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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Lots on folks think Superchargers are a competive barrier

It's a $20m investment for US network. Not a 1B investment.

Gigafactory? That's a big investment and competitive advantage by Tesla, BYD, etc

Supercharging capable cars are the barrier. AFAIK Bolt is 50kW. Nowhere close to Tesla. No supercharging capable cars = no superchargers and vice versa. Chicken meet egg.
 
This is why looking at base price to compare cars is ridiculous. The Model 3 is likely to have all that as standard in the 35k price (yes, likely SC enabled for free, but charging will cost money, just like with the Bolt). The true test is to take the higher base-optioned car (sounds like it'll be the Tesla), then option up the lesser optioned car until it achieves approximate parity, and THEN compare price. I bet you get a lot more car for the money with Tesla. Looks like GM just wants to win the media headline game in its pricing.
Oh, most definitely. I keep harping on the Autopilot software, but just taking into account the fact that I can buy a base Model 3 and later on down the road pay a fee to turn the software on is leaps and bounds ahead of the Bolt. This is part of what makes Tesla the leader.
 
Because on Thursday after hours Tesla indicated that record date, subject to SEC review of the filings, will be during the week of September 19th. Since recall of lent shares allows institutions to assert their share ownership in order to vote, it need to be completed 3 days before the record date. Only entities that own TSLA shares 3 days before the record date are considered to be SH for the purposes of the vote and are allowed to vote on the acquisition.

I think you likely know this, but I just wanted to add a little detail for other readers.

A securities lender need only terminate the loan 3 days prior to record date. It doesn't need to actually have received the securities until the record date. The borrower is required to return the securities on the 3rd day after recall.

It's the same thing as any buyer/seller. E.g., if I buy shares today or tomorrow of either SolarCity or Tesla, I will be able to vote the securities even if the record date is on Monday since I will receive the shares on Friday or Monday (T+3). Similarly, assuming the borrower performs*, I can terminate a securities loan (i.e., initiate the recall) as late as tomorrow and I will be okay since I will receive my shares back on Monday.

* The big question in my mind is what happens if the borrower doesn't perform. The lender's agent should start to buy-in after the 3rd day. However, if that happens, the borrower might not get the shares in time. Similarly, shorts should start to try and cover the moment their shares are recalled since they will be on the hook if the lender buys-in.

Reality check. Having continued to think about this, I'm not convinced the recall will happen. Although that's really only because mutual fund companies aren't as disciplined about governance matters as they are about investing.

What mystifies me more is why shorts would still be in this trade. The risk of a recall squeeze is real (even if it's unlikely) and they could get really burned. As a steadfast Tesla long, I'm likely not the best judge of whether shorts are intelligent, but I just don't understand this aspect. I would have been backing out of the short trade ever since the merger agreement was signed.

Now, for some strictly fun conjecture about a likely very illegal move.... Tesla and SolarCity could actually fuel a recall short squeeze by waiting to set the record date.

1. If they hear from their large institutional shareholders that they are having trouble recalling shares (this communication is probably the illegal part although I struggle to understand why), they could decide to push the record date to the end of the week and announce as such on Monday, the 19th.

2. This will allow those shareholders/lenders to force buy-in of their lent securities and still receive their shares in time to vote (e.g., buy-in would occur on Tuesday and squeeze would begin in force).
Of course, Tesla/SolarCity could have already set themselves up for that without any illegal shenanigans. By giving a range of a week for the record date, they allow lenders to wait until tomorrow to initiate a recall. On Monday, they announce that record date will be Friday, the 23rd. Buy-in happens on the 20th and lenders have actual Tesla and SolarCity shares on Friday.
 
It took Tesla years to build it out and, btw, it's few hundred superchargers, but over 4000.
Agreed. I think it's a timing issue rather than strictly an expense issue. It takes a lot of time and corporate resources (not just $$$) to identify suitable sites, negotiate with the landlord and various interests, sign up the construction crew, build it, get all the permits, do all the work with nav/whoever to make sure buyers are aware of the chargers, etc.

Anyone can drop $100MM on developing this, but it's the hard work involved (with little direct return on investment figures that you can point investors towards) that will be a deterrent.
 
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Yes, My point was a couple hundred in US is sufficient to start with for a small fleet. This is exactly what tesla did.

It's a multi year build-out ONLY because of small fleet size. Not because it's stupid expensive for GM

Get it?

