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SLS - On the Scent of Inevitable Capitulation

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SLS - Artemis I - Demo Mission

Launch Date: November 16
Launch Window: 1:04-3:04 a.m. EST (0604-0804 GMT)
Launch site: LC-39B, Kennedy Space Center, Florida
Core Booster Recovery: Expended
Booster: Expended
Fairings: New - Expended
Mass: 73,735 lbs (with Launch Abort System) - Lunar Injection Mass = 58,467 lbs.
Orbit: TLI

NASA’s Space Launch System heavy-lift rocket will launch on its first test flight with an uncrewed Orion spacecraft. The mission, known as Artemis 1, will place the Orion spacecraft into orbit around the moon before the capsule returns to Earth for splashdown in the Pacific Ocean. Ten small CubeSat rideshare payloads will also launch on the Artemis 1 mission.

 
From the Eric Berger article that @dhanson865 linked to:
From the publicly available data, however, it appears that the rocket was exposed to wind gusts near, at, or above 74.4 knots for several hours on Thursday morning. A peak gust of 87 knots was reported on the National Weather Service site, with multiple gusts above NASA's design levels. It is possible that the 74.4-knot design limit has some margin built into it.

The space agency is incorrect to suggest that forecasters did not predict such winds from Nicole. The reality is that wind speed probability forecasts from the National Hurricane Center allowed for the possibility of winds that high, even if they were not the most likely scenario. On Tuesday, shortly before NASA issued its blog post update downplaying the risks to Artemis I from Nicole, the National Hurricane Center predicted a 15 percent chance of hurricane-force winds near Kennedy Space Center, which would have produced gusts similar to those measured Thursday morning at the launch site.
And by the way, Berger is a trained meteorologist. He’s not just making stuff up.
 
Eric Berger concludes his article by saying that it takes about three days to prepare and then move the SLS back to the protection of the VAB so they had to make that decision Sunday, when:

At the time, the most likely outcome, predicted by forecasters, was that the rocket would have been exposed to 40-knot winds.
The key is “most likely”, which is nothing like “for sure”. And when you are talking about a vehicle worth $4 billion, do you just want to go with “it will probably be okay”?
From the space agency's vantage point on Sunday, there was clearly a non-zero risk of damaging winds to the rocket, but it was low, probably less than 5 percent. Rolling the rocket back at the time would have taken away several launch attempts, and perhaps even wiped out the entire November launch period, for the long-awaited Artemis I mission. If the launch was delayed into December, that would have opened up a host of other problems for the agency, perhaps most critically that its certification of the solid rocket booster lifetime—these massive powder-based boosters have been stacked for nearly two years—was about to expire.
Those factors apparently outweighed the “it will probably be okay” factor.
 
Here's the link to the 100 mph claim made in the Orlando Sentinel. Artemis I endures 100 mph gust on launch pad during Nicole landfall
Thanks. From that article:
The weather sensors on a tower at LC 39-B record wind data among other things at various heights every five minutes, posted to kscweather.ksc.nasa.gov. The SLS stands 321 feet tall and the 600-foot-tall tower sensors are as high as 459 feet up.

At 4:15 a.m., one sensor recorded a maximum gust of 100 mph. The average wind at that time was 85 mph.

At lower heights, though, the wind was not as severe. At 134 feet at that time, a sensor recorded a gust of 81 mph and sustained winds of 67 mph.
The tower’s tallest sensors saw gusts between 90-100 mph several times between 3 and 5 a.m. but sustained winds more in the 50-60 mph range closer to the ground.
And this morning Eric Berger wrote:
According to Phil Metzger, an engineer who worked on the space shuttle program for NASA, the most likely concern will be the structural integrity of the rocket after being exposed to prolonged periods of high winds. A rocket is designed to go upward, so although its structure can endure intense pressure and winds in a vertical direction, it is not designed to withstand similar winds in the horizontal direction.

In a series of tweets, Metzger predicted that it will be a busy couple of weeks for structural engineers to assess the risks of damage from the storm and potentially seek waivers to fly the vehicle after its exposure to these loads. This will be a difficult task. There is no ability to X-ray the structures inside the rocket, so this process will involve running, and re-running, structural calculations. At some point the program's leadership will have to decide whether the risk—which includes the potential for the rocket to break apart during launch—is too high to fly without further inspections or remedial work.
NBC News in Florida reports:
“Camera inspections show very minor damage such as loose caulk and tears in weather coverings,” said Jim Free, NASA’s Associate Administrator for Exploration Systems Development. “The team will conduct additional onsite walk-down inspections of the vehicle soon.” “While wind sensors at the launch pad detected peak wind gusts of up to 82 mph at the 60-foot level, this is within the rocket’s capability,” Free said. “We anticipate clearing the vehicle for those conditions shortly,” he added.
That contradicts the report by the Orlando Sentinel stating that kscweather.ksc.nasa.gov showed gusts of 90-100mph several times. Does Jim Free not know what NASA’s own sensors recorded?
 
