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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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So SolarCity is busy merging ahead of the merger. If anyone doubts that the merger will go through:

SolarCity names Radford Small CFO
SolarCity names Radford Small CFO

Tanguy Serra, President and CFO of SolarCity is leaving the company at the end of the year, after the merger goes through.

I think one thing's for sure - if the merger doesn't go thru SCTY will be left scrambling. They are obviously planning for it to happen.
 
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From that article



Why do they not give the record date to a WSJ journalist while the IR VP has no issue emailing to (no disrespect intended, @vgrinshpun) a random user of this board when asked the question?!?

Vlad is a highly qualified analyst who happens to share his work here. The WSJ is a random collection of idiots trying to make a buck. I'm not sure what merits a response from Tesla IR, but I'm sure Vlad is as qualified as they come.
 
So SolarCity is busy merging ahead of the merger. If anyone doubts that the merger will go through:

SolarCity names Radford Small CFO
SolarCity names Radford Small CFO

Tanguy Serra, President and CFO of SolarCity is leaving the company at the end of the year, after the merger goes through.

Yup, the merger is a lock at this point. I can't believe the arbitrage is still so profitable, but I'm not complaining!
 
What would put the bulls in the driver's seat would be a dip like we're seeing now and then a really strong climb immediately thereafter. At some point this week I think we're going to see a strong climb.

Keep looking for volume. The volume is pathetic, like everyone is waiting for something to happen. Not likely to see a significant move up without volume. Perhaps next week when we have the delivery numbers. Analysts coming in at 22,000 deliveries gives us a nice target.
 
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Interesting Barron blog about Fremont ... the sizzle is getting louder:

http://www.barrons.com/articles/BL-SWB-44867

New construction at Fremont?! First I'm hearing of this. I assumed Model3 assembly line would be within the existing factory walls. Same with Robotic build-in-white weld line...

Can anyone uncover what the NEW construction will be for?
 
Paris Motor Show Is Electric!
The Paris Motor Show opens to the press only, tomorrow.

There appears to be a lot of plug-in cars getting announced... and a lot less vapourware-ish than say, the Porsche Mission E or anything Audi has shown so far.

There could be some negative pressure on Tesla through the rest of the week from this, only because the press like to hammer the encumbent leader, and this is an excellent chance for them to hammer Tesla, or at least make things look scary (which is what you do to get viewers & readers).

Regular visitors to this forum all know that this is exactly Elon's plan. Here he is, dressed in a scary-looking dark outfit, discussing the state of the electric car business...
 
Interesting Barron blog about Fremont ... the sizzle is getting louder:

http://www.barrons.com/articles/BL-SWB-44867

EDIT: This article is suspect ... it may actually be referring to Gigafactory construction.

New construction at Fremont?! First I'm hearing of this. I assumed Model3 assembly line would be within the existing factory walls. Same with Robotic build-in-white weld line...

Can anyone uncover what the NEW construction will be for?

That same article confused Model X and Model 3, so, yeah, I would ignore that article...
 
Is it really though? PHEVs are a total half-measure in every sense.

A PHEV from an incumbent does not a threat to TSLA constitute. What it does represent though, is as much EV as they can muster without turning their back on their ICEV investments. Its further evidence to support that they really won't be able to do anything to curb TSLA's massive lead because of how tied to ICEVs they are.

The new Renault ZOE is a pretty good attempt, albeit its closer to a Bolt competitor than a Model 3 competitor. But it too struggles. At 41kWh, its 200mi range is impressive - except that it achieves it by using an anemic powertrain. I suspect it will ultimately sell worse than the Opel Ampera-E (EU Bolt).
 
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It looks like cell interconnections within the pack allow for lower internal resistance and likely lower cost. The cooling changes are likely lead to *reduction* of energy expended on cooling, i.e. became more efficient, so in order to take advantage of this, components of cooling system outside of the battery pack needed to be re-designed.

Where did you get this info? It sounds interesting (doesn't have anything to so with the stock price, just technical curiosity).
 
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Is it really though? PHEVs are a total half-measure in every sense.

A PHEV from an incumbent does not a threat to TSLA constitute. What it does represent though, is as much EV as they can muster without turning their back on their ICEV investments. Its further evidence to support that they really won't be able to do anything to curb TSLA's massive lead because of how tied to ICEVs they are.

The new Renault ZOE is a pretty good attempt, albeit its closer to a Bolt competitor than a Model 3 competitor. But it too struggles. At 41kWh, its 200mi range is impressive - except that it achieves it by using an anemic powertrain. I suspect it will ultimately sell worse than the Opel Ampera-E (EU Bolt).

