Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[AlMc]

If you are among the less informed, less sophisticated members, I recommend doing more reading and less posting. I try to do this, and have found that I have learned a huge amount in the past 18 months. I have seen nobody here be rude to someone asking a 'stupid' but honest question. This is a great resource for experienced, sophisticated traders/investors and novices alike, but we all get the most out of it if we act according to our role or 'status'.
In areas that I am well versed, I have always found it amazing how much teaching and explaining what I know helps to solidify and reinforce my knowledge, or sometimes to re-evaluate something that I thought I understood well. I am sure that it is also of advantage to the more advanced members to help out the more inexperienced here.

Agreed. When I first came here I took it all in from CapEx, DaveT, ShortSlayer and Sleepyhead and posted very little as I had little to add.
I am not in their league to this day and still learning. Our collective insights and posting links to info we find is what makes this thread special regarding TM/TSLA.

Over time you learn people's particular areas of expertise.

Mine...well, I have not figured that one out yet.

 

[Curt Renz]

U.S. senator asks Tesla to brief committee on Autopilot crash

I'm not clear now whether they have called Tesla to send someone to testify in person or have requested that Tesla submit a brief (written) statement on or before July 29.

Mike

This evening Congress began a recess until after Labor Day. Unless the committee intends to interrupt its recess, the request must be for a written statement.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I personally like @Jayjs20 's questions and comments. I think it's important to have his comments and questions here.

A lot of times the more experienced posters will start to speak in tongues (lingo) or make certain assumptions of the audience. Or reference discussions in the distant past. This can make the thread unreadable.

Newer posters like jayjs will ask what is going on and we can all learn. And yes, my previous comment was tongue in cheek, and a reference to his own previous posts. So please continue to post.

 

[AlMc]

Back to my concerns that I expressed yesterday about DELIVERING 50% more vehicles in H2 vs H1...My reasoning...Service centers are already overloaded:

Tesla service level worse than Comcast | Tesla Motors

 

[dc_h]

Back to my concerns that I expressed yesterday about DELIVERING 50% more vehicles in H2 vs H1...My reasoning...Service centers are already overloaded:

Tesla service level worse than Comcast | Tesla Motors

Why doesn't tesla stick the overflow on a truck and send them to Fremont where they have more room and staff? Sounds like a local issue for their best market.

 

[Turing]

I personally was telling my friends "when Tesla has first AP crash they'll get a ton of bad publicity and that might be a good entry point into TSLA" since AP came out. It doesn't look like any of the recent events are that (AP caused a crash). But we had some serious amount of media hype around this so if the actual worst case scenario event happens they kind of used up a lot of bullets and people won't be as willing to dig into fine details.

In short I think Tesla have been doing this right both from how they framed the feature and how they're executing so far. The recent media attention is not moving he stock much since it isn't based on any mistakes made by Tesla, it's just hype. If anything we're getting a soft landing on AP adoption since we're now in a better position to damage control a real problem if it occurs.

My mom came by my house the other day and mentioned the tesla autopilot fatality when telling me about how she was discussing it with her lunch group, whose husbands apparently all own model s sedans(this group is mostly spouses of doctors plus a few lawyers, also boomers fwiw and CA). At first i was worried that they'd all be freaked out and wanting different cars and i was envisioning running up stairs and selling my shares. But she just said that the consensus was that the driver probably wasn't paying attention while using A/P, unfortunately. I asked if they liked their cars, and she said that they like them a lot. I asked if they used A/P and she said she wasn't sure, but would assume no because they aren't as techie as my generation. Not bad considering...

 

[generalenthu]

The letter from senate is sane, pretty reasonable and comes across as something that doesn't necessarily have an agenda behind it. It's just the regular burden placed on any first mover.

The media echo chamber is nauseating though. Even NPR reported in on the NHTSA prelim evaluation, after reporting on the Nice tragedy this evening and this truly didn't warrant that coverage.

 

[woof]

Elon tweets about EU regulators having no problem with Autopilot when used as directed.

"regulators have no problem with Autopilot"
Translation:

Of course I still love you.​

"when used as directed"
Translation:

Just read the instructions!​

 

[Papafox]

Back to my concerns that I expressed yesterday about DELIVERING 50% more vehicles in H2 vs H1...My reasoning...Service centers are already overloaded:

Tesla service level worse than Comcast | Tesla Motors

I didn't see any mention of the service center crowded with new cars they couldn't get prepped

 

[Papafox]

Elon Musk on Twitter

There's your answer to "How is Tesla going to prevent this type of accident from happening again?"

 

[AlMc]

I didn't see any mention of the service center crowded with new cars they couldn't get prepped

Props for optimism......I don't have quite as much as you on this subject.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

View attachment 185388
Elon Musk on Twitter

There's your answer to "How is Tesla going to prevent this type of accident from happening again?"

Of course! Software! Never thought of that, and that's why the naysayers are dead set on lidar, without understanding why.

 

[MikeC]

Props for optimism......I don't have quite as much as you on this subject.

Is the concern the time it takes to prep a new car or the delivery itself?

The delivery itself just requires staff and a physical place to put the car. The prep can be expedited by having staff work an overnight shift. There are a few service centers that are already running 24 hours. I don't think deliveries will be a bottleneck.

 

[MartinAustin]

Senator John Thune, a South Dakota Republican who heads the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation

Here's a quote from John Thune's energy policy, published here Energy - U.S. Senator John Thune

I believe it is vital we continue to bolster our nation’s energy independence, especially given our nation’s current economic situation. Transitioning to renewable fuels, such as wind energy, ethanol, and biodiesel, helps reduce our dependence on foreign oil while providing a much-needed boost to our economy by creating jobs and decreasing energy costs.

