This is utility scale (which is, frankly, Solar City's biggest competitor). The bids were incredibly cheap. GTM is quite right to expect a massive boom in installations as a result.
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Elon is beginning to sell the "Master Plan". It is the aggregation of renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy efficiency (think LED lighting) that will disrupt the entire energy industry. I want my children and grandchildren vested in this transition. The declining cost basis of solar panels and LED lighting foretell batteries and EVs.
This will sound nay-sayer but is also realistic. It will take some time but the utilities and markets, like PJM, need to think ahead. It looks like the growth in new ICE vehicles sold is larger than the total Plug In market in the USA. See data here. Meaning, more new ICE sold "in addition" to the prior year's sales outpace total plug-ins. They need to see that balance change so that more new plug-ins are sold per year than the growth in the ICE market to indicate a ground-swell. Especially in China where the # of new ICE per year is far bigger than the # of new EV. China wants to do something about it - they know things are not looking good. Companies in the China sales regions are rapidly responding, which is good. Not that the quality is good but that they are offering some lower-priced vehicles for the lower-paid population to choose from.
It's much like when a family decides not to have children due to the growing population - there are dozens of nearby families out there having lots more children. Especially those indoctrinated by religions who "help" using scripture to facilitate growth. The "fix" is that government mandates get stronger for plug-ins, their prices fall dramatically, fuel for them is visibly much cheaper, the public charging grows far more extensive and the culture begins to adopt the change. All of that has to happen including showing how buying a Solar PV is the right thing to do when you add an EV or two to the family. My own Solar PV array makes far more kWh than I use in the car. And if you cannot add Solar PV, there should be supportive laws to support community solar where shares in a solar farm can be bought and apply for the ITC for your portion. We subsidize farmers to make or not make crops, to pour milk down the drain, etc. Why not subsidize them well to use half of their land for solar and wind? I don't even think we need farmers that much. Use the scrub land of the mid-west through western states.
Interesting stats today - the breakdown of top Solar cities. It can also show the top-heaviness of CA.
Report Ranks Top Solar States Of 2015 :: Solar Industry
It's much like when a family decides not to have children due to the growing population - there are dozens of nearby families out there having lots more children. Especially those indoctrinated by religions who "help" using scripture to facilitate growth. The "fix" is that government mandates get stronger for plug-ins, their prices fall dramatically, fuel for them is visibly much cheaper, the public charging grows far more extensive and the culture begins to adopt the change. All of that has to happen including showing how buying a Solar PV is the right thing to do when you add an EV or two to the family. My own Solar PV array makes far more kWh than I use in the car. And if you cannot add Solar PV, there should be supportive laws to support community solar where shares in a solar farm can be bought and apply for the ITC for your portion. We subsidize farmers to make or not make crops, to pour milk down the drain, etc. Why not subsidize them well to use half of their land for solar and wind? I don't even think we need farmers that much. Use the scrub land of the mid-west through western states.
Interesting stats today - the breakdown of top Solar cities. It can also show the top-heaviness of CA.
Report Ranks Top Solar States Of 2015 :: Solar Industry
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jhm
Well-Known Member
That's true, but is quite good that the country is opening up to solar. Distributed solar is essentially competing against the cost of transmission and distribution. So it will find niches virtually everywhere. Another thing is that Mexico has a federal virtual net metering law that is very favorable for allowing industrial and commercial entities set up generation assets anywhere and send power through the grid to where it is used. So virtually every business could tap into utility scale solar wherever it is cheap.
There may even be ways to tap this for residential. Imagine a massive GW scale solar farm where you own say 4327 W of its solar and 7789 Wh of its storage. So you get to use virtual net metering to access that at your home or business. This is sort of a timeshare type of model.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
So I'm reading that SCTY is planning to ramp the entire 1GW of Buffalo capacity at once rather than in chunks like the TSLA gigafactory. Should be a big boost in the fall.
Skotty
2014 S P85 | 2023 F-150L
I wish they would expand into more states. I would be FAR more likely to put solar PV on my roof in Missouri if I could get Solar City to do it. Honestly, I don't really trust anyone else.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Put-call parity is broken down in SolarCity options. For example, implied volatility for an ATM Call April 22 is about 0.75, but for Puts IV is about 1.20.
This is a telltale sign that shares are very expensive to borrow and puts are in very high demand.
I do not recommend buying options when IV is high, but this may be an interesting opportunity to write a put contract.
Regardless, SolarCity is gaining in share price even as sorts are desperate enough to pay a large premium for puts. So we've got strong buying pressure that shorts cannot tamp down.
"The suspense is terrible. I hope it'll last."
This is a telltale sign that shares are very expensive to borrow and puts are in very high demand.
