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@thebanker, see, regardless of lifestyle or political views, Elon and crew are creating a future that's better for all of us. I believe Solarcity with Tesla energy storage will get you to that off grid reality sooner then anyone else. That's why I say, you can go off grid, but you'll have to forgo the ability to buy and sell energy when you need to. In your case, you don't give a rip, so no worries there...
The current utility grid will ultimately become just a series of wires that connect other DG(industrial, commercial, residential)energy producers/consumers...
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So, you're saying no, Sunpower doesn't have a product that can compete with Solarcity. Thanks for showing your support for my point here.
The current utility grid will ultimately become just a series of wires that connect other DG(industrial, commercial, residential)energy producers/consumers...
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So, you're saying no, Sunpower doesn't have a product that can compete with Solarcity. Thanks for showing your support for my point here.
If you live off the grid you probably want to add a small vertical wind generator or two for the winter and cloudy days. If you supplement with wind then the battery storage becomes less of an issue. Why spend all that extra money on storage when you can add some wind power to the mix? Off the grid I'd be heating with wood as much as possible to help keep energy needs lower. Battery technology will continue to improve so over time we'll all have more freedom to get rid of the grid. If you like living on the grid then pray netmetering stays in place. As corrupt as our politicians are in this country, I don't expect that netmetering will last forever. They don't want you to be truly free so they might talk a good game now about letting everyone move to solar but as soon as their pockets stop getting full of your cash they'll figure out new ways to tax that money out of your pockets. Living off the grid isn't 100% foolproof to get them out of your life but it sure makes it a lot harder for them to bother you when you're living off the beaten path. I imagine millions of people want to live off the grid but feel they are stuck. Maybe I'm just wishful thinking but I really think technology is going to help people sprawl out to areas where they truly want to spend their time.
Originally Posted by futureproof
"No other solar company has or will have a PV+storage product that can compete."
Guess I'm saying I don't know, and I suspect neither do you. But I'm not the one making the claim in the face of other possibilities. I guess @futureproof, only the future-is-proof
@thebanker, like I've said before, net metering will evolve. Utilities will buy and sell your energy from DG sources. The major complaint from utilities with DG is they have no way to aggregate it. If they had a way to aggregate it they would love to go full tilt into it. Economic, scaled storage(that you can network) is the answer. The only company that is preparing to scale in the millions is Tesla Motors and Solarcity. No one else has the capability to scale to this level and that's the moat Solarcity is building with Tesla. Economies of scale coupled with brand recognition equals real trouble for the rest of the competition.
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Economies of scale is a very big indicator of competitive edge. Even CEO Tom Werner acknowledged that in the article you posted. If economies of scale is a significant competitive edge, and no one other then Tesla/Solarcity has or is developing these economies of scale, then it is logical to conclude they are ahead of the competition. I've checked everyone else that offers energy storage, no one even comes close.
Solarcity started its pilot program over three years ago. They deployed a commercial $0 lease storage product in US in December. They have a direct supplier relationship with Tesla which is on track to produce between 2.1-3GW of ENERGY STORAGE(60kwh-85kwh packs) this year alone. Solarcity has expectations to expand its residential storage into the thousands of US customers through the second half of this year.
Sunpower is planning to start a pilot program... in Australia... at some point this year...
You starting to see the difference now?
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Economies of scale is a very big indicator of competitive edge. Even CEO Tom Werner acknowledged that in the article you posted. If economies of scale is a significant competitive edge, and no one other then Tesla/Solarcity has or is developing these economies of scale, then it is logical to conclude they are ahead of the competition. I've checked everyone else that offers energy storage, no one even comes close.
Solarcity started its pilot program over three years ago. They deployed a commercial $0 lease storage product in US in December. They have a direct supplier relationship with Tesla which is on track to produce between 2.1-3GW of ENERGY STORAGE(60kwh-85kwh packs) this year alone. Solarcity has expectations to expand its residential storage into the thousands of US customers through the second half of this year.
