Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[vgrinshpun]

Well I expect a stealth release of both. There is a LOT of chatter about new 90's being secret 100's already, due to a mysterious power output increase. Also the 1.0 AP hardware was stealth released so it's reasonable to think they would do it again. They might really not know the final config. New mirror housings are already reflecting 2 camera spots, but only populated with one camera. My feeling is they may start sticking in the sensors they know they will eventually need as soon as they can. So maybe in Sept they start making cars with new radar sensors, extra cameras and say nothing because the SW isn't done and they aren't totally sure they have the HW right.

What is puzzling with the theory that 90 is actually software limited 100 is why would not go public with it? I get that Osborning possible only among the engaged and itching, but that population could easily be 10% or more. These 10% could be the difference between 2000 cars/week and 2200 they really need to bolster their cash position and appearance of being in control of near term planning.

Do they still working on validation before announcing the new battery size? Are there any other complications? It looks like time is running out for this upgrade to have meaningful contribution to the top and bottom line in 2016.

 

[austinEV]

Here is the article from Electrek suggesting that new 90's have higher output:

Tesla is secretly adding over 50 hp to the Model S P90D Ludicrous based on 3rd party testing, what does it mean?

One explanation is that they are SW limited 100's.

 

[austinEV]

What is puzzling with the theory that 90 is actually software limited 100 is why would not go public with it? I get that Osborning possible only among the engaged and itching, but that population could easily be 10% or more. These 10% could be the difference between 2000 cars/week and 2200 they really need to bolster their cash position and appearance of being in control of near term planning.

Do they still working on validation before announcing the new battery size? Are there any other complications? It looks like time is running out for this upgrade to have meaningful contribution to the top and bottom line in 2016.

The idea is that the sell secret 100's until the old chemistry is consumed, probably meaning all consumers have taken delivery. To avoid the most pissed off buyers they want to avoid delivering old, real, 90's AFTER they announce the 100. So you can imagine that old 90's might be in the pipeline all over the world. So they deliver the last of the 90's, wait a week or two then go public. Or the "100" chemistry cells are ramping up and they simply cannot replace the whole output right now. So like 50% are secret 100's, and they have to sit on their hands until the capacity catches up.

LAST time we said they probably had to take all of Panasonics pre-90 inventory, which is why the 90 was secret. but this time that makes less sense since the TE products could consume the old cell inventory. I think this is all supply chain management to avoid pissed off customers.

Edit: To answer your question, being hasty would be worse for the bottom line. There would be huge disruption in quarterly deliveries if 2000 buyers were mad and wanted a real 100. So you have to balance that agains the demand generation of the 100 announcement.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The idea is that the sell secret 100's until the old chemistry is consumed, probably meaning all consumers have taken delivery. To avoid the most pissed off buyers they want to avoid delivering old, real, 90's AFTER they announce the 100. So you can imagine that old 90's might be in the pipeline all over the world. So they deliver the last of the 90's, wait a week or two then go public. Or the "100" chemistry cells are ramping up and they simply cannot replace the whole output right now. So like 50% are secret 100's, and they have to sit on their hands until the capacity catches up.

LAST time we said they probably had to take all of Panasonics pre-90 inventory, which is why the 90 was secret. but this time that makes less sense since the TE products could consume the old cell inventory. I think this is all supply chain management to avoid pissed off customers.

Edit: To answer your question, being hasty would be worse for the bottom line. There would be huge disruption in quarterly deliveries if 2000 buyers were mad and wanted a real 100. So you have to balance that agains the demand generation of the 100 announcement.

Well, if they already started using 100kWh packs, but install them in say 50% of cars, there will be pissed customers for sure because future retroactive announcement will not apply to everybody.

It seems that whatever the details are, there are some supply, engineering or validation restrains they are dealing with. Given that they guided for an increase of 2200 cars/week in Q3 I would think that the original plan was to introduce the battery refresh in August, because if they do it in September it would be too late to have an impact in Q3.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Tesla stock is unbelievably weak and can't hold its ground. More down days from here?

What are you taking about? Is this your first trade ever?

 

[austinEV]

Well, if they already started using 100kWh packs, but install them in say 50% of cars, there will be pissed customers for sure because future retroactive announcement will not apply to everybody.

It seems that whatever the details are, there are some supply, engineering or validation restrains they are dealing with. Given that they guided for an increase of 2200 cars/week in Q3 I would think that the original plan was to introduce the battery refresh in August, because if they do it in September it would be too late to have an impact in Q3.

My theory is they won't announce until the pipeline is 100% flushed. The nightmare scenario is that Panasonics output is 50/50 and will be for 6 months. So TM cannot announce early without "bubble" customer anger. Hopefully that is soon. I guess one way out of the 50/50 scenario is to batch so that the output for 2-3 weeks is 100% new cells, long enough to flush the line, then go public with a premium 100/cheaper 90 kWh option. NEW 90 buyers have no cause to be mad, and can consume the old cells.

Edit: lots of edits That option would require a hefty premium price on the 100 to discourage sales enough to match capacity.

Also this might be an awkward time to change/flush since the first month of quarters is higher overseas sales. Those deliveries have the longest pipeline. In the last weeks of the quarters they can prioritize CA sales and be nimble.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

All we need is for Tesla to finally confirm who one or two of its strategic partners are and the amount of money that will be injected/invested into Tesla as part of the partnership. This is one gigantic catalyst no-one has mentioned. Too many BS analysts, including the BIGGEST BS artist (Mark B Spiegel), who is NOT an analyst, still think Tesla is lying about having strategic partners.

