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Tesla new model silhouette

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Elon shows the new model silhouette- looks like a hatch/coupe sort. Model 2 or Model Two?


screenshot-electrek.co-2023.05.17-15_44_45.png

screenshot-electrek.co-2023.05.17-15_44_45.png
 
If I were laying bets, and I'm not, the new duo will be similar in approach to what Tesla has done all along:

S (Sedan) + X (Large Hatchback) = 2 cars on the same underlying chassis/electronics/architecture with different heights
3 (Compact Sedan) + Y (Compact Hatchback) = 2 cars again on the same underlying chassis/electronics/architecture

So the future wont be one affordable vehicle, it would necessarily end up being two. And we already know what they are!

2 (Sub-compact Sedan) + 2H (Sub-compact Hatchback) = next 2 affordable cars on the same underlying chassis/electronics/architecture

Elon has told us as much when he spoke about manufacturing and how the next-gen model(s) will be the next step beyond what they were able to figure out for the 3/Y dating back to 2017 with 2018 production start. Now they will take lessons learned there, and lessons from Cybertruck and Y with megacasting, and apply them for the new vehicle architecture. It looks like they are generally on schedule to release one major new vehicle form factor every six years:

Model S in 2012
Model X in 2015
Model 3 in 2018
Model Y in 2020

So that's six years between the S and 3 as the sedan variants with the hatchback variants coming out 2-3 years later. But it's now 2023 and we haven't seen anything yet. So I'm guessing the 2 would come out in late 2024 with the 2H in 2026. Some people think Tesla doesn't have typical model cycles, and that may be true, but it's less true than many may believe. The pattern is there to be seen.
 
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So the future wont be one affordable vehicle, it would necessarily end up being two. And we already know what they are!

2 (Sub-compact Sedan) + 2H (Sub-compact Hatchback) = next 2 affordable cars on the same underlying chassis/electronics/architecture

Two is indeed possible.

I expect "boxier" compact vs the 3. Shorter in length (compact) and taller (higher than the 3, similar to the Y) to be 1st. I would call it the Model Z, it fits nicely in a SUV/CUV ladder below...
  • Model Z ($30-42K) = Audi Q3, BMW X1, Volvo XC40, Mercedes GLA, Lexus UX
  • Model Y ($47-56K) = Audi Q5, BMW X3, Volvo XC60, Mercedes GLC, Lexus NX
  • Model X ($99-109K) = Audi Q7, BMW X5, Volvo XC90, Mercedes GLE, Lexus RX, GX
The Sub-compact Sedan (Model 2) is possible, but less likely with the overlap in price with of the Model Z. To distinguish, perhaps make it a two door coupe. For a car ladder...
  • Model 2 ($25-38K) = Audi A3, BMW 1-Series, Volvo C40 (discontinued), Mercedes A-Class, CLA, Lexus IS
  • Model 3 ($40-53K) = Audi A5, BMW 3-Series, Volvo S60, Mercedes C-Class, CLS, Lexus ES, GS
  • Model S ($89-109K))= Audi A7, BMW 5 Series, Volvo S90, Mercedes E-Class, S-Class, Lexus LS
The Model Z would be higher priced and sell well. A Model 2 may come later, though I think the Van is the 2nd vehicle.
 
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don’t see the point in a sub compact sedan and hatch - just make it a hatch and be done with it.

Likewise with the 3, refresh it with a hatch and keep the coupe styling if you want - the i4 is a good example of a sedan/coupe styling but with a practical hatchback and the 3 could easily copy that. potentially makes it even closer to the Y so you go for the Y if you want space for a dog/height/interior space and less fussed about ‘sportiness’ etc
 
One of the two new models will be a van. The other will def be a compact SUV, but I hope they then use that platform to create a small hatchback.

I hope it is 2 new platforms and not 2 new models. The van platform could then be turned into loads of stuff like minibus, camper van etc.
 
  • Model 2 ($25-38K) = Audi A3, BMW 1-Series, Volvo C40 (discontinued), Mercedes A-Class, CLA, Lexus IS
  • Model 3 ($40-53K) = Audi A5, BMW 3-Series, Volvo S60, Mercedes C-Class, CLS, Lexus ES, GS
  • Model S ($89-109K))= Audi A7, BMW 5 Series, Volvo S90, Mercedes E-Class, S-Class, Lexus LS

Not to be a dick, but most of what you wrote is incorrect. Many of those vehicles aren't in the same class and don't compete with each other.

5 series and E class are big-mid-size sedans starting in the mid-$50s at appx 195 inches of length.

A7 is a big-mid-size hatchback starting in the low $70s and is roughly the size of the E class and 5 series (and A6).

GS was discontinued 5 years ago with production ending in 2020, but it was a big-mid-size sedan of the same class as the E class and 5 series, with dimensions a hair shy of those two. The last GS started in the low-$50s.

ES is a big-mid-size sedan with appx 196" of length and starting in the low $40s.

LS is full-size sedan starting at $80k and is about 10" longer than the vehicles mentioned above.

IS, 3 series, and C class are all in the same category having nearly identical dimensions of appx 185" and prices starting in the low-$40s.

I know nothing of Volvo, because it's Volvo, so I'll take you at your word there.
 
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Not to be a dick, but most of what you wrote is incorrect. Many of those vehicles aren't in the same class and don't compete with each other.

5 series and E class are big-mid-size sedans starting in the mid-$50s at appx 195 inches of length.

A7 is a big-mid-size hatchback starting in the low $70s and is roughly the size of the E class and 5 series (and A6).

GS was discontinued 5 years ago with production ending in 2020, but it was a big-mid-size sedan of the same class as the E class and 5 series, with dimensions a hair shy of those two. The last GS started in the low-$50s.

ES is a big-mid-size sedan with appx 196" of length and starting in the low $40s.

LS is full-size sedan starting at $80k and is about 10" longer than the vehicles mentioned above.

IS, 3 series, and C class are all in the same category having nearly identical dimensions of appx 185" and prices starting in the low-$40s.

I know nothing of Volvo, because it's Volvo, so I'll take you at your word there.
I'll admit it isn't a perfect comparison (variations in price and specs). All cars roughly fit in their general segment. See below chart for the Top Selling models in California in 2022.

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Source: https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-4Q-22_FINAL.pdf

The intent was to show Tesla expanding into a particular segment with an expanding ladder of choices.
  • Full Size Pickup Truck = Cybertruck
  • (Luxury) Subcompact SUV = Model Z (Speculative, more likely)
  • Small Car or Sports/Pony = Model 2 (Speculative, less likely)
 
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Pretty sure the price of cars in California are of limited interest to those in the UK&I.

Good job he wasn't talking about California car prices then! :) But instead speculating about where the new Tesla models might fit in as a complete lineup. Bear in mind Tesla is a US company, so likely looking at US-centric market segmentation such as the above when making their plans.

All that comes to my mind looking at that silhouette is while I like the Tesla family roofline, if that's gonna be some super compact car, it'll surely have no space at all in the back/boot with a roof like that. Surprised they don't have to square it off a little,
 
That’s a bait right? I can smell a ‘but’ coming somewhere!
Yes. I think the final shape will be different. I expect a sub-compact SUV/CUV similar to: Audi Q3, BMW X1, Volvo XC40, Mercedes GLA, Lexus UX.

The silhouette almost reminds me if this old image...