SpaceX vs. Everyone - ULA, NG, Boeing, Lockheed, etc.

[JB47394]

But I am wondering; if New Glenn is a success and starts launching next year, how long will Vulcan last? I suppose years, because New Glenn will be busy launching Kuiper sats, and BO may not be able to produce New Glenn vehicles too frequently.

Yes, but if they buy ULA and repurpose the facilities to New Glenn production, then they could be launching one type of vehicle instead of two (despite their many technology similarities). Once Blue Origin is reusing New Glenn boosters, there won't be any point in flying Vulcan. That'll be taken up a notch once they start flying Jarvis second stages, which are intended to be reused as well.

So I'd say that they're hoping to buy the Vulcan launch contracts and will fly Vulcan only until New Glenn is more cost-effective.

 

[bxr140]

In this case, Blue Origin buying ULA makes a lot of sense for the sake of efficiency.

Yes, and the corollary to more profit on Vulcan because motors are at cost is that for the same profit they can reduce price and get closer to F9.

There’s also the total lift capacity that’s a big near term upside. A major conversation with any non-SX launch provider is always “when can I launch”; F9’s launch cadence makes that all but a non-issue. While NG+Vulcan won’t get to F9 cadence, the combination will ease “if you can barely squeeze me into your manifest why wouldn’t I just go with SX” concerns. Blue may even try to abstract a launch services product a bit to “delivering mass to orbit”.

It’s the long term competing products that doesn’t make sense, but perhaps that’s so long in the future that the Vulcan backlog kind of pays for itself regardless.

 

[ecarfan]

So I'd say that they're hoping to buy the Vulcan launch contracts and will fly Vulcan only until New Glenn is more cost-effective.

Well, could be, but with Jeff’s resources what is the point of paying a few billion for Vulcan’s launch contracts? I know the Berger article notes a few synergies, but are they worth the price? How much money can BO make selling a handful of engines for Vulcan? How many Vulcans will ever be built? A few. And for a few billion BO could build a lot of production facilities.

 

[nativewolf]

I am glad to see the ULA meet a late death in any rate. That contract was a side effect of Sen Shelby - a corrupt pig if there ever was one. Personally did more to kill NASA than any other person. Just a pork barrel hog.

 

[JB47394]

Well, could be, but with Jeff’s resources what is the point of paying a few billion for Vulcan’s launch contracts? I know the Berger article notes a few synergies, but are they worth the price? How much money can BO make selling a handful of engines for Vulcan? How many Vulcans will ever be built? A few. And for a few billion BO could build a lot of production facilities.

They can either buy ULA and gain their people, connections, contracts, facilities and so forth, or they can compete against ULA for people, connections, contracts, facilities and so forth. For $2-3 billion, that seems like a pretty obvious choice.

 

[adiggs]

Sorry for the bump - I have nothing to add. Just noticed that this thread, that has formerly been one of the most active and interesting threads in this forum, has fallen all the way back to page 3. I find that interesting

 

[scaesare]

"Everyone" else needs to get with it to give us something to talk about vs. SpaceX

 

[HVM]

 

[ecarfan]

ULA’s number is close to a rounding error.

 

[scaesare]

Watch the final Delta IV Heavy launch today:

Despite not being a big fan of ULA's recent actions... one has to recognize this has been a workhorse heavy launch vehicle (with thoroughbred pricing) , for years now. That, and it's fun to watch its fire-show at ignition...

 

[scaesare]

Delayed... stream looks to be starting in about an hour.

