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With all of the negative PR events, ER release, Sales and delivery problems, SP is likely to test the lows of January.
Not today it isn't... downright warm. Lovely day in Oslo.
VanE
Member
Let's hope not. I sold some $220,00 puts last week. I knew it would be a risky trade, but didn't thought that it would linger around the $220,00 for so long.
But I am happy for every second that it's above the $220,00!
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
When they complete their due diligence and present the financial justification, which Elon said will be compelling SCTY and TSLA should both rise and the uncertainty about the merger should be drastically reduced. That means that if you want to take advantage of the merger to get a discount on TSLA you need to act soon. I think that the deal will go through. The risk that I see is that the conversion rate might change. Better or worse, and how much are the risks.
I think hitting 2.4k per week for a quarter with a 50/50 ratio of X to S will definitely move the SP, particularly in conjunction with TE financial results. I think it's a slam dunk that both of these things happen be at the latest the Q1 ER, for TE financials. These two items impact this bottom line which has always moved the SP. Additionally producing 2.4 MS-MX per week should reduce the fears that they can't produce roughly 3x the number of M3's by 2018.
Edit Addition:
I also think that the SP will continue to be volatile until the M3 ramp is in the bag. I'm hoping to have an opportunity to sell my J17's and J18's (our entire portfolio except for one share) at a nice profit, (anything over $240) to buy J19's between November, when they become available, and about March.
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Sparky
Member
Following my 4th stop-loss event in 2 months, I took your advice about a week ago w.r.t. SCTY and bought about 25% as I also recovered TSLA shares .
It has had a moderating effect on TSLA for which I'm grateful.
I'm still setting stop-losses which I hope at some point will be trailing a rise back to $250+.
But, I'm losing faith in the DTU thesis due mostly to the SCTY offer. Short term, without some kind of significant volume, I'll trade some shares in the current range in an attempt to accumulate for a 2017 run-up.
Tesla is a puzzle. They're shipping more cars and executing better than when the share price was +$250 a mere 10 weeks ago yet here we are pushing down on $220 when the market is at ATH. Each quarter, 2 questions seem to grow for every answer provided.
Is there a merger timeline? I'll set my alarm.
Are we disbanding the DTU club?
racer26
Active Member
Also interesting is Elon's bunch of tweets from last night:
Tweets with replies by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter
Seems that they're working on improved AP based on the v1 radar hardware, which will benefit from being able to see through fog.
Tweets with replies by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter
Seems that they're working on improved AP based on the v1 radar hardware, which will benefit from being able to see through fog.
Well it did dip below $220 for a minute or so, glad it's holding above too.Let's hope not. I sold some $220,00 puts last week. I knew it would be a risky trade, but didn't thought that it would linger around the $220,00 for so long.
But I am happy for every second that it's above the $220,00!
I have been using Q1 ER as my reasonable outside limit on when the market will start to "get it" on TE in a way that has a significant impact on SP.
But if needed, this could start to happen much earlier. All Tesla has to do is say:
- we have X GWh or X $ of preorders for PP and PW,
- we project deliveries of X GWh or X $ of PP and PW in 2017
- capacity of GW stage 1 will be X starting in early 2017, which is sufficient to meet our projections
- we plan to build gigafactory phases 2-X on the following schedule, which we believe will allow TE to increase 100%+ in 2018 etc.
Interesting read from Tesla owners on the Tesla site. This is a huge problem. Frustrated owners, and not enough service capacity for the current fleet. The expense of building new capacity, the repeated visits for door problems on the Model X will be huge, in the current quarters. What will it cost if they are able to expand production?
Something for the Bulls and Bears: Valuation Expert Aswath Damodaran Weighs in on Tesla's Stock - Market Realist
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I agree with your Q1 limit, but right now the market is giving zero credibility to Tesla's statements. Which combined with the fact that Tesla hasn't been saying much about TE anyway , is why my outer limit is the Q1 ER.
I generally agree with that and that's why for my own planning I don't expect any serious impact on the SP from TE until Q1 ER. But once the GF is up and running Tesla should have the ability to make statements and/or projections that are so grounded in facts that only irrational or the most skeptical investors would ignore them entirely. That doesn't mean that they will since so far they are not saying much.
It will move it but the question is how much. Just 2400 a week will not mean a ATH from these levels, maybe it would have an impact to get it to $250 again. For TE I think it can take it to next level but only if the revenue is substantial, at-least over $1B on yearly basis.
The problem now is that there is so much cost to cover, with SCTY even more so 2400 a week will go to cover that. The next big leap for the share I think has to come from new products than S and X. My original "investment thesis" or whatever you can call it had that increased S and X production and continued growth into 2017 and 2018 would push it to all time high because it would fund a large part of the CAPEX. That is probably still true but there is just a lot more CAPEX to fund now with Scty and Model 3 moved forward.
I am positive to both Scty and Model 3 production moving forward but I just don't think increased production of S and X are going to take us that much higher anymore.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I think the market is fed up with the promises like that, and rightly so. Model X took way longer to ramp than stated as it was never ready, TE is not going in volumes either so I think everyone is just waiting on real numbers.
As a TSLA investor since 2012, just yesterday morning I was pleased to see three transport trucks full of Model S and Model X headed down Hwy 5 towards Los Angeles. I was on Hwy 5 only for 20 minutes, so if that was either coincidence or there are a lot more transports heading south.
VanE
Member
Nope, I guess they will release the plan somewhere on Saturday.
I'll bite. That's some serious cherry picking. Prof Damodaran isn't a Tesla Bull by any stretch of the imagination. For the "realist" to cite him as one is like having the tea-party calling John McCain a liberal. Way too far down the wrong side.
What is useful from their site [and the only reason why I'm responding to X Yes?] is that Damodaran has raised his PT again on TSLA [to $250]. For those that don't remember, he originally valued TSLA at $67 in Sept 2013, which he revised to $120 in Mar 2014 after seeing new data. Both valuations were a half of what the market was setting the value at.
So has a professor teaching value investing found "value" in TSLA?! Sounds like a pretty clear case of being undervalued to me!!
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