If Tesla's only problem is needing cash to accelerate its operations, Tesla doesn't have any problems. There is $2 trillion + on the sidelines, for companies doing what Tesla is doing. Not to mention TRILLIONS from sovereign wealth funds that will be reallocated into companies such as Tesla in the very near future.

BEST POST IN WEEKS

 

[RobStark]

. I remember watching Jeff Dahn's presentation and he was very clear that electrolytes are the "secret sauce" of batteries.

 

[Krugerrand]

It really can't. The problem is too complex to solve without overall system optimization approach from the ground up, with reasonably good results in a reasonable timeframe. Connecting black boxes into a system and then optimizing this system by letting internal teams that designed black boxes duke it out across the different companies will take forever and produce poor results. There is a reason Mobil Eye is not involved in Tesla Auto Pilot development any more...

Well clearly it would have to be a cooperative effort by both companies. I assumed they'd start from the ground up - together. If you don't think that's possible, then it can't be done. If you think it is possible, it could be.

What Tesla does is based on the leaders of the company having a very, very, very clear focus and path they want to follow to get to the end. Their partnership philosophy is work with us our way, or get out of our way. Perhaps Ford and Google could work from a more equal starting point.

To be clear, I'm not holding my breath that Ford, with or without Google, will succeed to Tesla's level of autonomy in the time frame.

 

[MonroeSS]

And don't forget GM which has been bailed out multiple times including a very recent bankruptcy

Very true and they are trying to learn from the mistake. They are focusing on margins, not volume. They are cutting low margin fleet sales by the hundreds of thousands. Mary Barra is considered among the best auto executives of our time. No small feat getting profit up from $4.7B in 2010 to $10B in 2015 with fewer sales, not to mention getting the company through the ignition recall %$%^storm.

Ford, GM Top Global Profit Charts With Volkswagen Lagging

Current Tesla is operationally no different from GM of 2009. Neither made any money but one was able to raise capital freely from investors while the other couldn't because it's investors saw no future. Uncle Sam had to bail them out because not even JC himself could get a loan, especially for $50B.

Pushing volume at the cost of margins to please wall st has always been a losing strategy. Interesting times we live in.

 

[madodel]

I agree with MonroeSS on the ZEV credit front. each credit is worth at most $x to Tesla, but for GM, each credit can be leveraged towards the sale of more profitable trucks/SUV's, making it possible for GM to literally give away all the bolts and still be net profitable. The 30-40k bolts per year sales goal is simply their objective to be able to sell all the trucks they can (look at all the car makers whose sedans and economy car sales have tanked while their truck/suv sales have grown - with record profits to boot!). If sales of the bolt falls below expectations, they'll simply discount the car until sales rise again. A $10k discount per bolt, translates to only a $300 million hit to their bottom line. That's the game their playing and why they don't care.

They may have to pay people to drive them off their lots. They really lack any curb appeal.

 

[madodel]

View attachment 190524

+100 for the reference to Idiocracy.

 

[RobStark]

. Mary Barra is considered among the best auto executives of our time.

According to who?

She became GM CEO on Jan 15,2014.

It is way way too soon to make such proclamations.

 

[BobSk]

Mary Barra is considered among the best auto executives of our time.

I feel it's ridiculous to make that claim on a Tesla board. We know who is the best, nobody else is in that group.

 

[pGo]

Well I expect a stealth release of both. There is a LOT of chatter about new 90's being secret 100's already, due to a mysterious power output increase. Also the 1.0 AP hardware was stealth released so it's reasonable to think they would do it again. They might really not know the final config. New mirror housings are already reflecting 2 camera spots, but only populated with one camera. My feeling is they may start sticking in the sensors they know they will eventually need as soon as they can. So maybe in Sept they start making cars with new radar sensors, extra cameras and say nothing because the SW isn't done and they aren't totally sure they have the HW right.

My concern is that if the cat came out of the hat too soon too early. What if Tesla is not yet ready to make an announcement on AP2.0? Regarding 100D, I see a lot more people are waiting for AP2.0 than 100D.

 

[AlMc]

Lots of discussion going on about this:
AP 2.0 ready ?

 

[FredTMC]

Lots of discussion going on about this:
AP 2.0 ready ?

Very interesting. Thanks to guy who made video...

Wondering if all MX to date have this extra coaxial for cameras AND wondering if they also have wire-harnesses pre-wired for the rumored corner radars.

 

[Fallenone]

SolarCity slashing costs, including CEO pay

SCTY starting to let people go and reducing CEO/CTO combined salary from 550k to 2.

Making the right moves IMO.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

They may have to pay people to drive them off their lots. They really lack any curb appeal.

Nissan was able to convince me and 50k others to spend $18k on a short-range BEV. Curb appeal will not be a problem.

Frankly, the bolt isn't going to affect TSLA anymore (old news).

 

[TMSE]

SolarCity slashing costs, including CEO pay

SCTY starting to let people go and reducing CEO/CTO combined salary from 550k to 2.

Making the right moves IMO.

They are going to layoff some folks. If the cost savings from reduced expenses is about $300m/year, that alone is enough synergy to justify $2.6b acquisition.