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TSLA now at 206,5 in Europe (also at nasdaq.com)
But note that the general markets are down. (German DAX at -/- 1,5%)
There were quite a few posts here in the last couple of days that said that the Q3 numbers will definitely be great because TM has 5100 vehicles in the pipeline, and they added those vehicles to the average production rate of Q3. But this is wrong, because TM will always have a certain delivery time and thus the higher the production rate, the more vehicles in the pipeline (or they have to invest in their distribution system).)
I read your views on solar energy with an open mind, now I see you just manipulate . From here onwardsThat's funny because 6 weeks ago I predicted that Tesla would do a push for demand very soon if they had any cards up their sleeve, and lo and behold what happened, what might be the biggest push for demand so far with both the S60 and the $1000 discount.
That's also pretty funny as the bulls are clearly the ones who enjoy the echo chamber and cries out every time someone doesn't agree that it is smooth sailing to a trillion dollar market cap for TSLA. I have never seen a bearish poster say they have put someone on ignore, we are not here to ignore the opposite site of the argument and call them trolls, that would be you.
Other than profit... Which is the Achilles' Heel of the whole industry that Tesla is in. Tesla could produce a million cars a year within 5 years; but that is significantly less than Buick sold in China last year.
Everybody is caught up in the ability of Tesla Growth to even think of if Tesla will be able to differentiate itself, profit wise, compared to the competition.
There were quite a few posts here in the last couple of days that said that the Q3 numbers will definitely be great because TM has 5100 vehicles in the pipeline, and they added those vehicles to the average production rate of Q3. But this is wrong, because TM will always have a certain delivery time and thus the higher the production rate, the more vehicles in the pipeline (or they have to invest in their distribution system).I think that you are partially correct. I think that part of the reason for the high number of undelivered cars is the higher production rate, but it was also due to a substantial number of cars going overseas. In q4 Tesla will do a better job of prioritizing domestic production (they always do).
You're assuming the current number of cars in the pipeline is "correct" relative to the current production. That probably isn't true.There were quite a few posts here in the last couple of days that said that the Q3 numbers will definitely be great because TM has 5100 vehicles in the pipeline, and they added those vehicles to the average production rate of Q3. But this is wrong, because TM will always have a certain delivery time and thus the higher the production rate, the more vehicles in the pipeline (or they have to invest in their distribution system).
If Tesla wants to achieve their minimum goal of 80.000 vehicles delivered in 2016, they need to deliver 80.000-14.820-14.370 = 50.810 vehicles in Q3 and Q4. They said they were able to achieve an output of 2200 vehicles in Q3 and 2400 in Q4. Imagining linear progress this means that they need to deliver 50.810/(2100+2300)*2100 = 24.250 vehicles in Q3 and 26.560 vehicles in Q4.
Having one week downtime in Q3 and using the same delivery time (about 2,5 weeks), TM could deliver:
Using an average of 2000 vehicles per week: ((13-1)*2000)+5150-(5150/2000*2200) = 23.485
Using an average of 2100 vehicles per week: ((13-1)*2100)+5150-(5150/2000*2200) = 24.685
So to deliver the 24.250 vehicles in Q3 they need to produce an average of (24250-(5150-(5150/2000*2200)))/(13-1) = 2064 vehicles a week.
This means that the 80.000 vehicles delivered in 2016 isn't completely of the table, but it will be tough and they can't afford any more hiccups or other big problems on the production line. I try to stay positive and truly hope that they will be able to make it (no pun intended), but I am very skeptical on this years guidance. (but remain very bullish on the long term)
This is a great point (that is guaranteed dislikes). There is very little talk about profitability and margins here, people just assume that 25% is great margins and obviously makes for a very profitable product without understand the size of Tesla's overhead. Amazon has a gross margin of 33%, but they are only slightly net profitable. It will be interesting to see if they can finally stop burning through equity at least in the coming quarters as deliveries reach 20k+.
You're assuming the current number of cars in the pipeline is "correct" relative to the current production. That probably isn't true.
How many cars were in the pipeline at the end of Q4 2015? Maybe 1000? That was with an annual production rate of around 56k. It stands to reason that Tesla could schedule deliveries such that the pipeline would be much closer to empty than what you're assuming. I think something like 2000-4000 cars in the pipeline is reasonable. Let's say 4000 in Q3 and they push it down to 3000 for Q4.
If so, assuming 12 weeks of production and 2000 cars/week, the equation for deliveries in Q3 would be:
((13-1)*2000)+5150-4000 = 25.150
And assuming 12 weeks and 2100 cars/wk in Q4, the equation for Q4 would be:
((13-1)*2100)+4000-3000 = 26.200
Tesla would thus meet guidance by delivering 80.540 vehicles.
This is with a *slight* production ramp, 1 week off in each quarter, and a number of vehicles in the pipeline relative to production which is higher than they have achieved in the past. This isn't an optimistic estimate.