You guys are grasping at straws here. The scenario you’ve described is not impossible. Nothing is impossible, but rather the scenario you’ve described is highly improbable, I would wager into the 10’s of millions—if not 100’s of millions—and I do wager that every day that I drive my 2023 Model Y w/o USS. I pay attention, and I’m not a moron (not calling anyone here a moron). That is my “insurance”. (Aside, my TESLA is obviously lawfully insured—just saying.)
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Tesla Radar Speculation
- Thread starter Takaa
- Start date
None of these warnings happen when someone is already sitting in their car watching a movie, or waiting, especially in an EV. In theory the car can suddenly move silently after being completely idle for hours, not even an engine starting and a transmission clunking. Also Summon moves without warning. Unless animals can learn to interpret flashers and possibly the speaker whine or a beep.
We have heard no notice that Tesla is using Sentry footage to continuously update Tesla Vision object persistence.
That SS/FSD scenario you are decrying won’t occur until many more years into the future—at which time this scenario will be a non-issue, having been otherwise addressed/solved, thanks no doubt to the ever-growing number of frivolous lawsuits.
About 15yrs ago, I met a very kind, very smart gentlemen who was selling appliances at my local SEARS store (before they went under). I got to know him a little bit, and he confided in me that he was a Cuban immigrant who sought asylum in America under Castro’s Cuba in ‘68. He shared how he started a company that made concessions software, and he sold his company to Disney. He was a multi-millionaire who only sold appliances at SEARS to stay busy. He didn’t need the money. He made a keen observation of his time since emigrating to America—then almost 40yrs later—and he noted that “America is a very litigious society”. I must confess that—as a college student at the time, working on my bachelor’s degree—I did not exactly know what “litigious” meant. However, I think quickly on my feet and I’m something of a wordsmith, so I quickly put the pieces together, noting the root word “litigation”. In short, this wise man commented that American society is “sue-crazy”. People bring suit over the stupidest of things. That trend continues today and has only gotten worse—and not for the better!
I think the point of this thread is to highlight that the current suite of cameras was not intended for parking when the car was designed - USS was meant for that. Current cameras were meant for FSD and have failed to deliver even on that promise six years after introduction, hence the move to HW4. Tesla is not removing USS because they have a better solution - if they did it would already be here. Rather, they are doing it because they want to keep the car cheap enough to meet some artificial price threshold in the US. And because they think they can get away with stripping the car of essential equipment in this price segment. I guess they realize that S/X buyers wouldn't stand for this promise of a kiss hence their cars are still equipped with USS AFAIK. Of course you can be a careful driver, or just be really good at parking, in which case you don't need the tech. But 95% of us are not, and frankly with USS being now standard on most cars above $15k, we don't have to be. Buying M3 or Y now is giving Tesla a license to continue to dump on you in the future by arbitrarily turning off useful features in exchange for a pie in the sky (FSD - six years and counting, now Vision - 4 months and counting, add to that the wipers that still go off out of the blue every now and then). Mechanically, Tesla is an amazing car. As far as AI goes, there are obviously much better teams out there.
They didn't really work anyway. My Model X with USS happily let me back into a garbage can without giving enough warning to be useful. Any other car made after about 2015 would have automatically slammed on the brakes....
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
...what?
I can use SS to move the car without being physically inside it right now
I've done so with the car a couple hundred feet away, and the vehicle making essential 0 noise until it was already moving.
This has been available for years now. And doing it (from only 10s of feet away instead of 100s) with dumb summon available even longer.
Tesla owner Summons Model X from over 200ft away in max distance test
An owner of a Tesla Model X tested the distance that he would be able to utilize the new “Smart Summon” feature from, and the results were quite impressive. Smart Summon is turning into a rather most polarizing feature of the V10 software update. People have been using it for a number of...
www.teslarati.com
That's a model X doing it from over 200 feet in 2019.
I don’t think the decision to remove USS is a cost decision for the following reasons:
1) Munro & Associates did an accurate analysis of the cost savings per unit from removing USS and reported a savings of $114/u for a total annual savings for TESLA totaling an estimated $100k/yr. This was not a cost decision; although, increasing margins into the 1,000th decimal doesn’t hurt. (SEE ATTACHED CHART*)
2) Supply chain constraints been plaguing legacy automakers and have begun to plague TESLA as well, which is a constraint that TESLA (Elon) cannot abide.
3) TESLA Vision is the way forward, not USS—whether now or later. Sure, maybe Elon has jumped the gun, but he rips off a mean Band-Aid. Have you seen the Alex Fridman podcast interview with Andrej Karpathy, in which he explains in detail why TESLA moved away from USS? If you have not watched/listened, then I highly encourage you to do so:
* Credit: Mike Lane and Munro & Associates.
I’m not arguing that SS with USS is not possible. I am saying it is not viable and is, therefore, an outlier, not the norm....what?
I can use SS to move the car without being physically inside it right now
I've done so with the car a couple hundred feet away, and the vehicle making essential 0 noise until it was already moving.
This has been available for years now. And doing it (from only 10s of feet away instead of 100s) with dumb summon available even longer.
Tesla owner Summons Model X from over 200ft away in max distance test
An owner of a Tesla Model X tested the distance that he would be able to utilize the new “Smart Summon” feature from, and the results were quite impressive. Smart Summon is turning into a rather most polarizing feature of the V10 software update. People have been using it for a number of...