The way I look at PHEV's - they can be a gargantuan contributor to reducing CO2 emissions (if everybody drove their first 30 miles each day on electricity, that would kneecap the gas industry). So they're a good thing.

As a TSLA investor, I also welcome PHEV's, because every study I've seen, and most comments I've experienced first hand by driver's of PHEV's is that their aspirational car is a Tesla / full EV. Driving electric has that kind of an effect on people.

As an investor, I see more EVs and more PHEVs as tackling the primary limiter on TSLA demand - awareness of the company.


The day will surely come when the industry has matured (or is closer), where more EVs is more competition (and might actually negatively effect Tesla production and deliveries). This isn't that day (IMO).
 
So SolarCity is busy merging ahead of the merger. If anyone doubts that the merger will go through:

SolarCity names Radford Small CFO

I agree. Hiring Radford as a Small CFO indicates confidence that the deal will go through.

I haven't heard the title of "Small CFO" before, but it makes sense to hire one if you believe the merger will go through. You don't need a regular CFO in the interim period and you can more easily integrate a Small CFO into the combined entity
 
I'm wondering if today's close will be 206.99. The shorts (or bears, if you prefer) lack the horsepower to take TSLA too far into the red today, and attempts to climb much above 207 today have so far met resistance. We're presently dipping below 207 but I think it will likely come back up and either stay there or break out in a much bigger way. Without volume, particularly as we get into the thin-trading afternoon hours, a breakout becomes more difficult.
 
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Interesting Barron blog about Fremont ... the sizzle is getting louder:

http://www.barrons.com/articles/BL-SWB-44867

EDIT: This article is suspect ... it may actually be referring to Gigafactory construction.
http://i.imgur.com/WzomZci.jpg

I guess I should have posted here, but I figured the information others had would have been superior. Yes, Tesla is building more at their Fremont factory site. If you zoom in on Google Earth (hint: it's easy to spot from way up, so you don't have to type any sort of address -- just zoom to North America, California, San Francisco Bay Area, then look for the big factory by the lower right bay --- yes, that one, that HUGE one, the biggest one there), you can see the fields to the North and South. The ones in the South have been taken by one if its old suppliers (although seems to me they could get it back), but the ones in the North (above linked picture) are being developed; they took out that nice old concrete Kato Road that used to be in the property and free of outside traffic, and are running the new development right up to the edge of the public roadways, from what I can tell; I don't know if those will be gates, buildings, landscaping, or what, but for certain they'll have less buffer zone with that field gone. I half think that they're building factory the full lot, but I don't know. Anybody who needs to know could probably pull the plans from city & county government sites. Right now, that empty black parking lot in Google Earth is overflowing full of cars (supplier, employee, new product and customer) and delivery activity, so it's a decent question whether or not they'll ever replace parking with factory, so that's why I can't comment on the veracity of the doubling figure (EDIT: it seems pretty clear they made that up and it is not true); to come up with doubling, one would have to add in that parking lot, and some more from the rest of the property --- it would be a stretch. There is more field to the north of the northern public road that if they added that could tip the balance, but it would still require reappropriating a lot of existing parking lot and/or the southern fields too. If they don't already own it, I'm sure they're not going to pay the ransom price someone's probably trying to sell it for. If anything, Tesla would use it as a reason to spread to other areas, so they aren't just in one area.

Someone already posted a flyover video here a few weeks ago. That should have most of what I described, but I forget how much.

Speaking of nits in that article, "Model X" should be "Model 3".
I am guessing that this article is in error. I think it is referring to Gigafactory! They have misinterpreted a comparison to the size of Fremont to be the location of the construction .... sorry I teferenced it ... I will note suspicions in my post ...
Yes, so we know GF is getting almost double as of new development in the last handful of months, and we also know Fremont factory is getting larger, but we don't know exactly what they're doing in Fremont, and that article said double, and I don't see double in Fremont. You could be right. That article is full of holes, one way or the other.

Tesla Gigafactory: new aerial shots show plant more than doubling in size [September 2016 update]

I think the writer of the errored article might have confused that Electrek article with Fremont, and done bad background research. Maybe they heard someone saw construction equipment at Fremont and they just took some words and ran.


In terms of the layout of the Fremont factory land as it's currently (pre-Model 3) being used, there are a lot of opportunities for efficiency improvement if they're building anything, and they're definitely building something (even if it's a mound of dirt ... hard to assume that that's all it would be). For instance, what if they put the delivery center and service center in the new development near to where the cars currently come out? Do we even know whether Tesla is always going to have all the cars come out that end? There is so much we do not know. Indeed, I hope some of the best minds are probably inventing these answers today, yesterday and tomorrow as we speak.
 
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