Supercharging experiences in Norcal this weekend. Is Tesla ready for primetime?

[ArtInCT]

Hummm... the Model S and X are online.... can communicate with Tesla Supercharger Reservation Server(s) (in the future) and therefore can know your location, continually estimate and update your time of arrival and reserve the next available SuperCharger Stall for you when you are a certain number of minutes away. I think that is how a reservation system can work well. Of course you would have to inform the system of your itinerary. I worked on such a software system for airline gates quite a few years ago, this is quite doable if the SuperCharger network becomes jammed.

Here in New England, luckily, at this time we do not have this problem.

 

[jeffro01]

This is why pure electric vehicles will never become mainstream. The fact is it will always take too long to recharge, due to both battery physics, and ultimately grid flow capabilities. There's is NO WAY a large portion of the population can drive pure EVs while being able to charge at high speed. The grid is simply not built for that.

If you think today's SCs are overcrowded, then just wait till the Model 3 becomes available...

The future clearly is in gas electric hybrid vehicles (with small batteries, plug-in for better mileage and performance, but able to go on gas alone), like the BMW i8, Porsche 918, etc. With such vehicles, SC would only take a few minutes, and gas + charging can be done at united stations.

I disagree completely and feel your argument is horribly short sighted and completely disregards history. The question I'd ask is, when the first gas cars came out, where did you get gas?

The point is, the network will expand as needed, and while the expansions may not always be as fast as they "should" be, one has to realize there are many dynamics in play here. I think Tesla would help itself immensely if they started partnering with regional convenience store\gas station chains. Now this may be difficult considering the business relationships between the convenience store and their fuel suppliers which by itself could render that idea DOA...

In the end, looking at peak usage at specific stations along a popular route, is nothing more than a predetermined conclusion looking for supporting evidence.

Jeff

 

[ecarfan]

I disagree, emphatically, with the post by @zer0cool. Tesla continues to expand their Supercharger network, it is relatively easy to do, "battery physics" as you put is not a problem since today's Teslas can already charge at a rate of over 300mph of range, and the Tesla onboard vehicle software will get more capable and inform the driver about nearby charging station status in real time and route accordingly.
You forget -- because I suspect you do not own an EV -- that over the vast majority of EV charging occurs at home, some is done at work (and that percentage will increase over time) and only a very small percentage of total Tesla driving is powered by the Supercharger network.

This is why pure electric vehicles will never become mainstream. The fact is it will always take too long to recharge, due to both battery physics, and ultimately grid flow capabilities. There's is NO WAY a large portion of the population can drive pure EVs while being able to charge at high speed. The grid is simply not built for that.

If you think today's SCs are overcrowded, then just wait till the Model 3 becomes available...

The future clearly is in gas electric hybrid vehicles (with small batteries, plug-in for better mileage and performance, but able to go on gas alone), like the BMW i8, Porsche 918, etc. With such vehicles, SC would only take a few minutes, and gas + charging can be done at united stations.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

This is why pure electric vehicles will never become mainstream. The fact is it will always take too long to recharge, due to both battery physics, and ultimately grid flow capabilities. There's is NO WAY a large portion of the population can drive pure EVs while being able to charge at high speed. The grid is simply not built for that.

If you think today's SCs are overcrowded, then just wait till the Model 3 becomes available...

The future clearly is in gas electric hybrid vehicles (with small batteries, plug-in for better mileage and performance, but able to go on gas alone), like the BMW i8, Porsche 918, etc. With such vehicles, SC would only take a few minutes, and gas + charging can be done at united stations.

I couldn't disagree with you more. Your suggestion is in contradiction to Tesla's stated mission.

To the rest, we don't need a reservation system and shouldn't add more complexity to what should be a very simple process. A brute force approach of building more Superchargers seems to be the simplest and best solution.

 

[Brightonuk]

Do we know for sure that the Model 3 will have free use of chargers? As it will be a lower cost than any other Tesla will the "Free for Life" apply.

Not that paying will dissuade people from supercharging (you gotta feed the car)

 

[apacheguy]

To the rest, we don't need a reservation system and shouldn't add more complexity to what should be a very simple process. A brute force approach of building more Superchargers seems to be the simplest and best solution.

Agree, but I would also find it helpful to have access to historical data so I could plan my trip at off-peak times.

 

[David99]

... Currently they have 38 sites in an area only a little bit bigger than Maryland. ...

This! For some reason Tesla fans seem to think it's very hard to set up a network of DC chargers. Truth is, and this example show it, neither the amount of money nor the overhead in terms of permits is large.