Sunpower is planning to start a pilot program... in Australia... at some point this year...
You starting to see the difference now?
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I agree with the economies of scale beating the competition. But having the right partner like TSLA is what makes the difference regardless of size. Let's not forget the unknowns that are still growing inside Elon's head. This guy might think of something in the future that really blows out the competition. Who's to say he won't reinvent the solar panel??? We really don't know what he's capable of engineering but we do know that tons of engineers would love to go work for him. So not only do we have the genius of Elon working for us but his fame is going to attract other engineers to help him do amazing things in the future. I do not know if he's an easy man to work for or if he inspires others to succeed or not. I hope he is both. He's definitely young enough that he will be around a long time to help see his creations unfold.
I do not know enough about the networking to comment but I do know as a former IT guy that networking in general provides efficiency in the workplace. If there is a way to network an entire neighborhood to allow sharing among the homes that would be great. My first question that comes to mind is if a person is using solar and they have excess capacity (sun is shining) to feed back into the network, I imagine everyone else with panels will have excess capacity too. So the network would have to be combined with huge batteries in a central location to tap into. Transmitting power along the lines loses power. So if the power comes off my panels, goes into the grid and into storage there is loss of power due to conversion. I guess it's more efficient than power traveling 10-20 miles from the main source.
In an already established neighborhood with no space remaining for a battery location I don't see how this would work. If there are any links to a presentation on networking power I'd take a peek.
I don't see networking power as such a great thing if the utilities are still controlling it. I don't trust them at all. I'd love to see the economics on any project where Elon would hope to make some money other than just selling batteries.
I do not know enough about the networking to comment but I do know as a former IT guy that networking in general provides efficiency in the workplace. If there is a way to network an entire neighborhood to allow sharing among the homes that would be great. My first question that comes to mind is if a person is using solar and they have excess capacity (sun is shining) to feed back into the network, I imagine everyone else with panels will have excess capacity too. So the network would have to be combined with huge batteries in a central location to tap into. Transmitting power along the lines loses power. So if the power comes off my panels, goes into the grid and into storage there is loss of power due to conversion. I guess it's more efficient than power traveling 10-20 miles from the main source.
In an already established neighborhood with no space remaining for a battery location I don't see how this would work. If there are any links to a presentation on networking power I'd take a peek.
I don't see networking power as such a great thing if the utilities are still controlling it. I don't trust them at all. I'd love to see the economics on any project where Elon would hope to make some money other than just selling batteries.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Mythbuster alert:
I have a PV system and I'm evaluating 3 alternatives for going off grid. SCTY is not present in my state. All I want to say is that SCTY doesn't have a patent on the idea; they may have an advantage in being able to offer a package but it's something that can be duplicated. IOW, if I can duplicate with two phone calls what SCTY is offering then that's not sustainable advantage.
The SCTY/Tesla battery configuration is only back-up for certain limited house functions; it isn't whole house storage (yet!). To go off-grid the homeowner needs to have enough stored power for a fully functioning house through the night and, depending on geographic location, enough stored power to last for 2-3 days. Wind power as back-up is nonsense unless uou can guarantee it will be windy on the days it isn't sunny.
The current TSLA battery back-up is too expensive to cover whole house needs right now. I'm hopeful that the cost will come down considerably in the next couple of years and make it more feasible. SCTY's advantage may come in an exclusive deal with the new battery gigafactory.
I have a PV system and I'm evaluating 3 alternatives for going off grid. SCTY is not present in my state. All I want to say is that SCTY doesn't have a patent on the idea; they may have an advantage in being able to offer a package but it's something that can be duplicated. IOW, if I can duplicate with two phone calls what SCTY is offering then that's not sustainable advantage.
The SCTY/Tesla battery configuration is only back-up for certain limited house functions; it isn't whole house storage (yet!). To go off-grid the homeowner needs to have enough stored power for a fully functioning house through the night and, depending on geographic location, enough stored power to last for 2-3 days. Wind power as back-up is nonsense unless uou can guarantee it will be windy on the days it isn't sunny.