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There is an extensive discussion of how the hurricane may have impacted the SLS and what wind speeds it experienced here https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53923.1540

It is being argued in that thread that the recorded wind gusts exceeding about 80kn were at the 475ft (MSL) level (at the tip of the vehicle) not at the 230ft level. If that is the case, the peak gusts at lower levels did not exceed NASA’s design criteria.
 
Question from the club of dummies here:

For rockets that run on solid propellant, is the propellant loaded into the tanks well ahead in the VAB before rolling onto the pad, or is it loaded at the pad just before launch like liquid propellants?
 
Question from the club of dummies here:

For rockets that run on solid propellant, is the propellant loaded into the tanks well ahead in the VAB before rolling onto the pad, or is it loaded at the pad just before launch like liquid propellants?
Boosters always have propellant from the factory. They get assembled after each section is made and filled with the stuff
warning: didn't vett video, but it's Scott.
 
Question from the club of dummies here:

For rockets that run on solid propellant, is the propellant loaded into the tanks well ahead in the VAB before rolling onto the pad, or is it loaded at the pad just before launch like liquid propellants?
Neither. As @mongo noted, solid rocket boosters (SRBs) are manufactured — with propellant loaded in them — long before the complete vehicle is assembled. The Scott Manley video is a good one, as usual.

SRBs are so last century; SpaceX has never used them. They are not rapidly reusable and make the overall vehicle design more complex and costly.
 
Neither. As @mongo noted, solid rocket boosters (SRBs) are manufactured — with propellant loaded in them — long before the complete vehicle is assembled. The Scott Manley video is a good one, as usual.

SRBs are so last century; SpaceX has never used them. They are not rapidly reusable and make the overall vehicle design more complex and costly.
Also, they can't be throttled. Once you light them, they're going up in flames.
 
For rockets that run on solid propellant, is the propellant loaded into the tanks well ahead in the VAB before rolling onto the pad, or is it loaded at the pad just before launch like liquid propellants?

As @mongo notes, it's done in advance of the final launch campaign. The propellant is basically mixed up as a ~liquid and then is poured into the stage casings to cure, then at some point the booster is transported to and installed on the vehicle during final assembly. In the US solid propellant preparation is generally (always?) just done at an offsite assembly factory, notably in Utah. Interestingly, for The French they actually pour at the launch site (at least for the P120 which is the main stage on Vega and the side boosters on A6). The stage casings are built in Europe and then just shipped empty on the Ariane boat that perpetually goes back and forth to South America. Much more logistically and cost efficient to do all the actual propellant handling at CSG.

SRBs...They are not rapidly reusable and make the overall vehicle design more complex and costly.

Not actually true. SRBs are cheaper and way less complex than chemical propulsion; their current day application (Atlas/Vulcan, Ariane 6, H3) results in a less expensive and less complex vehicle than an otherwise technologically equivalent performing all-chemical vehicle.

Make no mistake, solids are great. They're all but dead nuts reliable, they enable performance scaling of a vehicle rather than having an over performing vehicle for most missions, AND they're actually WAY easier/cheaper/more efficient to handle/deal with than a chemical solution too.

The reason they're not "rapidly reusable" is not rooted in their technology, but in the a) top level specifications to which they are used and the b) entities that are using them. Nobody reuses them these days because they're so cheap to begin with (The STS case study is not applicable, among other reasons because it's 40 years old...), and of course the entities using solids these days are not forward leaning into reusability so there's no effort going into actually making them reusable. Where we are with the level of effort being put into solid reusability to-date, trying to reuse them would be like preferring to retread your passenger car tires rather than buying a new set...

The real big downside with solids, by far, is total burn time. It's simply impractical to make a solid or series of solids that can do The Whole Thing, so at some point you need a chemical solution regardless (unless you're Minotaur-C...). In many cases (Falcon/SS/NG/TerranR/etc) the decision was made to not augment that chemical performance with solids in an effort to keep the total launch system more streamlined. It does take a bit of effort to stand up solid capability, and so those entities have decided that it's better bypass that exercise to just eat the "launching an oversized rocket" inefficiency.

Also, they can't be throttled. Once you light them, they're going up in flames.

In reality, it's a non-issue...and not completely true either. Solid motors thrust can be tuned based on the size and shape of the combustion chamber and so can contribute to thrust adjustment for things like mass burn-down, atmospheric phases, etc. What they can't do practically is deeper and control loop throttling (like a liquid motor), but that functionality is simply not required for any practical solid motor use case.

Also, fun fact, there's a number of research entities out there trying to crack the restartable egg on solids. Not so useful on launch (it's not a practical use case), but as a cheap and not complex solution for something like a cubesat deorbiting solution, it could make a lot of sense.
 
