SolarCity (SCTY)

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Halting net metering would be a very dumb idea, and might even be illegal.

I think this is what Lyndon meant when he said "customers removing themselves from the grid is a bad policy outcome". If Net Metering caps the ability of customers to sell energy to the grid, it would probably result in higher energy costs for non-solar customers, and solar customers and companies. However, Tesla Powerwall could make any damage caused by a reduction in net metering insignificant, and would make a mess of the grid.

Why can't the United States implement policies such as those that are about to be introduced in China? It would make a lot of sense if the Federal government introduced certain policies that steered the private sector towards an outcome that will be beneficial for everyone, including the utilities.If the utilities don't adapt, millions of people, and perhaps the United States economy will suffer.

Obama is trying to do this by offering incentives to states that comply with or surpass the federal "guidelines", but the outcome is going to be a bit of a mess for certain states that refuse to understand the actions required to ensure a positive outcome for people in all states.

As more people use Solar Panels, rates will decline for everyone. Anyone arguing that rates are increasing in the short term, is missing the point that in the long term, they will be significantly lower, because of the additional power being fed into the grid, the reduced cost of obtaining the power, and the increased supply, along wit h increased efficiency of systems.

"Legislation to make net metering illegal or more costly has been introduced in nearly two dozen state houses since 2013.
Some of the proposals were virtual copies of model legislation drafted two years ago by the American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC, a nonprofit organization with financial ties to billionaire industrialists Charles and David Koch."

Utilities Wage Campaign Against Rooftop Solar

China is investing hundreds of billions in clean energy production, and in its agricultural sector. The United States is barely investing a fraction of this amount, and its Agricultural sector has a number of big problems :crying:

Let's pray the Banks and Corporations, that have hundreds of billions of dollars, committing hundreds of billions of dollars to funding for clean energy projects is a sign that they realize the opportunity posed by the lack of government action, and are prepared to act, SOON.

Renewable-Energy Investments At $175 Billion So Far This Year As China Solar Spending Soars

 

[jhm]

Off-Grid Electric : https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/solarcity-leads-7m-round-in-off-grid-solar-firm

Thanks! This article mentions that 1.4B people are without access to modern energy services. This could be as much as 350M households. In my previous post, I looked at 3.5 M household in Bangladesh with off-grid solar. From there I speculated that the global market may be 10X. But that's just 35 M families. So I'm still off by an order of 10. Thus, 60 GWh annual capacity would take ten years to get 600 GWh of storage to this market. Moreover, this is only about 2 kWh storage per family without grid access. So this is still pretty meager provision of energy. Where the combination of solar, batteries, and lighting begins to deliver a 20% return for these families, it stimulates growth in local economies. Families will want and be able to demand additional solar panels and batteries. So this market could sustain double digit growth for decades past the initial tipping point. Musk figures that about 200 TWh of storage is needed to virtually eliminate fossil fuels. In a world with 8 B people and 2B households, this is 25 kWh per person or 100 kWh per household. Making sure that the poorest 1.4B persons have at least 0.5 kWh per person is a very modest provision, but the economic growth rate of doing this could be on order of 20%. So the boost to all economies qould be unprecedented. Conversely, the cost of not doing so means ongoing use of fossil fuels and climate change with attendant dislocation of populations, wars and famine.

 

[jhm]

The boom in wind energy couldn’t be coming at a better time - The Washington Post

Wind is now at 66 GW in US as the price continues to come down. Utility wind PPA is now at 2.35 c/kWh. Distributed wind hits 1 GW.

I wonder is SolarCity has any interest in distributed wind. Particularly if they can gain ground in commercial solar, then distributed wind would be a nice adjunct. They could round out the package for better 24 hour power generation and increase the value of adding batteries to the package.

 

[winfield100]

The boom in wind energy couldn’t be coming at a better time - The Washington Post

Wind is now at 66 GW in US as the price continues to come down. Utility wind PPA is now at 2.35 c/kWh. Distributed wind hits 1 GW.

I wonder is SolarCity has any interest in distributed wind. Particularly if they can gain ground in commercial solar, then distributed wind would be a nice adjunct. They could round out the package for better 24 hour power generation and increase the value of adding batteries to the package.

terawatthours consumed yearly last 10 years of wind from BP statistical review of world energy. NOTE:
doubling every 2 years appx

2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
14.3	18.0	26.9	34.8	55.9	74.6	95.6	121.4	142.2	169.5	183.6

 

[jhm]

terawatthours consumed yearly last 10 years of wind from BP statistical review of world energy. NOTE:
doubling every 2 years appx

2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
14.3	18.0	26.9	34.8	55.9	74.6	95.6	121.4	142.2	169.5	183.6

Nice data. I notice that in the last 4 years it has doubled. It seems the frequency of doubling has been slowing down. This is also what I expect for utility solar. So new wind and solar are both much cheaper than new CCNG. But the problem is that the utilities need to shut down existing capacity to make room for new capacity. For the next few years this allows NG to command 2 to 5 c/kWh premium over wind and solar. Also gas is still needed for peak power. But as stationary storage is added, the premium for dispatchability will decline. So we may see faster retirement rates of fossil plants, and installation of wind can accelerate again. If distributed wind were stronger, perhaps this would push utilities to accelerate their wind acquisition. Without this competition utilities can run the clock down on wind even though it is incredibly cheap.

