Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

[Knightshade]

Tesla bot Optimus ready for field tests at factories

Tesla bot Optimus is ready for field tests at factories, according to the company's job post for the robot.

www.teslarati.com

Dumb headline.

That job posting isn't for the guy you hire when the robot is ready for field testing.

It's the guy you hire when you think you're maybe 6-12 months away from field testing.


This was already discussed days ago in the main thread when that posting first went up so I'll just quote myself from then:


The order of operations is probably something like:

Hire the guy

Get him up to speed on current capabilities, planned roadmap timing of future capabilities, introduce him to leads of other development groups and see where they're all at-- and similar with the leaders of the factory floor sections

Guy then works with those groups to define the first few tasks they want to trial the robot attempting to do, based not just on where development is at that point but what tasks are reasonable to initial-test in the factory without disrupting production--- this is way more than just "see if it can put these screws in" it's detailed requirements from the factory folks to the testing team, detailed test plans from the testing team, methods to measure and produce metrics from the testing, methods to feedback to the appropriate teams when issues are found, ways to cycle in updates to both the bot, measurements, metrics, and tasks, etc...

Remaining development and training happens as needed to get the robot able to attempt one or more of those specific jobs based on the work in step above

Test those things in a lab to see if basic requirements are there- feedback and refine as needed to meet minimum standards for the tasks.

Coordinate scheduling to actually start those attempts in the factory

THEN start factory floor testing.


I think that takes more than just a few months- especially since only 2-3 months ago they were still hiring design guys for major parts of the bot itself, still hiring learning programmers, and still hiring the guy to build the prototype production line (we discussed that at the time in here).


It's still a significant vote of confidence they're hiring this guy--- I just think folks expecting to see the bot building cars by summer are... Optimists

 

[heltok]

Today I finally understood it. I was watching a construction video:

The level of detail that the software is giving for these kind of projects is amazing. Tesla has the same level of details for their factories and vehicle production. They basically have the entire manufacturing line in the computers. Then they assign humans to tasks in the factory aka fasten this bolt with this torque and the humans figure out how to do this. That's how the bot will get the instruction, from the CAD/CAM software of the factory. Then they will improve on the manufacturing line and just give robots new instructions.

So what the Tesla bot needs to be able to do is to understand given instructions, aka "go to this location, grab this tool, locate this item, manipulate it into this position of the vehicle, verify it, confirm you have completed the task".

There will not be humans showing how it's done, that part has been taking care of in training. In action it will be just a computer generating instructions for it and it performing the tasks.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772217801089991168

Following this:

5% chance bots won't leave Elon factories until 2026
55% chance bots won't leave factories until 2026
40% chance bots will be in our hands ahead of 2026

Would they need such a good writer for corporate use?

 

[Tiger]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772217801089991168

Following this:

5% chance bots won't leave Elon factories until 2026
55% chance bots won't leave factories until 2026
40% chance bots will be in our hands ahead of 2026

Would they need such a good writer for corporate use?

What is a bot good for if it can't spill out it's own instructions.

 

[replicant]

Could this be the first public place where Tesla plan to test Optimus? Tesla diner, drive-in and Supercharger preparing work on interiors

Server is best paid job in the top 10 list according to https://www.indeed.com/career-advice/finding-a-job/most-common-jobs-in-america. Cashier and food prep worker are the most popular jobs.

Tesla can internally test Optimus in #3 (stocking), 4 (laborer), 5 (construction) and 6 (janitor). #1 (cashier) and 7 (bookkeeper) aren't physical so can be replaced by virtual AI only. The next top positions are in medical/care…

 

[Christine69420]

Could this be the first public place where Tesla plan to test Optimus? Tesla diner, drive-in and Supercharger preparing work on interiors

Server is best paid job in the top 10 list according to https://www.indeed.com/career-advice/finding-a-job/most-common-jobs-in-america. Cashier and food prep worker are the most popular jobs.

Tesla can internally test Optimus in #3 (stocking), 4 (laborer), 5 (construction) and 6 (janitor). #1 (cashier) and 7 (bookkeeper) aren't physical so can be replaced by virtual AI only. The next top positions are in medical/care…

It would surprise me. When testing something new you want to keep all other factors well known.

This would be a new robot in a new "upstart" diner. Too many unknown factors. Probability of mess pretty large!

 

[Tiger]

Could this be the first public place where Tesla plan to test Optimus? Tesla diner, drive-in and Supercharger preparing work on interiors

Server is best paid job in the top 10 list according to https://www.indeed.com/career-advice/finding-a-job/most-common-jobs-in-america. Cashier and food prep worker are the most popular jobs.

Tesla can internally test Optimus in #3 (stocking), 4 (laborer), 5 (construction) and 6 (janitor). #1 (cashier) and 7 (bookkeeper) aren't physical so can be replaced by virtual AI only. The next top positions are in medical/care…

Tesla bookkeeper bots can use software via keyboard, that's the beauty of vision only and human size with human like fingers! All you need is a different training module.

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla bookkeeper bots can use software via keyboard, that's the beauty of vision only and human size with human like fingers! All you need is a different training module.

why would you need a robot bookkeeper at a Tesla restaurant?

If all the sales, inventory, etc data is digital nobody needs to type anything.

 

[Tiger]

why would you need a robot bookkeeper at a Tesla restaurant?

If all the sales, inventory, etc data is digital nobody needs to type anything.

Also, you won't need a cash register, the Tesla Bot can count everything in its head and print out a receipt!

 

[AnbaricBike]

Anybody know how much these things weigh? Optimus, Figure01...?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Anybody know how much these things weigh? Optimus, Figure01...?

Hair: Blonde
Eyes: Blue
Weight: 110
Disposition: Even
Mood Code: Rotary Adjustable

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772721827665596690

Half car cost

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772725390139695200

 

[heltok]

Less than half can be a lot less than half. At scale HW5+, cameras, battery pack etc should be pretty low costs. Motors are the expensive part but I am sure they are working hard with their greek team to lower the costs. But I don't think cost is a huge problem at this stage, $1k more or less who cares when it's making $100k/year. What matters is massproduceabilility, durability, reliability, service and getting the software to be useful. I see Figure et al focus only on the latter and I think Tesla will have a huge lead on the other ones.

 

[AnbaricBike]

Hair: Blonde
Eyes: Blue
Weight: 110
Disposition: Even
Mood Code: Rotary Adjustable

 

[Buckminster]

In factory end of this year and could sell externally end of next yr.

 

[Mengy]

In factory end of this year and could sell externally end of next yr.

Yep, they are expecting rapid progress. Since it's Elon time its probably more like in factory early 2025 and selling externally early 2026, but that's still awesome!

 

[kabin]

More features?

 

[Linkmeup]

Good segment

https://twitter.com/x/status/1784750869373985076