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SpaceX Falcon 9 FT launch - SES 9 - SLC-40

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Is this just teething problems, or will "Deep Cryo LOX" always be this challenging?

Here is an analysis of the gains from densification pulled from a discussion about it:

Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - ORBCOMM-2 - RTF (Return To Flight) DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #1036 on: Today at 08:13 AM »
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Quote from: Dante80 on Today at 01:29 AM
More importantly, given the temperatures listed above, could someone make an educated guess about the amount of fuel and oxidizer carried?

That's not an easy question! For the RP-1 density I used two sources:

http://kinetics.nist.gov/RealFuels/macccr/macccr2008/Bruno2.pdf
http://atlasbases.homestead.com/Analysis_of_RP-1_Fuel_Density_-_SAWE0323.pdf

The first report gives a density range from 0.8236 to 0.8436 kg/L at -6.7 C. The second report gives a range from 0.8176 to 0.8265 kg/L. At 21.1 C, the range for the second report is 0.7968 to 0.8056 kg/L. The 0.8056 kg/L density is close to other values I have seen, so I believe the second report is more valid with the value of 0.8256 kg/L being very close to the low end of the first report. Thus, I will assume the following values

dfl = 0.8056 kg/L (low fuel density at 21.1 C)
dfh = 0.8265 kg/L (high fuel density at -6.7 C)

For the LOX density, I used the equation given in Section 3.3 of

http://www.nist.gov/srd/upload/jpcrd423.pdf

I get the following densities (pascal program attached).

dol = 1.1420 kg/L (LOX low density at -183.0 C)
doh = 1.2539 kg/L (LOX high density at -206.7 C)

The Merlin 1C mixture ratio is 2.2.

http://iacse.commercial-space.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/iac-08d213.pdf

malu5531 worked out a ratio of 2.36 for the Merlin 1D+. I couldn't find a source for the actual ratio.

SpaceX: Merlin 1D Updates and Discussion Thread 2

Assuming a ratio of 2.2 we get

dl = 1.0102 kg/L (low density)
dh = 1.0795 kg/L (high density)

For a ratio of 2.36 we get

dl = 1.0158 kg/L (low density)
dh = 1.0867 kg/L (high density)

That gives increases of 6.86% and 6.98%, respectively. According to

Falcon 9 v1.1 Rockets

the v1.1 first stage propellant mass is 395.7 t. Thus, the increase in propellant mass could range from 27.1 to 27.6 t.

The second stage was already reported to have a 10% increase in propellant volume.

SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 Data Sheet

The second stage v1.1 has a propellant mass of 92.67 t. Thus, the increase would be from 16.25 to 16.38 t.

The overall gain is apparently around 10%. The superchilled LOX is tricky to work with. The overall sentiment from the knowledgeable people at NASA Spaceflight Now forum is that this is early growing pains and that SpaceX will work at it until they get it right.

Even though there was a large window for launch in this situation, if there is any delay, they have to completely detank the fuel and perform a complete refuel of supercooled fuel. That would have taken longer than the time window allowed.

So be more ready for lots of scrubs until SpaceX gets the process down.

This is a particularly tricky one because there is such a slim margin for error. They need every drop of fuel and they had a little more leeway on the Orbcomm 2 launch than they have for this one. SpaceX is doing what they do, which is push the envelope as far as it can go.
 
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Launch update from the SpaceX website today. A launch window has been announced for an attempt tomorrow (Sunday) evening. The weather looks to be excellent for either a Sunday or Monday launch.

Date

Sun, Feb 28 2016 6:46 PM EST — Sun, Feb 28 2016 8:23 PM EST
 
Admittedly I haven't read through this entire thread, but is anyone down here in Orlando? Hubby and I just debarked from a cruise ship, and I fully admit to crossing fingers for launch delays while we were at sea. So I am uber excited that we may get a chance to see a launch tonight. Am thinking of trying the NASA causeway. Suggestions on how early to show up?
 
Admittedly I haven't read through this entire thread, but is anyone down here in Orlando? Hubby and I just debarked from a cruise ship, and I fully admit to crossing fingers for launch delays while we were at sea. So I am uber excited that we may get a chance to see a launch tonight. Am thinking of trying the NASA causeway. Suggestions on how early to show up?

Good luck. Don't get too excited since SpaceX and SES are already saying the backup date is tomorrow. I hope the cruise was a lot of fun.
 
Yaaah - but "Range Safety Issue" is what happens when a craft - naval or air - shows up WHERE IT'S NOT SUPPOSED TO BE!!!!!!!!!!!! Grrrrrrrr......


(cross-posted w/the above)