 

[Noble Ninja]

08/09/15
Interesting, I doubt you will see a time to buy too much lower than where it is. I guess it could fall to 48 but It has held for quite awhile above that level and the fundamentals are so strong right now I think were near the low.

Just hit a low of $48.75 today.

 

[hirox]

Solar stocks keep going down.
Today:

Solarcity down 4,65%
First solar down 3,81%
Sunedison down 14,37%

 

[blakegallagher]

Just hit a low of $48.75 today.

Yep, pretty suprising were here, if I was not losing shares to margin calls I would be scooping up 100 strike price 2017 leaps.

I think it was Foghat who mentioned up thread that solar city has an investor day this week but I can not seem to find it now. Anyone have details on when that is

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

@jhm

Belated thanks for your post #1856 ~four days ago. It was very generous of you.

 

[blakegallagher]

Interesting, I doubt you will see a time to buy too much lower than where it is. I guess it could fall to 48 but It has held for quite awhile above that level and the fundamentals are so strong right now I think were near the low. Arizona is a large market though, Not sure how that would effect the stock if installs there come to a halt.

Thanks for keeping us up to date Foghat.

Guess I was wrong again on solar city lol, We are now below 48! Pretty crazy, I am either very wrong or this is a very good opportunity to buy. I am actually about to head out to try and make some sales so I can pick up some more leaps and or keep my account above a level where it all gets liquidated ! hah. GL all Longs

https://plus.google.com/+solarcity/posts/er5DTW3miYA

Here is a post by solar city claiming 1.3 billion people without power and some details how they are installing a solar system for every 1 MW installed.

SolarCity lighting African schools with solar — free of charge - San Francisco Chronicle

and a very cool , feel good article about what Solar City is doing to help better the world! Worth noting they are installing a battery pack with each system that can store 4 hours of electricity. These articles are helpful to read when my account is looking so pitiful !

 

[Noble Ninja]

Guess I was wrong again on solar city lol, We are now below 48! Pretty crazy, I am either very wrong or this is a very good opportunity to buy. I am actually about to head out to try and make some sales so I can pick up some more leaps and or keep my account above a level where it all gets liquidated ! hah. GL all Longs

Yeah, it went down to a low of $46.15 so far today. About ~22% in the past week ever since TSLA's ER, but down on no apparent bad news (or any news). This is the fifth day downwards, so I'm hoping we finally see a bounce to the green by closing, especially when you look at the Bollinger Band (BB), as today's low is way below the BB low of $49.15

 

[jhm]

@jhm

Belated thanks for your post #1856 ~four days ago. It was very generous of you.

Thank you, It was a good opportunity to consolidate the argument.

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah, it went down to a low of $46.15 so far today. About ~22% in the past week ever since TSLA's ER, but down on no apparent bad news (or any news). This is the fifth day downwards, so I'm hoping we finally see a bounce to the green by closing, especially when you look at the Bollinger Band (BB), as today's low is way below the BB low of $49.15

I bought more shares below $47. Now the stock is moving into the green. I wonder if somebody realized that this stock is way over sold.

The devaluing of the Chinese Yuan has been dragging down the whole market, but for SolarCity this should reduce the cost of panels they source from China. So it helps the company, even if it frightens investors.

 

[mikes_fsd]

I find this comment disturbing:

Zachary Shahan - Top Commenter to: Marion Meads • 3 hours ago
We have a piece coming that you will love, and vindicates much of what you have said (regarding SolarCity).

this is for the article posted here: New York Governor Takes Part In Topping Off Ceremony For SolarCity Gigafactory | CleanTechnica

 

[blakegallagher]

that piece was pretty positive, Just finished listening to the audio there, mostly a lot of politicians talking about what a good job they are doing but It was great to hear that the CEO of Silevo said this was the fastest construction project he had ever seen !

Why does that comment worry you? Or is it relative to another negative commenter?

edit: Ahh yes just read the comments, sounds like another hit piece might be on the way. Not to worried as people have been wrong and yelling about it for a long time. Although I never enjoy bad press.

