Tesla is dumping Mobileye???

[Frank99]

I architect chips like this for a living, though in a different business. I've lived through pissing off every possible customer in the world because we couldn't immediately scale by a factor of 10 or 100, and couldn't deliver product on time. I've lived through having that attempt to scale completely disrupt the development of new products, causing delivery of new product to be years late.

It's not a stretch to assume that a similar thing could happen to ME.

It's not a stretch to assume that their current architecture has hit a wall, and can't be simply extended to meet the new customer requirements. In such a case, the next generation gets delayed while architecture starts over from a fresh sheet of paper.

Such a situation could certainly lead to what we see here - more-or-less a mutual parting of the ways. ME recognizes that they can't meet Tesla's new customer requirements, and Tesla recognizing the same. The two would simply be incapable of reaching agreement on delivery, and the relationship would be over.

It's also easy to imagine that, assuming a limited design capability, ME would have to make a decision on what they'd spend their design resources on. Should they bet their company on supporting a niche player in the market with a great name and great prospects, or should they bet their company on the entire rest of the market whose shipments two years from now will be 200 times that of the glamorous company?

Not all situations have Machiavellian maneuverings behind the scenes; sometimes your engineers are just tired.

 

[sillydriver]

My concern is that even if it's been six months since top chip architects were hired, the lag from that event to having software running on new silicon designs in shipping cars has got to be quite long. I wonder if there is an interim solution using Mobileye hardware to meet the Model 3 timeline.

 

[Odebek]

My concern is that even if it's been six months since top chip architects were hired, the lag from that event to having software running on new silicon designs in shipping cars has got to be quite long.

I think the timeline will work... basically 12-16 months for version 1.0. They don't have to worry so much about power, heat or size constraints the way you would for chipsets for mobile devices so that will really speed up the initial design process.

 

[sillydriver]

I think the timeline will work... basically 12-16 months for version 1.0. They don't have to worry so much about power, heat or size constraints the way you would for chipsets for mobile devices so that will really speed up the initial design process.

I've been meaning to ask - is that license plate meant to be binary for 42 (the answer to life, the universe and everything)?

 

[Odebek]

I've been meaning to ask - is that license plate meant to be binary for 42 (the answer to life, the universe and everything)?

Yes, but Don't Panic

 

[Shock-On-T]

I envy your wit. Shame here in Aus they want $440 per year for personalized plates....

 

[bhzmark]

The Future of Tesla Autopilot - What Happens After Mobileye? is a good article speculating on what is next.

Remember that in Dec George Hotz shared emails with EM suggesting that EM was open to finding a replacement for Mobileye. And then in March EM went to Mobileye in Israel reportedly to see what they offered for later iterations of AP. Elon Musk reportedly visited Mobileye to test tech for next gen Tesla Autopilot Now it seems that perhaps Tesla didn't like what they saw. or vice versa I suppose.

 

[22522]

To do autonomous well you need to take advantage of the sensor array capabilities of a platform.

ME can't do that.
Tesla can.

 

[SR22pilot]

Well, apart from dying, the Blaupunct that came in my 1991 NSX lacked a few features.

Interesting. Mine had a very nice Bose unit.

 

[Lex]

Well that's that for me, I'm totally comfortable on this topic now. Can't wait to see the in-house or Nvidia-partnered Autopilot 2.0 vision systems.

But I am wondering why folks seems focused on the Model 3 having the first rendition of AP 2.0. Elon said that the Model S (and presumably the X) will always get the best tech first as the flagship model(s). Though I agree that the hardware could be ready for all models by end of 2017.

 

[sillydriver]

Well that's that for me, I'm totally comfortable on this topic now. Can't wait to see the in-house or Nvidia-partnered Autopilot 2.0 vision systems.

But I am wondering why folks seems focused on the Model 3 having the first rendition of AP 2.0. Elon said that the Model S (and presumably the X) will always get the best tech first as the flagship model(s). Though I agree that the hardware could be ready for all models by end of 2017.

I spoke above about meeting the model 3 timeline because I think it would be trouble for Tesla to introduce the M3 with the old system and replace it soon after. It's the M3 that has a public date attached (mid 17) that would upset people if it was missed. I agree that if the new AP is ready before, it would ship in the MS and MX first. I think we all hope that will be the case, but I worry that the bigger a technological discontinuity the new AP is, the longer it will take to get it out the door.