 

[cpa]

The Supercharger network currently permits travel only on selected routes even though there are different routes to reach the same destination. From Los Angeles to Sacramento we currently are forced to take Interstate 5, even though SR99 is just as direct. (Let's disregard differences in traffic or road conditions.) Fresno is planned for a SC later this year, and I recall that Bakersfield is slated to get a Supercharger sometime as well. Dublin and Napa SC are under construction, and when they are complete will offer additional choices for Supercharging.

Similarly, US50 is rumored to be getting SC in Placerville and SLT. US101 is being built out north of Marin County with Ukiah, Eureka (?) and Crescent City. It would also make sense to put a SC in Chico or near Oroville to enable travelers to drive SR99 north of Sac instead of Interstate 5 if they choose.

We know from other threads that there are locations where the infrastructure is already in the ground to facilitate another two or four stalls if the need for expansion arises.

We have seen that Tesla has started building Superchargers with closer spacing between existing locations to allow drivers choices to select where and for how long to charge: (Rancho Cucamonga, Barstow, Primm, Las Vegas, St. George) and Ft. Tejon, Burbank (UC), Rancho Cucamonga, Cabazon and Indio.)

It occurs to me that we will see a lot more (mostly) parallel routes covered with Superchargers thereby allowing us a choice of routes. We will not be forced to take the same highway going and coming unless we are constrained for time and must take the most direct and fastest route. We will also see more closely-spaced Superchargers leading into congested areas to spread out demand. We will see selected sites expanded to accommodate more vehicles.

I speak only for myself, but having a choice of highways to drive to reach the same destination (as if driving an ICE) is more fun. I think Tesla's long-range planning will accomplish this in many areas of the US.

 

[brkaus]

I would have to bet that the 3 would have nominal charging cost. Possibly with peak pricing as mentioned above. It's the only way to encourage charge at home.

Also, the better partner in my mind than gas stations is some sort of typically stand alone business like McDonalds or any big restaurant chain. McDonalds are everywhere. They are commercial and would likely have good power. They have coffee and food. And Internet. Many are 24hours. And while they may not be the preferred stopping place for people that own $70-120k cars they are frequented on trips due to being everywhere. Add in the future $35k customers and it's the biggest win.


Who wants to sit at a gas station?

 

[brucet999]

The solution is not that hard. Superchargers aren't that expensive to build and run.

New 6-stall supercharger under construction at Topaz Lake (officially Gardnerville, NV) building permit lists project value as $100,000. Sounds expensive to me.

 

[ddimit]

New 6-stall supercharger under construction at Topaz Lake (officially Gardnerville, NV) building permit value is $100,000. Sounds expensive to me.

Price out a comparable Gas station minus the store. Just the pumps storage tanks, leak detection etc your going to be way north of 100k.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

They are commercial and would likely have good power. They have coffee and food. And Internet. Many are 24hours. And while they may not be the preferred stopping place for people that own $70-120k cars they are frequented on trips due to being everywhere. Add in the future $35k customers and it's the biggest win.


Who wants to sit at a gas station?

Made me think of this answer.
If the gas station is a Buc-Ees, check out how many people happily spend 20-30 minutes there.
I never knew Beaver Nuggets were vegan!

http://www.tripadvisor.com/ShowUser...-r299700130-Buc_ee_s-New_Braunfels_Texas.html

 

[Cottonwood]

Tesla has already shown that they will build more Supercharger Sites and upgrade existing Supercharger Sites to help with congestion.

For example, Hawthorne was very crowded with frequent queues, a year ago. Then Tesla opened Culver City and Redondo about 9 months ago, as well as doubling the number of stalls at Hawthorne. Now we don't hear about congestion at any of those sites.

Fountain Valley was put in to help with San Juan Capistrano, etc...

 

[apacheguy]

Now if only they could do the same along the 5. Both in SoCal and the Central Valley leg especially Tejon.

 

[wdolson]

The potential congestion at SCs as the Model 3 comes along is something I have been concerned about. Tesla is talking about production being more than 10X current levels by 2020 which means there will be millions of Teslas on the road by the early 2020s. Ultimately this is a logistical problem rather than something more difficult like battling with the laws of Physics, but it is a problem.

I think something like 90-95% of all car trips are less than 100 miles, which puts most of the pressure on local charging solutions. People with garages can charge at home, but there is a problem as more people who don't have the ability to charge at home get EVs. The demographic of EV owners now (even the more economical ones like the Leaf) are wealthier than the average and most own homes with some way to charge at home. As EVs become more common, a lot more renters will buy EVs and need some kind of charging solution near home. But home area charging doesn't need to be fast most of the time.