I do not recommend buying options when IV is high, but this may be an interesting opportunity to write a put contract.
Regardless, SolarCity is gaining in share price even as sorts are desperate enough to pay a large premium for puts. So we've got strong buying pressure that shorts cannot tamp down.
"The suspense is terrible. I hope it'll last."
Donors seek to harness Hollywood to boost liberal causes
The focus of Tesla from the beginning was to build a compelling car. I have always believed that the challenge of climate change and Tesla's "Master Plan" ought to be told as a compelling story. Since West Los Angeles is the center of Tesla's world, since it is inhabited by an amazing population of progressives committed to advocacy of good earth tenets, since these same folks are in fact the most renown storytellers of history, doesn't it follow that they would volunteer to tell the tale, spin the yarn, film the story.
Consider for a moment, the finest screenwriters, the world's best actors, the most talented cinematographers in industry coming together for a project driven by passion. Coming together to change the world.
Just thinking out loud.
The focus of Tesla from the beginning was to build a compelling car. I have always believed that the challenge of climate change and Tesla's "Master Plan" ought to be told as a compelling story. Since West Los Angeles is the center of Tesla's world, since it is inhabited by an amazing population of progressives committed to advocacy of good earth tenets, since these same folks are in fact the most renown storytellers of history, doesn't it follow that they would volunteer to tell the tale, spin the yarn, film the story.
Consider for a moment, the finest screenwriters, the world's best actors, the most talented cinematographers in industry coming together for a project driven by passion. Coming together to change the world.
Just thinking out loud.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
It's an awfully big leap to set up in new markets that don't have substantial state subsidy and substantial existing demand. Very much a Catch 22. This is why install costs, and most importantly customer acquisition costs, need to come down rapidly and they are to a degree. SCTY can afford to set up shop in Missouri without state subsidy so long as all the customer simply sign up online and they don't need to have people sit in your house and convince you to buy. That's the issue.
That's the beauty of the SCTY PPA model and their value proposition. They're taking the hard road now so that when things get a bit more mainstream they are up to scale, have been around forever, provide the best product and therefore engender the greatest level trust from potential customers.
It's starting to look like there will be no other PPA option operating nationwide in the summer of 2018 and it'll be a massive undertaking to build up such an operation without outsourcing the most of the work-effort in the years that follow. Their premium will be easily justified and they will have no real competition. Yikes.
gigglehertz
Member
gigglehertz
Member
LOL I was just reading a Morningstar Quantitative Equity Report of SCTY dated 6 Apr 2016 and it referred to the solar ITC dropping down to 10% in 2017 under the Bear View summary. I get that these might not be updated very frequently but it referenced an analyst note from Andrew Bischof, CFA, Eq. Analyst, 11 February 2016 which explicitly states "We believe the solar investment tax credit continues after dropping to 10% in 2017." Are these analysts really that clueless about the companies and industries that they rate? How many companies does a typical analyst rate? Are they overwhelmed and going off of skimmed quarterly reports? Are they phoning it in? I feel infinitely more educated just reading this forum.
doggusfluffy
Closed
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
SCTY expands into Western PA. It would be an interesting exercise to guess why SCTY is willing to move into a fracking state like PA where grid prices are super low.
Also, Pittsburgh is going to be an active market in the west, but Philadelphia still has no SCTY while the immediate Philly suburbs do. Unions? To many flat roofs? Poverty/avg credit rating?
Also, Pittsburgh is going to be an active market in the west, but Philadelphia still has no SCTY while the immediate Philly suburbs do. Unions? To many flat roofs? Poverty/avg credit rating?
Philly has issues. One thing is 4% Earnings tax for operating in city limits. With a tight margin business, that won't work.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Wage tax is for employees and more than offset by much lower property taxes. It has to be unions, not wanting to deal with the customer base, permitting process...
Though the base of operations is in the suburbs, so perhaps the extra wage tax hit for working jobs in the city would need to be considered. I was just surprised. It'll be interesting to see if they start doing commercial installs, but not residential.
