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mmd
Active Member
Do you understand what a short position is? Accumulating shares leads to a long position, not short. What you just described is "buy the rumor, sell the news". Suggest you read up what short position is from the links I posted earlier.
GM is actually focusing on margins and profits, not volume. Volume is down YOY. GM sent 88,500 fewer cars in the 1H to rental agencies. But your point stands- two different companies. Once is a growth is everything, grow at all costs company. The other is a mature, margins and net profits are everything company(especially given their history). GM in 2016 may double their record net income of last year considering 1H net income of $4.9B is more than double 1H 2015 net income of $2B. Tesla's net income in 2016 may double too, to the wrong side, but that is expected at this point.
To all the luddites panicking about a jobless future: By freeing up drivers we gain human capital to go tackle something else that we humans deem "too hard, too expensive". Environmental cleanup? Can't afford it! Building housing in underprivileged areas? Who will do that? There is no reason to cling to old jobs that can be automated, we can move on to things we never thought we would have time for. In the same way that if you bought a robot to do your job, you would suddenly have time to fix up your house, learn french, volunteer for a political committee, get a second degree, etc. Society is better off for that change.
Humanity used to have to employ most effort just in farming to keep people fed. That got more efficient. Then people moved to manufacturing basic items, clothes for instance. That got more efficient. We aren't running out of problems to tackle. I look forward to the day when today's jobs are automated and we are working on interstellar spacecraft, coral reef rehab, pure science, whatever.
Pick up Peter F Hamilton's "commonwealth" books (Pandora's star to start). They lay out a future with high automation but there is still lots to do. It is a fairly optimistic vision with some real texture.
Humanity used to have to employ most effort just in farming to keep people fed. That got more efficient. Then people moved to manufacturing basic items, clothes for instance. That got more efficient. We aren't running out of problems to tackle. I look forward to the day when today's jobs are automated and we are working on interstellar spacecraft, coral reef rehab, pure science, whatever.
Pick up Peter F Hamilton's "commonwealth" books (Pandora's star to start). They lay out a future with high automation but there is still lots to do. It is a fairly optimistic vision with some real texture.
If they wanted to incorporate natural gas and turbines (hypothetical since I know Tesla will never release a car/vehicle that isn't full battery), they could achieve 1,200 miles+
See: Nikola Motor Company | Premium Electric Vehicles
It's expected though. There are no financial implications and he would just be picking even more numbers out of the sky. This blog post (similar to part 1) is really about goal setting and furthering the vision. On the plus side for us, people still "don't get Tesla." Elon has essentially turned Tesla Motors to Tesla (or as I like to refer to it-- Musk Industries).
Right now everybody is focusing on the capital required to get there like it's going to happen immediately. It took 10 years since Master Plan Part 1 to get to this point. Wall street is treating it as if cash burn will be occurring all at once and the vision never being recognized at all. Can't have it both ways. If cash burn goes up, you better believe that the revenue projections will go up.
For me the biggest things are:
- Capping your Model Lineup's bare minimum (not going further down market), ensuring a bare minimum level of gross margin for internally generated cash flow
- Making factories a product (I can totally see Tesla selling robots to others)
- Breaking into Public Transport (via Bus and ride-sharing)
- Getting into the commercial trucking industry (let's say hypothetically they don't do national trucking, but use these vehicles for things like... Fedex or the post office-- this is huge)
- Sustainable energy creation (end to end- not just storage)
More importantly, what people need to see is that this entire blog post was written in chronological plan order as of right now. We know autonomy is going to take a couple years to get legally approved so the public transport and ride hailing are years ahead. What's near term is energy storage and the semi (autopilot will decrease truck driver fatigue significantly and get more efficiency out of drivers).
Yep, agreed with all points. I just can't believe that people aren't smart enough to realize Elon's SMP1 was published in 2006 and is JUST NOW on the cusp of completion (as you stated). Obviously, knowing that, one can rightly infer that at the absolute minimum this SPM2 is 10 years out!
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I think this highlights a real and serious cultural disconnect between those in the tech industry and the average working man of "Middle America".
You're going to tell a 50-55 year old truck driver that the loss of his job is a good thing because he can go shovel toxic sludge or volunteer to build houses for people? Really? This makes no sense from that person's standpoint: he's got to earn a living. Maybe he's got kids in college. Who is going to pay for him to do this? The government?
Learning French and picking up another college degree (assuming he even has a bachelor's to begin with)? Most people in America won't have the privilege of doing this if they don't have a good income.
Also, just because a job is "old" or can be automated doesn't mean it doesn't have value to the person who worked that job. For a lot of people, their work is part of their identity and a source of dignity.
I believe that most people here at TMC mean well, but a lot of what I read honestly sounds tone deaf to the values and concerns of average working Americans.
Everything is cyclical though and times change... When the industrial revolution kicked off, did those in extreme manual labor positions complain when the majority were laid off thanks to innovations that required less manual input and more reliance on machines of the time? Sure maybe at first, but people adapted, just like they'll have to now. You don't see anyone complaining about not having to hand-assemble Ford Model N cars anymore.
I think market is worried about the CAPEX requirement for this SMP2 which is a 10 year plan. Capex is gradual, internally sourced and for the Semi and the bus.
There is no Capex required for Shared mobility and further development of Autopilot. It is part of ongoing R&D and Opex.
There is no Capex required for Shared mobility and further development of Autopilot. It is part of ongoing R&D and Opex.