 

[Foghat]

I find this comment disturbing:

this is for the article posted here: New York Governor Takes Part In Topping Off Ceremony For SolarCity Gigafactory | CleanTechnica

Interesting that Marion mentions going with "wee" solarhome for the install. Solarhome spams any and all articles with Solarcity mentioned in it. They attempt to misguide and mislead about Solarcity in order to generate leads and sales. I think a few teslamotors forum members have "outted" solarhome employees/tactics in this thread somewhere. Zachary saying he has something that will support solarhome is clearly publishing something of suspicious validity.

the stock drop is related to what is happening with buffet/nv energy in Nevada and Koch/Aps utitlity in Arizona today. This is full on war against distributed solar right now. State sponsored for profit monopoly vs. competitve market distributed solar... For retail energy sales.

oklahoma proposes to reduce net metering, but only has 240 net metering residents. Not to mention a nat gas fracking boom that has contributed to more then 800 3.0 earthquakes last year (more then all recorded earthquakes in the history of Oklahoma combined) causing $billions in damages to residents and businesses.

Michigan wants to erode net metering, but only .0015% of energy sales come from net metering customers. It's funny how oil drilling in Michigan has boomed in recent years, especially when you don't need a single permit to build an oil derick on your propty, but have to wait months to turn on a roof top system.

Clearly not an issue of solar not paying their fair share, but rather about stifling completion for retail electricity market.

 

[Foghat]

Solaredge sales to Solarcity equate to 20% of ALL solaredge sales. Solareedge just reported they are introducing a new 3rd generation inverter that will cut a 100kw job from 5 inverters to 3 inverters. They expect this to cut costs in a significant way. Solarcity recently activated a $1bln dollar fund for commercial installs. I conclude this 3rd generation inverter will be used and will significantly reduce install times and costs.

solaredge also said they have a 4th generation inverter focused on the residential market starting in 2016. Solarcity is ramping up energy storage + solar product at the same time, with Elon saying he expects a ten fold increase in sales to occur in 2016, this inverter is set to also significantly reduce install costs at scale Solarcity is aiming for. If Solarcity only aims for 60% compounding in 2016 were looking at close to 1.5-1.6GW of installs requiring many, many inverters. maybe this is one reason Solarcity is quite confident about reaching 2.50/watt all in cost.

 

[SBenson]

the stock drop is related to what is happening with buffet/nv energy in Nevada and Koch/Aps utitlity in Arizona today. This is full on war against distributed solar right now. State sponsored for profit monopoly vs. competitve market distributed solar... For retail energy sales.

This is insightful. How and where can we follow developments in this space? Conventional news wires don't show much.

 

[Lump]

This is what the other Gigafactory looks like - Fortune

 

[jhm]

Solaredge sales to Solarcity equate to 20% of ALL solaredge sales. Solareedge just reported they are introducing a new 3rd generation inverter that will cut a 100kw job from 5 inverters to 3 inverters. They expect this to cut costs in a significant way. Solarcity recently activated a $1bln dollar fund for commercial installs. I conclude this 3rd generation inverter will be used and will significantly reduce install times and costs.

solaredge also said they have a 4th generation inverter focused on the residential market starting in 2016. Solarcity is ramping up energy storage + solar product at the same time, with Elon saying he expects a ten fold increase in sales to occur in 2016, this inverter is set to also significantly reduce install costs at scale Solarcity is aiming for. If Solarcity only aims for 60% compounding in 2016 were looking at close to 1.5-1.6GW of installs requiring many, many inverters. maybe this is one reason Solarcity is quite confident about reaching 2.50/watt all in cost.

Foghat, I'm glad you're following SolerEdge, too.

I just listened to their fiscal Q4 2015 conference call. So here are my highlights.

They have had an amazing quarter and year. FY revenue is up 144% over prior year, and gross margin is at 28.7%. EPS is $1.09, so the SP has shot upto $32. (I regret that I own but 100 shares!)

The Tesla-ready inverters will come on market calendar Q4 this year. This is right in line with Powerwalls hitting the market as well. SolarEdge seems quite proud of their partnership with Tesla. I love this for the Tesla ecosystem.

They have been using a contract manufacturer in Hungary and have successfully built out a fully automated line. They are excited about developing automated lines in different regions.

They are building their own factory in Mexico. This will use automated lines. It will reduce shipping costs to North America.

Finally, they have brought commercial inverters, 25 to 33 kW range to market. They have had great success with residential segments, and now this will expand their reach into the commercial segment.

So all these points are good news for SolarCity. The Tesla-ready inverters will support both grid-tied and backup solar applications. The fab in Mexico should reduce transport costs for SolarCity and may coordinate well with expansion into Mexico.

SolarEdge is growing faster than the industry and faster than even SolarCity. Thus, rolling out automated lines needs to be aggressive, far beyond the Mexico plant. I have a hunch that Tesla's Gigafactory or SolarCity's Riverbend (or thereabouts) could become a host to a few automated lines. This connects with Musk's factory-as-a-product view. SolarEdge can satisfy customers by setting up dedicated lines with its customers. So this is my speculative prediction, and you've heard it here first.

Finally, SolarEdge's advances in commercial scale inverters could support SolarCity's efforts to grow in that segment. I'm very excited to see strong technological leadership here. SolarEdge is clearly on the distributed side of the solar industry. They will help close the price gap with utility solar.

 

[gene]

Though not much of a price change, After Hours trading is over 500,000 shares, Seems like a lot to me!