The current TSLA battery back-up is too expensive to cover whole house needs right now. I'm hopeful that the cost will come down considerably in the next couple of years and make it more feasible. SCTY's advantage may come in an exclusive deal with the new battery gigafactory.
Does Apple have a patent/copyright on iOS? Does Goggle have a patent/copyright on Android?
Might Solarcity have protection on its energy management systems??? I know they own plenty of patents on mounting systems thanks to Zep...
Again, I think everyone can go off grid soon as energy storage tech costs come down with scale... it's just a matter of being able to buy and sell. If you don't care about that, then it doesn't matter. Can't discount convenience to the mass market. Have to remember, there was a reason the current utility structure developed the way it did in the first place...
NigelM
Recovering Member
Irrelevant IMO to the point that SCTY offers storage with PV; there are other storage (and back-up!) options out there right now.
Can SCTY come up with a better option? I don't know for certain, but I think they might.
I think any battery back-up is too expensive to cover whole house needs right now, if you're going to go off grid and expect high reliability. In round numbers, you should have no less than 3 days' energy use in storage; in a typical American home, that means about 90 kWh, roughly the same as the larger Model S battery pack. With power electronics, housing, etc. you're looking at something north of $25,000. Such a figure can only be rationalized (on economics alone) if grid interconnection isn't an option. The more logical solution, to my way of thinking, is some lesser amount of batteries (for normal use) plus a conventional backup generator to handle longer outages--preferably one that uses natural gas/LP. A good generator costs <$4,000, far less than the equivalent in batteries.
I'd have to disagree with you... management system/operating system is what makes the entire PV+storage work. Even in the article @kenliles posted above, Sunpower CEO relates the current Pv business to the landline/mobile phone transformation... in fact, Mr. Werner sounded like he was reading from SolarCity's investors brief(slide 5) (http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...4-4259533d473e/SCTY_Investor_Presentation.pdf) on the entire subject to be honest...
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Makes sense.
I would imagine SCTY might have patents covering their solution from Tesla. I don't think that or the scale will afford a stand-alone market position. The scale of the market for this solution is several years away. The scale of the GF will also scale other battery manufacturing pricing (common sub components). I think other solutions are in the works with this in mind. SCTY will have some of the best customer acquisition scaling. SPWR may be better vertically integrated (similar to a Tesla for its markets) producing a better or matched cost leverage, including patents that include higher efficiency solutions. I don't think an investment in SCTY with assumption of monopolistic control of PVC-storage is wise and so I won't partake on that assumption.
I am long SPWR, JASO, SCTY, CSIQ, JKS currently
I think solarcity is module brand agnostic, so panel efficiencies are probably welcomed. If less panels have to be put on roofs, labor costs/time to complete will go down as well. Would be interesting to know what the ratio of panel efficiency to install costs is? If there is a strong and proportional/disproportional correlation....
I've also inferred some potential for solarcity/tesla to possibly get into the inverter business (JB Straubel talks late last year) Inverter innovation is important to both Solarcity and Tesla, so this might not be too much of a stretch. Again, only issue is scaling, so might not be something they want to do by themselves... I guess we'll see. Zep acquisition did create a manufacturing arm of Solarcity so anything is possible...
And you are completely ignoring that SPWR has the backing of Total who happens to own several battery companies in its portfolio.
Tesla is using lithium ion batteries and those are far from the best solution in household energy storage. There are a lot more promising technologies in household battery storage, such as flow batteries, that will be significantly cheaper than what Tesla uses (but they couldn't use those other technologies in cars).
I think that's part of the point I am making. SPWR makes the best panels (and not for sale to SCTY), includes the profit of using its own panels where SCTY must profitize that component, controls it's own converters and management system, and via Total has access to many more battery solutions, and via Total has access to scaling and financial capital SCTY does not. It may not produce the better solution, but it foolish to argue those facts don't constitute one potential competitor. I think you are trying to convince yourself of your own conclusions, which carry valid points but don't necessarily conclude to the same futureproof.
