Just to add to this regarding the effective tax rate at conversion vs retirement. The traditional IRA rollover stack o top of your existing income, so one gets hit with the worst tax bracket(s). If this is higher than the brackets in retirement, then one is better off not rolling over. When calculating, remember that the tax brackets and (standard) deduction reset each year. A staged rollover (is this a thing?) would be beneficial, especially at the brackets with big jumps.No, convert your traditional IRA funds to a Roth IRA. In a conversion you'll pay ordinary taxes on the amount converted, but you'll have zero capital gains from that point on with the Roth converted funds. If you leave funds in a traditional IRA, you continue to differ taxes until you tap the month, but you wind up paying your marginal income tax rate on the capital gains. So if you're in a high tax bracket, say 35% is your marginal tax on ordinary income, you are also incurring a 35% tax rate on your capital gains. But Roth pushes your capital tax rate down to 0%. Even just converting your traditional IRA to a taxable brokerage account you'll likely pay 15% or 20% capital gains in stead of facing 35% tax rate on the traditional IRA.
Roth conversions are pretty important for any aggressive growth investor. I'm looking for 30% or more annual return on my Tesla shares. In about two decades, when I hit 72 and am required to start taking significant distributions from my IRA, I will have enormous gains on the Tesla shares. Moreover, the total value of my Tesla position could be so large that these required minimum distributions lock me into the highest ordinary tax brackets for the rest of my life and must be paid by my estate. If on the other hand, I convert these shares to a Roth account, I avoid any capital gains on these shares post Roth conversion. Moreover, my heirs can inherit the Roth accounts without paying taxes on them.
A traditional IRA really works out as a tax advantage, if you truly intend to be in a substantially lower tax bracket in retirement and if you are such a conservative investor that your capital gains fail to keep up with inflation. Most Tesla investors will find that a Roth conversion is a much better tax strategy. Oh, yeah, you can always give your traditional IRA to charity and avoid all the deferred taxes. So there is some portion of my traditional IRA that I will never convert, but will simply hold for charitable giving. This avoids the taxes paid on a Roth conversion, but I think it should be an intentional choice to give your wealth away and not just a corner you get backed into later on in life.
When doing the calculation, also keep in mind that a lower tax payment is not necessarily better. Quick example: $1,000 in an IRA, roll over at 24%, pay $240, and have $760 in a Roth. Stock grows 10x, now you have $7,600 tax free.
Versus, leave is in the traditional, x10 to $10,000. Even if it still taxed at 24%, you pay $2,400 in tax, but still get $7,600 post tax.
For married jointly in 2021 the standard deduction is 25,100, so over 20 years of retirement that is half a million tax free. Then ~$200k at 10%, $600k at 12%, $900k @ 22%, ~$1.6 million at 24%, then the jump to 32%..
On the other hand, if one will be pulling big bucks out at once in retirement, and such would hit the higher brackets then versus rolling over now (meaning growth of the account above the brackets), that's a good reason to rollover.