That's a model X doing it from over 200 feet in 2019.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Wait, what?
100k a year, at a unit cost of $114, is a total of... 877 cars.
Might wanna ask Sandy to check his math there.
Tesla is expected to deliver at least 1.8 million cars in 2023.
Times $114 per car is over 200 million dollars. Plus future savings never having to warranty parts you never install.
And most people think 1.8M cars is sandbagging.
AFAIK every car with FSD has been able to do it since late 2019. I've used it a bunch of times. I'm not using it in a crazy busy Costco on a Saturday, but I've used it a number of times to bring my car under a covered entrance from its parking spot at work... or to bring it curbside esp. in the rain at local smaller shopping centers, grocery stores, and strip mall areas, etc...
And there's TONS and TONS of people who use dumb summon all the time going back years earlier to similarly move the car without being in it (often if someone parked too close to their drivers door... I've done this too... or if they have a really tight garage)
Not sure how that's "not viable"
I can’t speak to the details of that chart. I just read it at face value. For clarification, I encourage you to watch the Sandy Munro YouTube video in which that chart is reviewed.
BOTTOM LINE: USS is not an expensive commodity.
Literally, every single YouTube video I have ever seen on Summon and SS decries the lack of utility of both. I don’t have either; have never used it; and don’t miss not having it. Same with USS.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I mean, if you only figure the cost across less than 900 cars, it's not.
Across almost 2 million this year, and 20 million as Teslas stated annual production goal by end of decade, it's a LOT of money.
I don't really need to watch a long video to know $114 per car is a LOT more than 100k dollars across that # of cars.
I mean if you we just believe youtube videos every tesla has massive body panel gaps and constantly catches on fire and crashes into things too.
And there's certainly plenty of videos of it working just fine, I even posted a link to one just a few posts ago in this very thread- summoning an X from over 200 feet away in a target parking lot- works just fine and pulls right up to the owner.
Anyway-I'm just relating my own experience actually using the product, which you seem to admit you never have....I'm not suggesting it's perfect and magical, but it's certainly NOT what you claimed, which was, to remind you "That SS/FSD scenario you are decrying won’t occur until many more years into the future"
It's occurring today. And many days over the last 3 years already.
That $100k/year isn't extrapolating the savings across a year's production, I think it's the annual savings just from removing the part numbers from their system and all the administrative work etc associated
$20k/year per colour x 5 colours
IMO it's pretty clear this was a supply chain thing given a different spin publicly
$20k/year per colour x 5 colours
IMO it's pretty clear this was a supply chain thing given a different spin publicly
I agree primary sources are always best. However, the Times article didn't provide a link to whatever data they used. Searching nhtsa.org reveals their site for the public-facing statistics:
crashstats.nhtsa.org
...but that doesn't break out accidents with backup cameras or the lack thereof. There is one study, circa 2008, that examined the efficacy of backup cameras in staged situations:
But it's not the one referenced in the Times article. So sorry, I can't provide a primary source.
Your link goes to a summary of a study, not the study itself. Raw percentage figures are less useful than numbers, as in the case of small sample sizes. The page has a form to request the actual paper, and I've done so. We'll see if they actually send it; I'll report here if they do.So taking all that into consideration and concluding "Backup cams don't really help" seems... not reflective of the actual info provided?
Here's a different perspective- a study where they actually bothered to COMPARE cars with and without backup cams.
Real-world effects of rear automatic braking and other backing assistance systems
'Real-world effects of rear automatic braking and other backing assistance systems' by Cicchino, Jessica B.www.iihs.org
Cameras PLUS rear park assist (the USS Tesla removed) reduced backing crashes by 42%
For clarification, “that scenario you are decrying” is referring to the notion that a small child or a pet would/might lie prostrate across the front of someone’s TESLA, thus being outside of view of TV. Not saying it cannot happen. I’m saying it DOES NOT happen. Even if it did, then nearly all other cars also would not pick up that a life is lying prostrate in front of the vehicle.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I mean, nice try at moving goalposts, but clearly that is not what you meant... We can tell based on what you actually said.
You are explicitly citing smart summon there.
What you meant was the car moving without a door slam or person making noise near the car (the thing suggested earlier that would cause the pet/child to wake or move) was "years in the future"
Which, again, it's not.
There's nothing, at all, in the scenario in question that is "years in the future"
The car has been able to do that since at least 2014, with basic summon on AP1... and in more advanced ways at much longer range with SS since 2019.
We talked about FSD not being live (out of beta) until years into the future…
AND
We / I talked about the highly unlikelihood of a small child or pet lying prone/prostrate in front of or behind a TESLA (w/o USS). You decriers go on and on about the loss / absence of USS. I’m saying it’s NO—BIG—DEAL. Your TESLA is still awesome, even absent USS.
Why did you (or anyone) even by a TESLA in the first place? Because it is lame, old technology, or is it because it is kick ass cutting edge technology? I think the latter. USS is old tech. Machine learning with neural nets processing live video in real time is cutting edge. Is it perfect? No. Is it there yet? No. This is what we all signed on for. If all you wanted was just a really cool car from an automaker that DOES NOT push the limits, then you should have bought a GM from Gubmint Motors.
You guessed incorrectly. Tesla was going to deliver a MX to me in December and I got them to check if my assigned VIN had USS. It did not, so I refused to take delivery. They assured me that the proximity features I originally ordered back in March would be "returned soon via a software update". 2 months later and there is still no such update.
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