 

[Alketi]

If Tesla is designing their own processing solution in-house, then to my mind, that would seriously call into question an AP 2.0 hardware update by the end of this year (to presumably coincide with Musk's autopilot announcement that he alluded to at the All Thing's D conference).

Further conjecture -- Musk's tweets about ways to innovate with the current hardware (temporal smoothing, etc) also indicate that the current hardware may have a longer run than expected. (Of course, temporal smoothing could still apply to next-gen hardware as well.)

Another option for Tesla is to ship next-gen sensors before shipping the next-gen chipset and then update the processor assembly with a service visit , but that requires a common hardware interface, and that the old chipset would need to support new hardware, and that software would have to be re-written and tested, etc. All to deliver a temporary solution. It seems highly unlikely they'll go this route.

I had been thinking AP 2.0 hardware would arrive this year, but I'm now thinking that's probably too aggressive considering the ME news. I'm imagining that the deadline is really the Model 3 launch (next July) for AP 2.0 hardware with, at least, AP 1.0 functionality...

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yes, I was hoping for AP 2.0 by end of year. I now worry they'll get it by end of next year...

 

[Richg]

In reading through this thread, I find it strange that Apple is not considered as a potential supplier. There are large investments by Apple toward this exact area of technology. It addition with the investment in China's answer to Uber, it shows Tesla and Apple have similar objectives.

Being in close proximity, basically serving the same customer profile, and having like strategic visions ..... Why not an Apple / Tesla relationship?

 

[Alketi]

Being in close proximity, basically serving the same customer profile, and having like strategic visions ..... Why not an Apple / Tesla relationship?

Apple is essentially a future competitor and currently developing their own self-driving EV. I think a partnership with nVidia would be more likely.

But, my guess is that the major players self-driving hardware players (MobileEye, nVidia, others) all seem to naturally be developing end-to-end solutions on a longer timeframe, solutions that also may not have the flexibility that Tesla wants, and that Tesla decided it's better to just bring this all in-house. The hardest part (by far) in self-driving is the software, which I think Tesla already significantly owns. The easier part is a hardware controller that takes inputs from the various sensors.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

This AP2 news...I WAS hoping that AP2 was just around the corner and I could delay getting my MS by a month or so to capture the next iteration. Now I'm thinking the time to design a new chip, build it, test it, write software for it, test that, then deploy into the fleet.... might just take more than a month or so. Conclusion - buy the car of my reality now, and let the dreams mature for a future round.
Thanks guys for the sound analysis of the conditions. I had been speculating based on incomplete data. Now I think it is clear as to the length of the path.

 

[Tam]

In reading through this thread, I find it strange that Apple is not considered as a potential supplier.

1) Apple's introduction of its map was disastrous. Apple is new in Autonomous Vehicle area and it is questionable that they can duplicate Tesla's commitment to solve the problems timely.

2) Apple's philosophy is incompatible with Tesla's:

Although both are for-profit companies, Apple goes out of its way to make sure it's profitable by using all the tricks in the books:

a) Monopoly any way you can from hardware to software while Tesla opens its patents and invites others to advance sustainable transport.
b) Human exploitation as evidenced by using low wage assembly workers in China while Tesla is willing to pay more for workers with rights as well as union rights (at least 50% unionized work force in Gigafactory.)
c) Although since 2014, Apple has made efforts to follow Tesla's footstep in avoiding using Conflict Minerals but Amnesty International still names Apple as one of violators.
d) Tax avoidance scheme by utilizing a variety of offshore structures.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Interesting. Mine had a very nice Bose unit.

Oh sure, you and @RDoc just casually NSX dropping like I won't be jealous.

 

[ShotgunF15E]

Maybe the software won't be ready or it won't be approved for full autonomous use yet, but all of the hardware necessary will be in every Model 3.

That's the same line of BS I was told about my MS. "All the hardware is already in the car."

Now we know the AP 1.0 HARDWARE in the Model S/X will NEVER be capable of full autonomous use. More false advertising...

 

[RDoc]

Interesting. Mine had a very nice Bose unit.

I stand corrected, it was a Bose unit. One of the door speakers failed, then a few months later the head unit failed. I replaced it with a Sony and the door speakers with some coaxial aftermarket speakers and couldn't believe how much better the sound was.