longer
Width: Bolt is 1.4 in. narrower
Height: Bolt is 0.2 in. shorter
Total volume: Bolt is 4.6 cu. ft. (4%) smaller

 

[McHoffa]

The Bolt is larger than a Fit, inside and out. The Bolt is nearly the same size, externally, as a Kia Soul, and a bit smaller on the inside. Compared to the Soul:

Wheelbase: Bolt is 1.2 in. longer
Length: Bolt is 1.0 in. longer
Width: Bolt is 1.4 in. narrower
Height: Bolt is 0.2 in. shorter
Total volume: Bolt is 4.6 cu. ft. (4%) smaller

You're right. Not huge, but it is larger. I have a Honda Fit and I feel it's already large (for a hatchback).

 

[AMPUP]

In my most charitable view, there may be a few Founder's editions delivered by December 31, 2017. Meaningful mass market deliveries won't come until much later.

Much more likely is that Tesla will keep saying it's on schedule for delivery in 2017, right up until the final months of 2017.

I highly doubt there will be any Founders MODEL III. By doing so they would devalue their high priced vehicles. This is going to be massed produced and they have to differentiate that from lower volume, higher value else they will devalue the brand.

 

[bigbear]

I've thought the same, I hope we're right.

I highly doubt there will be any Founders MODEL III. By doing so they would devalue their high priced vehicles. This is going to be massed produced and they have to differentiate that from lower volume, higher value else they will devalue the brand.

 

[Breezy]

I highly doubt there will be any Founders MODEL III. By doing so they would devalue their high priced vehicles. This is going to be massed produced and they have to differentiate that from lower volume, higher value else they will devalue the brand.

Whatever they're called, I think there could be a few deliveries to technically meet 2017, but I wouldn't expect to see any sort of volume production until well into 2018 at the earliest.

 

[gregincal]

One thing to remember is that Tesla absolutely can not shrink the Model S into a 35K car. You don't get soft leather seats, felt/leather lined interior, a 17" touch screen, an all aluminum body, and super car performance for 35K. It absolutely will not happen. The materials used to make a 35K Tesla will be very similar to the materials used to make a 37K Bolt, soft plastic/cloth interior, cloth/hard leather seats, smaller touch screen, mostly steel frame and better than average performance should be expected. The features will be similar and I'm willing to bet that passenger volume will be significantly smaller than the Bolt, but as it will be in a sedan style form factor performance will be better and I'm willing to give Tesla the edge on range. There will be much less margin on these cars and so I don't think Tesla will be able to build in features to activate later, so don't expect to suddenly get auto pilot activated in an OTA update, they won't be able to include sensors for auto pilot on every car like the Model S to keep the base cost down, so expect to have to either foot the bill up front or install them later for even more cost. I think those who are expecting to get a slightly smaller Model S for 35K will have a rude awakening when they sit in the Model 3.

I just have to point out the the base Model S does not have soft leather seats or a leather lined interior either. The Model S has cloth seats and leather seats are an option, just like it will be on the Model 3.