The SCs are for the 5-10% of longer trips. Technology improvements will help some. By the early to mid-2020s Tesla will be selling cars with around twice the range of today's cars. That makes fewer SC stops necessary and puts pressure on destination charging. A larger and larger number of hotels and motels will start offering EV charging, just like that all competed to provide free HBO TV 20 years ago (in the US) and now it's ubiquitous. Most now offer some kind of breakfast because of competitive pressure.

I think reservations at SCs is not going to work very well because people can be delayed. Some have brought up making data about congestion available. Reading this thread I thought another good idea would be to offer a real time congestion number including the number of cars charging and waiting to charge. When SCs get common enough they are 25-50 miles apart (which will happen eventually), it will be easy to decide based on congestion which SC to use. If the closest one is backed up and you have the charge left to make the next one down the road which has nobody waiting, you can pass up the congested one and use the next one. This would go a long way towards balancing out the load on SCs, but it can only be done when there are enough cars on the road to justify having SCs that close together all over the place. It will likely happen first in CA, but it will eventually happen everywhere.

Charging on road trips is really the only serious drawback to EVs that I can see. They can be superior to ICEs in every other area (if the manufacturer does things right). Right now battery chemistries and design limits how fast they can charge. However, there is a tremendous amount of R&D going into those issues right now. Nobody has found the holy grail of battery chemistries yet, but the ability to charge batteries more efficiently is advancing too. By the mid-2020s I expect battery capacities to be close to twice what we see today with charge times close to half what we see today. I could be off on the percentages, but it will be improved in both areas, I am sure of that.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The simple answer would be a fee for anyone who parks at a Supercharger for more than 2 hours. Another idea would be to impose a fee of $10 per hour for anyone who parks at a Supercharger for more than 2 hours. Also, perhaps a system that detects when a non-tesla vehicle is parked in a Tesla spot.

 

[apacheguy]

The simple answer would be a fee for anyone who parks at a Supercharger for more than 2 hours. Another idea would be to impose a fee of $10 per hour for anyone who parks at a Supercharger for more than 2 hours. Also, perhaps a system that detects when a non-tesla vehicle is parked in a Tesla spot.

All in favor!

 

[brkaus]

I've spent 20 minutes at a Buc-Ees. Wish they had tables, makes a mess eating in the car.

500 mile range would move the majority of the issue to destination charging. I certainly wouldn't need a supercharger except maybe 1 trip per year. Unless I was trying to save a buck , just because I could. With longer range and fast charging I would be very tempted to do this one a week or two to cover my driving for "free".

Lower cost interconnected chargers that could cover more spaces at a hotel, ensure all cars were charged by desired time, and minimize the grid (and circuit) load would help destinations.

 

[ecarfan]

New 6-stall supercharger under construction at Topaz Lake (officially Gardnerville, NV) building permit lists project value as $100,000. Sounds expensive to me.

No, that is cheap for a "fueling station" that can handle over 200 cars a day charging 30 minutes each.
A Fuel Cell Vehicle charging station that can handle a few dozen cars a day costs over $1.5 million.

 

[pgiralt]

This is why pure electric vehicles will never become mainstream. The fact is it will always take too long to recharge, due to both battery physics, and ultimately grid flow capabilities. There's is NO WAY a large portion of the population can drive pure EVs while being able to charge at high speed. The grid is simply not built for that.

If you think today's SCs are overcrowded, then just wait till the Model 3 becomes available...

The future clearly is in gas electric hybrid vehicles (with small batteries, plug-in for better mileage and performance, but able to go on gas alone), like the BMW i8, Porsche 918, etc. With such vehicles, SC would only take a few minutes, and gas + charging can be done at united stations.

I couldn't disagree with you more. I don't know what the percentage is, but I'm guessing that a very large percentage of drivers rarely drive more than 300 miles in a day. As EV's battery technology continues to evolve, I think we'll see 500 mile range EV's in the not too distant future. As long as the battery can cover your daily driving needs, these cars will all be charged overnight. If people are charging them during the day too much, it's a simple exercise in price incentives from the power companies to encourage you to charge at night when power is plentiful and they have the excess capacity sitting around anyway.

The only time supercharging really becomes an issue is long distance travel and destination charging. In the short 2 years of Tesla ownership, I've seen the infrastructure grow at an astronomical rate. This is not going to slow down. The more EV's there are, the more superchargers will be built as well as the more destination chargers.

It think the one area that needs some work will be for dense urban areas where drivers don't have dedicated parking spaces. Someone will have to figure out the best way to address this, but there are lots of ways to make this a reality.

I think EV's will become mainstream a lot sooner than people think. If oil prices start going back up again, it will be even more incentive for people to look for alternatives.