The fact you recognize Werner statements as taken from SCTY play book shows promise. Suggest further looks might shed light that SCTY has not been the only one working on that shared vision, but may only be the most vocal about the work they are doing.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Mod Note: a number of posts got quarantined; and yes I've taken to using a chainsaw instead of a scalpel. A number of folks also received negative reputation points for wasting moderator time.
Last warning, if you all want to go onto auto-moderation keep going like this.
Last warning, if you all want to go onto auto-moderation keep going like this.
NigelM
Recovering Member
You're free to disagree but the truth is that I had battery back-up on a previous system almost 5 years ago. It's not complicated and back then they were lead acid boat batteries. Lithium Gel batteries are quite common already but as has been mentioned many times the battery cost/life is the issue. Management and switching/operating is pretty simple.
I have a full house (LP) generator as back-up (as Robert.Boston referred to up-thread) but I don't want to go off grid with that so right now I'm net metering; but, I'm also evaluating custom battery production, Lithium Gel batteries and hydrogen fuel cell to take me off-grid. Operating system is the easy part. I'm also wondering if I hang out long enough whether Tesla batteries will become a better option for me.
The SPWR CEO isn't referring to back-up in that interview you quoted.
First off, don't know what made you think I was referring to your system, but in the system Solarcity and what Sunpower is looking to do, does most certainly rely on software in the function/management of their PV+storage systems.
Not sure what quote I made you are referring to, but here's a couple anyway:
"RE: Last time I talked to you was about home energy management systems, do you still see a prospect of that? TW: We are doing a pilot in Australia, we are not quite ready to go into the specifics. It is primarily a storage pilot, but it makes a whole lot of sense here."
And here's one from the link on "home energy management systems" the interviewer provided in his question:
"SunPower also believes is it inevitable that storage and other home management systems will be included, possibly even extending to electric vehicles. How that all fits together remains to be seen, and will likely vary between regions and markets, depending on local policies, incentives, market design and solar resources. “What we are not saying is here is the model, you have a house , solar, and storage, and home energy management and we’ve solved it,” Werner says. “What we are saying is that those are things that we likely to offer in combinations that are not defined yet.”
update: that first quote is directly from the CEO interview @kenliles posted. The second quote is from an embedded article within the CEO interview @kenliles posted. So, you're not correct in your statement. That's the truth. That is fact.
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HECO pursues energy storage system so it can take more PV - Hawaii News - Honolulu Star-Advertiser
"Energy Storage is one of the key missing elements in integrating high levels of renewable energy from variable sources like solar and wind," said Colton Ching, HECO vice president for electricity delivery.
not sure if Solarcity/tesla would put in a bid for such a large system, but hey you never know... To add maybe this is an opportunity to move into Hawaii with residential storage.
"Energy Storage is one of the key missing elements in integrating high levels of renewable energy from variable sources like solar and wind," said Colton Ching, HECO vice president for electricity delivery.
not sure if Solarcity/tesla would put in a bid for such a large system, but hey you never know... To add maybe this is an opportunity to move into Hawaii with residential storage.
NigelM
Recovering Member
If you recall (you can check up-thread) the discussion was about claiming SCTY had a competitive advantage by offering storage with residential systems. That's why I quoted you in my post:
My point was that storage in it's current offering is not a competitive advantage, so I wrote:
I also noted that you referred in that quote on the same subject to the landline/mobile phone reference. If you read that article then you'll see that comment was not made in connection with energy storage.
It's the one embedded in my post and re-embedded in this one a few lines back but I'm happy to re-post it for the sake of clarity [my bold]:
Now you referred to a different quote entirely and said:
So you see I was correct. Please don't imply I wasn't being truthful when your own quotes are there in black and white and clearly embedded in my reply to you.
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