If Roadster paid for Model S, and Model S and Model X are helping to pay for Model 3, what do they think the Model 3 will help pay for...? AN ELON-THEMED WATERPARK THE SIZE OF TEXAS! /sarcasm
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yes, one of the underappreciated virtues of renewable energy, DERs and EVs is that they source local energy and reduce the need to import fossil fuels. This is particularly critical for developing economies.
For example, India has been struggling with a trade deficit that has been devaluing the Rupee. A big chunk of this deficit was for importing coal. They have found within the last year that developing solar is cheaper than adding new coal plants and importing coal. The solar PPAs are in Rupees so there is no devaluation stemming from this local energy. Moreover they are able to reduce their trade deficit by $3B/yr by not importing so much coal. Within two years they will be a net exporter of coal with practically no imports. This will strengthen the Rupee and the Indian economy as a whole. EVs will further this trend and enable India to reduce its petroleum imports as well.
The thing about renewables displacing fossil fuels is that it will impact international trade rapidly as net importers find that domestic sources suffice. Indeed net importers like the US could become net exporters and further saturate seaborne markets. The US, a net exporter of coal, is on its way to becoming a net exporter of natural gas and finished petroleum products. LNG export is the market of last resort for surplus gas. So what happen as the global trade in fossil fuels declines and all countries are more energy self-sufficient. Shipping declines double. First shipping of the fuels declines, but second shipping of counter-trade, export goods that balance the importation of fuels, also declines. This transition will send enormous shock waves through the global economy. A lot less global trade will be required. It will look like a recession even as the standard of living generally improves. Economies that depend on energy exports will suffer the most. China will need to export fewer goods because it will need to import less energy to grow its economy.
I would submit that Musk is not looking to electrify shipping at this time in part because shipping will be in decline. LNG in the midst of a global glut will have plenty of challenges replacing a fleet of vessels that is in decline. Likewise electrifying air transport may not be so attractive if hyperloop starts to displace air travel. How about trains? They mostly transport coal and crude. So Tesla can't do everything. There are markets that will go into decline over the next 10 to 20 years, and Tesla does well to avoid these markets.
Everything is cyclical though and times change... When the industrial revolution kicked off, did those in extreme manual labor positions complain when the majority were laid off thanks to innovations that required less manual input and more reliance on machines of the time? Sure maybe at first, but people adapted, just like they'll have to now. You don't see anyone complaining about not having to hand-assemble Ford Model N cars anymore.
Two posts in a row from tanner that I have actually liked. What is happening?
Can't wait for that waterpark.
The thing is, the idea of a life where you learn something, do it forever and live a safe, comfortable life and never need to learn anything new is and has always been a lie. Perhaps back when the pace of technological improvement was centuries instead of decades that was true, long ago (though certainly not the safety part).
Society has always improved and the lowest forms of labor have always been moved up a rung or two on the ladder. The people who resist and just wish for the way things used to be always get left behind and is because that's not how reality works.
I work in tech and programming. It's a great place to be right now. In a few years strong AI will likely dry up much of the work in this area and I'll be forced to retrain (already am in fact). It's a fact of life.
We are almost certainly within 100 years of a time when we have either destroyed all human life or improved medicine to the point where we are effectively immortal. People will need to adapt to that, you will have many, many careers. You will have and use many skills that become utterly useless.
That's the reality, it's always been the reality. We need programs to help people transition, but at some point for the people who decide they don't want to put forth the effort to advance with the works, they will get left behind and it will largely be themselves to blame.
I think this is true for the 55 year old segment of the population. Would it be naive to assume this segment would/should have saved enough to retire just 5 years until retirement? In any industrial revolution, there would be a segment of society that will be disenfranchised, sure. The vast majority of the working segment will still have a chance to learn the new in demand skills brought about by this new technological upheaval. They might not like it but in all facets of life, you adapt else you don't survive. Government too will play a huge role in building this safety net to ensure minimalising a welfare state.
So in short, everyone will have to do their part to ensure their relevance is ensured.
To your point on the 50-55 truck driver. Yeah, I expect they will retrain. This shift will actually improve their lives by allowing them to find a livelihood that doesn't keep them away from their families constantly, badly damage their physical health by forcing then to sit still constantly, and requires almost no legitimate skills aside from being able to put up with the above. They will be able to be healthier, have healthier relationships, and do something more fulfilling that moving stuff for other people simply because we didn't have a better way of doing it yet.
Many will buy several trucks and start their own autonomous fleet, making money while freeing themselves up to work on other things, things that create jobs for others rather than just sucking away at the time they have on earth.
Many will buy several trucks and start their own autonomous fleet, making money while freeing themselves up to work on other things, things that create jobs for others rather than just sucking away at the time they have on earth.
dandurston
Member
Interesting there is no roadster in SMP2. Either it's not coming, or it's not an importance piece. With all Tesla has on their plate, I'm okay with it being the former.
The capitol requirements concerns for this plan are a fair critique. I think some of this comes because of the speed Tesla plans to move towards the Semi and bus. Their plan reads like they'll have Model 3, Model 3, Tesla Pickup, Tesla Semi and Tesla Bus all out around 2020.
The capitol requirements concerns for this plan are a fair critique. I think some of this comes because of the speed Tesla plans to move towards the Semi and bus. Their plan reads like they'll have Model 3, Model 3, Tesla Pickup, Tesla Semi and Tesla Bus all out around 2020.
Damn it is a sell on news day again. Why don't I learn the lesson? Why many of you were saying today it is going to up $5, $10, and one even said $20? Well, again... when everybody is optimistic, it is the peak.
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