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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

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I'll try to knock off a few at once;

Since the steel required to support the extremely heavy equipment is already so large, the added height and weight would require larger cranes and more critical picks. larger cranes, with more line parts (more pulleys) are also slower, and more expensive to operate.

I doubt they could find cranes big enough to economically add another floor. Land is cheap, they'll build outwards.

Concrete is sometimes mixed on site, but I would doubt that to be the case here, you'd see a Batch Plant and some Sizable Aggregate piles and given that it's Nevada, probably a facility that can hold/produce ice or Liquid Nitrogen. Local concrete companies do this very efficiently, and besides there's very little concrete work left to do. This is a structural steel building, not precast. All the concrete is under the steel and buried in sand.

Cladding will come in later, it'll probably be thin gauge steel. Not sure what sort of insulation they'll need. No harm for that steel to sit exposed for a long time. Nevada's is nowhere near and ocean and the relative moisture in the air is low. why do you think they store old planes in the desert? Low moisture.

What is a bit puzzling is that their appears to be very little activity on site. I don't see any sort of HVAC/Utilities (Aside from a few sections of pipe) or other Mechanical systems being installed. I would have expected all sorts of things sitting around, especially some of the larger components that can only be installed while everything is open. It all just looks very... quiet and more like a warehouse than a factory at this point.
 
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Hey, Kids, you are all over thinking this. The way you double output is not by expanding outwards or adding a third level.

You double or even triple production by adding a second or even a third shift of workers. This is what they are running the numbers on, not more steel. lol!
 
cWyzyOS.jpg

From the drone 4k flyover. Concrete work has started and has gone quite a bit. Note color differences and the rebars that has been laid. Looks like the first floor is done in the middle.
 
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And it looks like they have started foundation work on section 5. It is interesting how sectioned off they made this, like whole separate buildings, but right next to each other.

Isn't the idea of "whole separate buildings" a requirement given that they want to start producing batteries from the first building before the second one is finished? You really don't want to start manufacturing in a building that has a gaping hole in one end.

RT
 
Isn't the idea of "whole separate buildings" a requirement given that they want to start producing batteries from the first building before the second one is finished? You really don't want to start manufacturing in a building that has a gaping hole in one end.

RT
yeah, they will be independent mini factories, or at least THIS part will be. It could be that this quarter will be independent to get equipment and engineers to work asap to make their end of 2016 deadline and also start learning asap. It is an open question if it will be 4 mini factories, or 1 mini and a 3/4 big factory or something else.
 
A new study by Lux Research showing, even as everyone's costs decrease, how the Gigafactory will extend Tesla's lead in battery costs:

Here’s how Tesla batteries will beat the competition - MarketWatch

I find the $/kWh graph intriguing. Two takeaways:

1. Place a horizontal ruler across these graphs, and by my estimate Tesla's prices will be at least 4 years ahead of its competition, e.g., around 2025 the closest competitor will reach Tesla's 2020 $/kWh internal price. Later for others like Nissan.
2. Little differences add up over time, giving Tesla Model 3 higher margins than its competition which Tesla can use to grow production faster than anyone else.

The next decade will be very exciting to watch. Pass the popcorn!
 
I'd take anything Lux research says with a BIG pinch of (Lithium-Cobalt) salt. They are just guesstimating like the rest of us. If you look historically their prognoses haven't exactly been spot on. They're kind of like those stock analysts who constantly raise or lower their one year price target to be about +20% of the current stock price.

I too could take publicly available data and plot it and then draw linear progression lines in to the future in fancy colors.