In addition to these homegrown fuels, domestic production of oil and natural gas is a critical component to America’s energy security. Advancements in oil extraction have allowed for expansive oil production from the Bakken formation in neighboring North Dakota, as well as created a need for new infrastructure, such as the Keystone XL pipeline.

So, this guy apparently hasn't heard of solar panels or climate change caused by GHG in the atmosphere and oceans, and loves the idea of fossil fuels continuing to get extracted, pumped around and burned. Ha ha!!!! It would be great for Elon to go confront him and boil Thune alive in his own festering slime - while giving great publicity to Tesla.

THUNE
Thank you for coming Mr. Musk.

MUSK
Thank you for having me here to get lots
of publicity for Tesla, sir.

THUNE
What do you mean?

MUSK
Tesla does not normally advertise, but
thanks to you sir, several channels
of national TV are cutting away from
their normal programming right now to
show THIS.

<stunned silence>
​

The subject of Autopilot would be deftly dealt with by Elon who, unlike most CEOs, does have all the facts to hand, and can put together compelling cases for safety versus risk, etc..

 

[sunhelm]

View attachment 185388
Elon Musk on Twitter

There's your answer to "How is Tesla going to prevent this type of accident from happening again?"

So my layman's understanding of what this means is that they are working on software that will be able to determine stationary versus moving objects, using radar, which will help determine whether an image up front is a newly introduced obstruction (which would be moving) as oppossed to a stationary object , such as a road sign, which would be unmoving over a defined short time period. Is that about right?

 

[AlMc]

Is the concern the time it takes to prep a new car or the delivery itself?

The delivery itself just requires staff and a physical place to put the car. The prep can be expedited by having staff work an overnight shift. There are a few service centers that are already running 24 hours. I don't think deliveries will be a bottleneck.

This is my concern. I have seen no increase in the number of SCs. They have to become 50% more efficient or have 50% more space, IMO, to be able to minimally meet H2 delivery guidance.
There may be some very quiet SCs but many are overbooked for weeks already for service. While the most recent Xs have better QC, they still take much more time than the Ss to prep.
There are only so many service bays, service techs, and delivery personnel.
Yes, TM may make these deliveries but of the three components needed to make the H2 guidance...demand, production and deliveries...I feel the bottleneck right now is the SC/delivery level.

 

[EinSV]

Cross-post from another thread, but Senator Thune, who sent the letter to Tesla, has been supportive of automated driving technologies and making sure the regulatory environment does not stifle innovation. This is from a hearing he chaired in March:

Hands Off: The Future of Self-Driving Cars

"Because so much is possible, we must be careful not to stymie innovation because of a lack of imagination.​

"Federal and state governments may need to rethink how they regulate and license vehicles for the future.​

"We must ensure that the United States remains the cradle of innovation and that we continue to lead the way in the development and deployment of automated vehicles.​

"This morning, the Committee had the great opportunity to see some of this technology in action, when we brought self-drive to Capitol Hill. Continental, Volkswagen, BMW, and Tesla provided vehicles that gave us first-hand experience to see what the future may hold and a preview to the discussions at this hearing."​

​

 

[MikeC]

This is my concern. I have seen no increase in the number of SCs. They have to become 50% more efficient or have 50% more space, IMO, to be able to minimally meet H2 delivery guidance.
There may be some very quiet SCs but many are overbooked for weeks already for service. While the most recent Xs have better QC, they still take much more time than the Ss to prep.
There are only so many service bays, service techs, and delivery personnel.
Yes, TM may make these deliveries but of the three components needed to make the H2 guidance...demand, production and deliveries...I feel the bottleneck right now is the SC/delivery level.

You don't think they would just hire an extra shift to prep cars overnight if it came to that?

I'm not really seeing people reporting that their new car is stuck at the SC and they can't get it delivered. Getting the car serviced after delivery is starting to look like a problem, on the other hand. Maybe they are already prioritizing deliveries over repair of existing cars.

 

[BornToFly]

I couldn't believe it today when just about every headline in Yahoo Finance was about Consumer Reports and others calling for Tesla to disable Autopilot - a feature with 160 Million miles of data that proves accident rates are greatly diminished when it is turned on. Just how stupid are all these critics?!? That is like calling for the elimination of seat belts because one person was trapped in their car by the belt and burned in a fire. Morons!

 

[Papafox]

I couldn't believe it today when just about every headline in Yahoo Finance was about Consumer Reports and others calling for Tesla to disable Autopilot - a feature with 160 Million miles of data that proves accident rates are greatly diminished when it is turned on. Just how stupid are all these critics?!? That is like calling for the elimination of seat belts because one person was trapped in their car by the belt and burned in a fire. Morons!

Let me add to your post, rdalcanto. One of the points of the Consumer Reports piece was that "autopilot" needs to be renamed. Hogwash! Josh Brown was very experienced with using autopilot, and whether it was called autopilot or "hands on drivers-assist only" he would have formulated his opinion of the feature based upon its performance and irrespective of name. The naming issue is just plain silly unless the name is just plain deceptive, such as "autonomous driving." Nonetheless, let's compare this feature to autopilots in airplanes, for a second. I made several autoland approaches during my career as an airline pilot, and we were well versed on the reasons why an autoland could go wrong and we might have to take over manually and initiate a climb with autopilot off. Today's state-of-the-art autopilots cannot safely complete an autoland sometimes and the crew must save the day. Should we disable all aircraft autopilots because the technology is not yet flawless? Of course not. Should we disable Tesla autopilots until the technology is flawless. Same answer.