Yuri_G
Member
I said five years, 2017-2021. Except for maybe Toyota, all major car makers will offer a wide range EVs in all price categories before 2022.
(PHEVs even well before that, 2016-2020, these longer-range PHEVs such as the new Volt will offer good alternatives as well).
Not because of Tesla, but mainly because of upcoming emission regulations, better battery technology and better infrastructure:
- Stricter emission caps and penalties by the end of the decade in all major car markets (China, Europe, NA)
- Upgraded charging standards: Chademo and CCS both at 150 kW (and later 350kW if needed) for fast wired charging. Many of these CCS and Chademo charging networks are subsidized by public funds around the world, Tesla's stations for a single car brand are not.
- New battery plants in forms of JVs or other large supply contracts with mostly Asian suppliers as needed (don't think the planning/supply departments at these large car makers forgot about the batteries): LG; Samsung; Panasonic; Chinese brands...
Compare Tesla's hyperbole announcements "$5billion investment for Gigafactory 1", "up to 150 GWh from Gigafactory 1", "up to 1 million cars from Fremont", "millions of cars by 2025" and finally "we could match/exceed Apple's market cap within a decade" with the actual competition / reality on the ground by 2020-2022, not before.
Tesla and its CEO like to talk about the future - and rarely about the additional funds to get there. Large car makers and other relative newcomers (such as BYD) on the other hand execute quietly on their plans.
And they actually have the billions needed each year to get there.
Your "predictions" are always optimistic for the incumbents and always pessimistic for Tesla. What is the current reality in the EV marketplace? Tesla is selling tens of thousands of $100k cars per year and the major OEMs can't match that with their $30k EVs. Tesla has the only reliable, fast-charging network.
The reality is Tesla is 5 years ahead of the competition and no other manufacturer is taking EVs seriously, in the year 2016. Your argument will always be flawed because the incumbents will not seriously build EVs at a mass market level. Tesla will be well entrenched in the market before another earnest player comes into the picture.
Again, how did your Hyundai Ioniq prediction pan out? When will BYD sell cars in the US?