While Tesla is still growing it's network and has no plans stopping at over 4000 - you claim few hundred will make a difference? I don't get it :)
 
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While Tesla is still growing it's network and has no plans stopping at over 4000 - you claim few hundred will make a difference? I don't get it :)

I'll try one more time to explain a different way:

1) There's no point for GM to build a network of thousands of DC fast charge stations until their EV fleet grows. They are just starting to sell Bolt this year

Agree?

2). Cost for a single DC fast charge station is ~ $100k (per Tesla disclosure for around 8 stalls)

Agree?
 
Chanos... Shut your pie hole

And cue Chanosugar "M3 will cost 50-60% more then 35k" "like 45k" "all Tesla's non drivable at base price soo"
"Tesla will be out of cash by Christmas" "M3 will never be delivered for 35k"
From the Gallery..... stunned silence......pause "aren't you afraid of shorting a cult stock?"
Chanosugar: "Elon excepted it's mostly institutionly held"
Gallery: "oooooohhhhhh your brilliant"
Chanosugar: "Elon said his rocket attacked by aliens!" "He's running a circus!"
Gallery: ooooooooohhhhhhh! Your an unquestionable God, can you stay and tell us how China will fail?"

What a maroon, What a nincowpoop

:confused::confused::confused::p
 
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And cue Chanosugar "M3 will cost 50-60% more then 35k" "like 45k" "all Tesla's non drivable at base price soo"
"Tesla will be out of cash by Christmas" "M3 will never be delivered for 35k"
From the Gallery..... stunned silence......pause "aren't you afraid of shorting a cult stock?"
Chanosugar: "Elon excepted it's mostly institutionly held"
Gallery: "oooooohhhhhh your brilliant"
Chanosugar: "Elon said his rocket attacked by aliens!" "He's running a circus!"
Gallery: ooooooooohhhhhhh! Your an unquestionable God, can you stay and tell us how China will fail?"

What a maroon, What a nincowpoop

:confused::confused::confused::p
Fine by me, keep poking the bear Chanos. Elon isn't afraid to respond in kind.
 
I'll try one more time to explain a different way:

1) There's no point for GM to build a network of thousands of DC fast charge stations until their EV fleet grows. They are just starting to sell Bolt this year

Agree?

2). Cost for a single DC fast charge station is ~ $100k (per Tesla disclosure for around 8 stalls)

Agree?
I kind of disagree with point 1. It worked for Tesla because there was no long range alternative. For GM, they are competing with someone who has a SC network. As an EV buyer, I have to be convinced by GM to overlook Tesla's advantage here. On that basis alone I'd never buy a Bolt so they never have the opportunity to capture me as a buyer who will patiently wait for the chance to drive it more than 100 miles in one direction without sweating profusely or slow charging.
 
I'll try one more time to explain a different way:

1) There's no point for GM to build a network of thousands of DC fast charge stations until their EV fleet grows. They are just starting to sell Bolt this year

Agree?

2). Cost for a single DC fast charge station is ~ $100k (per Tesla disclosure for around 8 stalls)

Agree?

Advantage that Tesla has is it's network, >4000 chargers strong. Even with this number of chargers already operational, Tesla has plans for more. Until GM has that many charging stations advantage stays with Tesla.

Also, Tesla designs their cars to be efficient at highway speeds allowing for larger distance between charging stations. Bolt has lower highway range and would require denser charging network than Tesla.
 
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What mystifies me more is why shorts would still be in this trade. The risk of a recall squeeze is real (even if it's unlikely) and they could get really burned. As a steadfast Tesla long, I'm likely not the best judge of whether shorts are intelligent, but I just don't understand this aspect. I would have been backing out of the short trade ever since the merger agreement was signed.

From the Borowitz Report (link tweeted by Elon today):

The research, conducted by the University of Minnesota, identifies a virulent strain of humans who are virtually immune to any form of verifiable knowledge, leaving scientists at a loss as to how to combat them.

“These humans appear to have all the faculties necessary to receive and process information,” Davis Logsdon, one of the scientists who contributed to the study, said. “And yet, somehow, they have developed defenses that, for all intents and purposes, have rendered those faculties totally inactive.”

More worryingly, Logsdon said, “As facts have multiplied, their defenses against those facts have only grown more powerful.”

While scientists have no clear understanding of the mechanisms that prevent the fact-resistant humans from absorbing data, they theorize that the strain may have developed the ability to intercept and discard information en route from the auditory nerve to the brain. “The normal functions of human consciousness have been completely nullified,” Logsdon said.
 
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