davecolene0606
Member
What I just wrote to Senator Nelson (my rep):
Message:
Senator Nelson, I'm worried about why you have a hold on the energy legislation currently being considered by the senate. I understand and agree that further fossil,fuel exploitation especially offshore drilling is not desirable. However, if we hold up legislation the further encourages solar and wind penetration as well as energy commerce rules we may be missing the opportunity to put the final nails in the coffin of fossil fuels. I believe we are toes over the precipice of a clear economic advantage of alternatives to fossil fuels. Right now Tesla Motors per KWH cost of storage is very close to breaking the sub $100 per KWH level. The completion of,its first gigafactory in Nevada is all that is needed to achieve this level and lower. Storage at this price point and capacity that the factory will bring on will end the argument on an economic basis. I now see that the way to end offshore drilling and our fossil fuel economy is to strangle it by allowing solar wind+storage to be unimpeded by utility monopoly rules and regulations that make it difficult and/or illegal for distributed energy to take hold. As you know the utilities in FL have a deceitful ballot measure to cement their monopoly, stop free market capitalism and dismantle the current net metering laws on the fall ballot. Federal policy on energy to stop the state to state differences may be the key to defeating the incredibly strong forces lobbying for their very economic fossil fuel legacy business models. This economic change must be shown for what it is, an economic boom machine that will be and is unstoppable. Again, between wind/solar+storage and sustainable transportation (EV's) all aggressively becoming economically available to middle income America, this is the train that will end the threat of further drilling/fracking etc. as it just flat out becomes a non business solution. Remember what happened to,the whaling industry when "rock oil" displaced it and what happened to horses. They were RUN OVER by fossil fuels for both cost and convenience. Last week 325000 people put down $1,000 for a compelling, affordable American built car, virtually sight unseen! This is one canary in the coal mine that must heeded. It is also a path to accomplishing the task of transitioning to the Fusion (solar/wind+storage) which will result in the desirable consequence of drilling offshore becoming economically unviable. Boom problem solved. Please press hard to make this legislatively possible. We have voted with our pocket books and enjoyed having the sun provide almost all of household and transportation energy needs via 12KW of solar utility intertie and 2 Tesla Model S's. This is for my daughters and their generation. Please, let's make the next gen say "those guys gave us a gift" Thanx Dave Israel (U and Patrick... gotta keep ya in DC)
Message:
Senator Nelson, I'm worried about why you have a hold on the energy legislation currently being considered by the senate. I understand and agree that further fossil,fuel exploitation especially offshore drilling is not desirable. However, if we hold up legislation the further encourages solar and wind penetration as well as energy commerce rules we may be missing the opportunity to put the final nails in the coffin of fossil fuels. I believe we are toes over the precipice of a clear economic advantage of alternatives to fossil fuels. Right now Tesla Motors per KWH cost of storage is very close to breaking the sub $100 per KWH level. The completion of,its first gigafactory in Nevada is all that is needed to achieve this level and lower. Storage at this price point and capacity that the factory will bring on will end the argument on an economic basis. I now see that the way to end offshore drilling and our fossil fuel economy is to strangle it by allowing solar wind+storage to be unimpeded by utility monopoly rules and regulations that make it difficult and/or illegal for distributed energy to take hold. As you know the utilities in FL have a deceitful ballot measure to cement their monopoly, stop free market capitalism and dismantle the current net metering laws on the fall ballot. Federal policy on energy to stop the state to state differences may be the key to defeating the incredibly strong forces lobbying for their very economic fossil fuel legacy business models. This economic change must be shown for what it is, an economic boom machine that will be and is unstoppable. Again, between wind/solar+storage and sustainable transportation (EV's) all aggressively becoming economically available to middle income America, this is the train that will end the threat of further drilling/fracking etc. as it just flat out becomes a non business solution. Remember what happened to,the whaling industry when "rock oil" displaced it and what happened to horses. They were RUN OVER by fossil fuels for both cost and convenience. Last week 325000 people put down $1,000 for a compelling, affordable American built car, virtually sight unseen! This is one canary in the coal mine that must heeded. It is also a path to accomplishing the task of transitioning to the Fusion (solar/wind+storage) which will result in the desirable consequence of drilling offshore becoming economically unviable. Boom problem solved. Please press hard to make this legislatively possible. We have voted with our pocket books and enjoyed having the sun provide almost all of household and transportation energy needs via 12KW of solar utility intertie and 2 Tesla Model S's. This is for my daughters and their generation. Please, let's make the next gen say "those guys gave us a gift" Thanx Dave Israel (U and Patrick... gotta keep ya in DC)
Senate Energy Bill Still To Clear Hurdles Before Floor Action; Renewables in FAA Reauthorization; Methane on the March | Capital Thinking
Our do-nothing congress continues to do nothing.
Davecolene0606 you have my respect for possessing the strength of character to act upon your convictions. Well done Sir.
Our do-nothing congress continues to do nothing.
Davecolene0606 you have my respect for possessing the strength of character to act upon your convictions. Well done Sir.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
What happens to the Flint bill and the net metering grandfather rules if these tax break extensions are achieved through amendment of the FCC bill?
There's a big thing in the House on Wednesday regarding the Flint water crisis, hopefully public outrage spurs the bill through the Senate.
There's a big thing in the House on Wednesday regarding the Flint water crisis, hopefully public outrage spurs the bill through the Senate.
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