As @mongo notes, it's done in advance of the final launch campaign. The propellant is basically mixed up as a ~liquid and then is poured into the stage casings to cure, then at some point the booster is transported to and installed on the vehicle during final assembly. In the US solid propellant preparation is generally (always?) just done at an offsite assembly factory, notably in Utah. Interestingly, for The French they actually pour at the launch site (at least for the P120 which is the main stage on Vega and the side boosters on A6). The stage casings are built in Europe and then just shipped empty on the Ariane boat that perpetually goes back and forth to South America. Much more logistically and cost efficient to do all the actual propellant handling at CSG.



Not actually true. SRBs are cheaper and way less complex than chemical propulsion; their current day application (Atlas/Vulcan, Ariane 6, H3) results in a less expensive and less complex vehicle than an otherwise technologically equivalent performing all-chemical vehicle.

Make no mistake, solids are great. They're all but dead nuts reliable, they enable performance scaling of a vehicle rather than having an over performing vehicle for most missions, AND they're actually WAY easier/cheaper/more efficient to handle/deal with than a chemical solution too.

The reason they're not "rapidly reusable" is not rooted in their technology, but in the a) top level specifications to which they are used and the b) entities that are using them. Nobody reuses them these days because they're so cheap to begin with (The STS case study is not applicable, among other reasons because it's 40 years old...), and of course the entities using solids these days are not forward leaning into reusability so there's no effort going into actually making them reusable. Where we are with the level of effort being put into solid reusability to-date, trying to reuse them would be like preferring to retread your passenger car tires rather than buying a new set...

The real big downside with solids, by far, is total burn time. It's simply impractical to make a solid or series of solids that can do The Whole Thing, so at some point you need a chemical solution regardless (unless you're Minotaur-C...). In many cases (Falcon/SS/NG/TerranR/etc) the decision was made to not augment that chemical performance with solids in an effort to keep the total launch system more streamlined. It does take a bit of effort to stand up solid capability, and so those entities have decided that it's better bypass that exercise to just eat the "launching an oversized rocket" inefficiency.



In reality, it's a non-issue...and not completely true either. Solid motors thrust can be tuned based on the size and shape of the combustion chamber and so can contribute to thrust adjustment for things like mass burn-down, atmospheric phases, etc. What they can't do practically is deeper and control loop throttling (like a liquid motor), but that functionality is simply not required for any practical solid motor use case.

Also, fun fact, there's a number of research entities out there trying to crack the restartable egg on solids. Not so useful on launch (it's not a practical use case), but as a cheap and not complex solution for something like a cubesat deorbiting solution, it could make a lot of sense.
I would think that solid fuel would work well for deorbiting cubesats. When it comes time, just point it and light it.
 
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I think the point is you can't do the level of throttling required to do a booster landing, which requires precise cut-off, shutdown and restart at various stages.
SRBs have zero throttling capability. I did not mention that aspect in my post #393 upthread because in theory one could design a vehicle that used them during initial ascent, then jettisoned them (for later recovery, like the shuttle did) and a fully reusable first and second stage continued on to orbit. That design could result in a fully reusable vehicle but it would be more complex, more costly, and slower to turn around and reuse than what SpaceX plans for Starship.
 
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I think the point is you can't do the level of throttling required to do a booster landing, which requires precise cut-off, shutdown and restart at various stages.

I don't get that re-reading, but either way, that's a bit of a pointless point. ;)
Analogy: Your Tesla can't haul an 80,000lb load.

It's probably also worth noting that you could certainly conceive of a solid that does deep and control-loop throttling, cut off, and shutdown/restart. Plenty of people have thought about that kind of functionality, specifically because of the advantageous cost and complexity of solid fuel over chemical, and there's certainly proof of concept hardware out there demonstrating at least some degree of those functions. Landing a rocket is an extreme case of that and so, yeah, technology isn't there yet. And chemical solutions provide upside on other parts of the mission over solids also so there's not a ton of potential upside pursuing a 100% solid launch-land rocket.

But, if for instance SX put ***SpaceX Properly Done*** solids on something like Falcon Heavy (instead of the side boosters) they'd definitely end up with a vehicle--for equivalent performance--that's cheaper and less complex. Similar thing if the Falcon core stage was smaller and had augmenting SRBs.

SS aspirational use case of once or twice a day (or whatever) doesn't lend itself to picking up pieces from over there and bolting them back onto the rocket over here, so form that perspective it makes sense to have it all consolidated in one thing. That said, their more realistic use case of something similar to the Falcon launch rate could certainly benefit in cost and complexity from ***SpaceX Properly Done*** SRBs.
 
Whenever I hear any news about these solid rocket boosters, it takes me back to January 1986. While STS each had two SRBs, consisting of four segments (often refurbished), a five segment stack is used for SLS. More parts, O-ring seals, $$$, all tossed away into the Atlantic.
They recovered and re-used the shuttle SRBs. Are they not planning to recover the SLS ones?
 
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