Tesla is dumping Mobileye???

[dakh]

In a properly layered system it should be possible to swap out a lower-level component without modifying higher-level component. From the very incomplete information that we're exposed to it sounds like Tesla used Mobileye hardware and some of the lower level software layers but didn't use their whole stack. So if Tesla already has its own tech for using those chips to make sense of camera feed, it is a fairly well "boxed" problem to solve. Not saying it's trivial or easy and maybe there are some patent barriers to overcome. But Tesla is confident they can do it.

 

[sandpiper]

You mean besides that fact that in the SMP2 Elon stated that the Model 3 will be fully autonomous?

Well... the model 3 may be fully autonomous - but it certainly won't the the 2017, 2018, 2019 or 2020 model years. My bet is not before 2030 and probably quite a bit later. In any case, the whole market is pursing autonomy and when we do get there Tesla won't be the only one. Tesla's key differentiator is the electric part.

 

[Johan]

Just because you don't like reality doesn't mean there's an alternative.

It seems you have not quite made yourself acquainted with mr. Elon Musk.

 

[Matias]

Elon has said that the Model 3 will be capable of full autonomy

I'm pretty sure that not at launch.

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm pretty sure that not at launch.

Maybe the software won't be ready or it won't be approved for full autonomous use yet, but all of the hardware necessary will be in every Model 3.

 

[RDoc]

It seems you have not quite made yourself acquainted with mr. Elon Musk.

Unfortunately, however, a lot of us have become quite well acquainted with Mr Elon Musk's company's software. Generally, on first release it's terrible, bordering on embarrassing, occasionally dangerous. Then it improves at glacial speed, never reaching the original promised functionality, even years later.

 

[MP3Mike]

Well... the model 3 may be fully autonomous - but it certainly won't the the 2017, 2018, 2019 or 2020 model years. My bet is not before 2030 and probably quite a bit later. In any case, the whole market is pursing autonomy and when we do get there Tesla won't be the only one. Tesla's key differentiator is the electric part.

Maybe the software won't be ready or it won't be approved for full autonomous use yet, but all of the hardware necessary will be in every Model 3.

 

[Matias]

Maybe the software won't be ready or it won't be approved for full autonomous use yet, but all of the hardware necessary will be in every Model 3.

How do you know this?

 

[MP3Mike]

How do you know this?

I am going based on what Elon has said and his SMP2.

 

[Matias]

I am going based on what Elon has said and his SMP2.

I've read SMP2 and it doesn't say, that Model 3 will have all the necessary hardware for fully autonomous vehicle at launch.

 

[Alketi]

Well... the model 3 may be fully autonomous - but it certainly won't the the 2017, 2018, 2019 or 2020 model years. My bet is not before 2030 and probably quite a bit later. In any case, the whole market is pursing autonomy and when we do get there Tesla won't be the only one. Tesla's key differentiator is the electric part.

The industry is moving WAY faster than a 2030 target. Elon believes it's a solved problem and will be ready 2 years from now, adding perhaps another year for regulation to catch up. Personally, I think that's a bit optimistic, but I would only add a year or two to his numbers.

In any event, yes, the Model 3 when shipping will absolutely NOT be fully autonomous, but the hope is that it will have the hardware that will eventually support it. Autonomy is a software problem. As we all know, software can be patched/upgraded in the field. )

 

[Johan]

Unfortunately, however, a lot of us have become quite well acquainted with Mr Elon Musk's company's software. Generally, on first release it's terrible, bordering on embarrassing, occasionally dangerous. Then it improves at glacial speed, never reaching the original promised functionality, even years later.

I thought we we're discussing hardware here? In-house proprietary Tesla chips as opposed to Mobileye chips and cameras. In my experience Tesla's hardware ia excellent.

 

[dakh]

I thought we we're discussing hardware here? In-house proprietary Tesla chips as opposed to Mobileye chips and cameras. In my experience Tesla's hardware ia excellent.

We don't know yet how the hardware is gonna look like. They're obviously designing something but is it complementary to say NVidia chips and a close collaboration announcement is about to be made, or full in-house built solution replacement, or something else, we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[sandpiper]

The industry is moving WAY faster than a 2030 target. Elon believes it's a solved problem and will be ready 2 years from now, adding perhaps another year for regulation to catch up. Personally, I think that's a bit optimistic, but I would only add a year or two to his numbers.

In any event, yes, the Model 3 when shipping will absolutely NOT be fully autonomous, but the hope is that it will have the hardware that will eventually support it. Autonomy is a software problem. As we all know, software can be patched/upgraded in the field. )

It's a mixed problem. Autonomy is only becoming possible because of dramatic improvements in parallel processing capability - which has enabled practical neural networks / deep learning. Yes there's software, but the hardware has to be capable of supporting the software. Full autodrive will also probably require some method of vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to ground station live communication. There has to be a standard developed for that, and you can't build hardware to meet a non-existent standard.

Elon tends to exaggerate / be over-optimistic. And even when he's doesn't people take his words and blow them up well beyond what he actually intended.

Autonomy is such a complex problem that it's simply not possible to deploy quickly. With over 3 trillion miles driven annually in North America, it's not good enough to get it right 9999/10000 times. It has to be much better. I'm also convinced that it will require infrastructure upgrades: better standards for road painting, lights/signs/signals, more accurate GPS and possibly some in-road active hardware. I suspect you'll first see auto-drive only lanes, then autodrive-only roads and eventually auto-driving will start to deploy into the mixed traffic areas.

I remain 100% convinced that we're going to see gradual improvements over the next 10-20 years with legislation slowly tracking behind. Full level 4 autonomy? 2030 to 2040.

 

[Tam]

...Everyone's spinning this as MBLY "not being up to the task" but
isn't it just as likely that they told TSLA very clearly what the limitations of their technology were and TSLA built something out of it that
MBLY never would have endorsed (due to its overreach)?

I think quitting MBLY will speed up, not slow down the implementation of AP 2.0.

MBLY is just too slow for TSLA.

TSLA has a good track record that when suppliers are not up to the task, it would bring the job in house.

This year's annual shareholder meeting, Elon gave quite a few examples of that such as:

From the very early day, with the Roadster gearbox, they thought they would get faster implementation by letting the "experts" from outside suppliers to do it for them but it was in fact, much faster just to design it in house from a scratch and produced it onsite.

 

[scottm]

Not to say "I told you so", but this seems to tip the balance fairly strongly in the whole "should I get a Model S now or wait until the
``imminent'' AP 2.0 update?" debate. There's a bigger "lesson" here: the future is always more uncertain than you think, so if there's
something that will make you happy today don't put it off indefinitely in the hopes of something that will make you only marginally
happier coming along.

Plus, you could die at any time... so enjoy today!

 

[KZKZ]

TSLA has a good track record that when suppliers are not up to the task, it would bring the job in house.
.

I'm not so sure about that, especially when you look at how the Falcon Wing Doors have turned out. That work was brought in house.

 

[KZKZ]

Suggest changing the thread title...

It was MobilEye who dumped Tesla. Not the other way around. MobilEye opted not to renew Tesla's contract, citing concerns with Tesla's implementation of Autopilot using sensors that were never designed to handle a lateral crash such as the one that occurred recently resulting in the death of a Tesla owner.

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2016/07/26/mobileye-and-tesla-part-waysamid-autopilot.html

everything I read also said it was Mobileye who did the dumping.

 

[plankeye]

Whatever... Their loss once Tesla starts selling half a million cars a year.

 

[3Victoria]

Do you have reason to believe a third party could have done better?