 

[HVM]

CCLS redline fault = Out of family reading ; P

 

[scaesare]

Yeah.... scrub. Next attempt tomorrow 1:37 EST

 

[HVM]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773430928347390016

"The launch of a ULA #DeltaIVHeavy carrying the #NROL70 mission for the @NatReconOfc was scrubbed due to an issue with the gaseous nitrogen pipeline which provides pneumatic pressure to the launch vehicle systems. The team initiated operations to secure the vehicle."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773431882052440168

"We exceeded the limit for winds and had to call a hold with a 4 min recycle During the hold, a Cape GN2 pipeline ground pump failed causing a scrubSee you tomorrow"

 

[scaesare]

And, according to their latest blog entry they need more time to sort it out:

(Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Fla., March 28, 2024) – The launch of a United Launch Alliance Delta IV Heavy carrying the NROL-70 mission for the National Reconnaissance Office was scrubbed today due to an issue with a liquid pump failure on the gaseous nitrogen pipeline which provides pneumatic pressure to the launch vehicle systems.

The team continues to troubleshoot the pipeline and more time is needed to instill confidence in the system. We will continue to work with our customer to confirm our next launch attempt and a new date will be provided upon resolution.

And Berger thinks that's not before Monday:

The launch is now unlikely to take place before at least Monday.

 

[ecarfan]

Russia has a plan to “restore” its dominant position in the global launch market​

Eric Berger’s analysis of Russia’s fantasy plans to compete in space.

 

[scaesare]

Russia has a plan to “restore” its dominant position in the global launch market​

Eric Berger’s analysis of Russia’s fantasy plans to compete in space.

Berger mentions Russia resting on it's laurels with decades-old technology.... it reminds me the RD-180, which even the US relied on. A pretty advanced engine in that it was a staged oxygen-rich design designed close to probably 30 yrs ago...

 

[JB47394]

Berger mentions Russia resting on it's laurels with decades-old technology....

Until SpaceX, everyone was resting on their laurels. After the space race to the Moon, nobody had a use for space other than satellites. I would argue that we still don't, despite Elon's plan for the whole "multiplanetary species" thing. If SpaceX providing cheaper access to space doesn't develop into anything, I'd say that we'll be limited to Earth until somebody comes up with some magic dingus that makes access to other planets trivial.

Although one wild card is China. They may trigger another space race, this time to build Moon colonies - for reasons of national prestige. Certainly we can't allow the Chinese to one-up us with respect to Doing Stuff On The Moon. Cue "resting on one's laurels" comments.

 

[scaesare]

Until SpaceX, everyone was resting on their laurels. After the space race to the Moon, nobody had a use for space other than satellites. I would argue that we still don't, despite Elon's plan for the whole "multiplanetary species" thing. If SpaceX providing cheaper access to space doesn't develop into anything, I'd say that we'll be limited to Earth until somebody comes up with some magic dingus that makes access to other planets trivial.

Although one wild card is China. They may trigger another space race, this time to build Moon colonies - for reasons of national prestige. Certainly we can't allow the Chinese to one-up us with respect to Doing Stuff On The Moon. Cue "resting on one's laurels" comments.

I'm sure that's true to a great degree... the US wasn't exactly a hotbed of innovation either. But the general feel I get is that is that the "dominant position" was back in the USSR days, and since it's dissolution, a lot of that infrastructure and technology has languished... the Burans at the Baikonur Cosmodrome come to mind... along with old warehouse stores of engines found, dusted off, and sold.

Just looked it up and there's RD-19X engines that have been designed/built in the last 10-15 years, so there's that. And quite frankly your point about everyone else is probably spot on... NASA and it's traditional suppliers don't have an abundance new to show for the last decade....

 

[ecarfan]

Although one wild card is China. They may trigger another space race, this time to build Moon colonies - for reasons of national prestige. Certainly we can't allow the Chinese to one-up us with respect to Doing Stuff On The Moon. Cue "resting on one's laurels" comments.

I expect that to happen. China will definitely put taikonauts on the Moon, maybe by 2030. Never underestimate the desire for American politicians to appeal to “national prestige” to make themselves look patriotic, whipping up their voters, which then loosens Congressional purse strings. Robotic planetary science missions will get axed and funds diverted to building a lunar base. I don’t want that to happen but nationalistic rivalries are unstoppable.

I also expect that within 4 years SLS will be cancelled and Starship will be employed, as by then the obvious massive cost savings will be an irresistible lure given the very high cost of lunar base infrastructure.